COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If only we still had the Fairness Doctrine, lockdowns and mask mandates almost certainly never would have happened.

Mask mandates were necessary before vaccines, and if you don't think so, then you're just not living in reality.

Then how did Sweden get by without it?

With an absurdly high mortality rate.

But the mortality rate in the U.S. is much worse.

Sweden's CFR was 10%. US was 7% before mandates went into effect, and 2-3% after.

Worldometer says the U.S. is worse.

[Hammy]

If only we still had the Fairness Doctrine, lockdowns and mask mandates almost certainly never would have happened.

Mask mandates were necessary before vaccines, and if you don't think so, then you're just not living in reality.

Then how did Sweden get by without it?

With an absurdly high mortality rate.

But the mortality rate in the U.S. is much worse.

Sweden's CFR was 10%. US was 7% before mandates went into effect, and 2-3% after.

Worldometer says the U.S. is worse.

Yes, the current total cumulative CFR is worse, because Sweden has a higher vaccination rate and smaller population (so far less unvaccinated.) In fact, America's unvaccinated population is 4x the total population of Sweden.

However, early in the pandemic Sweden was significantly higher as a result of their zero restriction policy.

[MT Treasurer]

Since posters here seem to be supporting the Canadian "trucker protest", have a look at yet more extremists taking part:

*snip*

So in this protest, I've now seen flags of
-Nazi Germany
-CSA
-Three Percenters
-QAnon

These are the folks you are siding with now? Are they "very fine people" like Trump used to say? Have you gone crazy? Have COVID restrictions warped your minds to the point that you'll accept any ally in your fight against them?

No offense, computocomp, but this forum contains some of the demographics least susceptible to cheap rhetorical tricks (e.g. excessively emotional rhetoric, loaded questions, sweeping generalizations, distractions from the issue at hand, subtle threats which pit a powerful/'reasonable' collective against the powerless 'outlier'/'irrational' individual) and blatant propaganda, so you’re really wasting your time if you’re going down this path (similarly, the people browsing this forum/thread are unlikely to have their minds changed by this). I think you should stick to statistics and studies, which to the audience you intend to reach can have a far more powerful propagandistic effect (if presented in an appropriate manner) than such tabloid talking points, which one might say work more on the less 'intellectual' and more shallow members of society whose self-esteem is contingent on societal status and approval by the masses. I’m not denying that the approach you opted for in your post isn’t effective on the average member of society/media consumer who fears repercussions from society (and can’t hide behind a random avatar on an obscure online forum), it’s just not going to work on a semi-anonymous, hyper-involved, highly political, predominantly male and young audience like this.

Really telling (one might say revealing) that you would invoke the Canadian trucker protest and the Charlottesville events given that you proclaim to be hyper-focused on the sober presentation of science and purport to have no agenda in this. But good luck anyway — I (and I mean this sincerely) always learn a lot from your posts.

[Donerail]

A newly released study from the California Department of Public Health shows that consistently wearing a mask does protect the wearer. Study was conducted prior to Omicron. Given that most masks are better at protecting others from the wearer than protecting the wearer from others this is a good data point in favor of mask mandates.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7106e1.htm

Neat example of how the game works — you have the big flashy numbers showing how MASKS WORK and then you zoom in on the tiny footnote that says "not statistically significant." What is going on at the CDC??

[FrancoAgo]

A newly released study from the California Department of Public Health shows that consistently wearing a mask does protect the wearer. Study was conducted prior to Omicron. Given that most masks are better at protecting others from the wearer than protecting the wearer from others this is a good data point in favor of mask mandates.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7106e1.htm

Neat example of how the game works — you have the big flashy numbers showing how MASKS WORK and then you zoom in on the tiny footnote that says "not statistically significant." What is going on at the CDC??

the not statistically significant is relative to the cloth mask numbers, probably the cloth mask examples are too low

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If only we still had the Fairness Doctrine, lockdowns and mask mandates almost certainly never would have happened.

Mask mandates were necessary before vaccines, and if you don't think so, then you're just not living in reality.

Then how did Sweden get by without it?

With an absurdly high mortality rate.

But the mortality rate in the U.S. is much worse.

Sweden's CFR was 10%. US was 7% before mandates went into effect, and 2-3% after.

Why would masks have an effect on CFR?  Mask should prevent infection, not death conditional on infection.  In the early stages of the pandemic, CFR was most likely primarily a function of testing capacity, and secondarily population demographics.

[Crumpets]

For some good news, here's an updated map of the 14-day trend in case numbers by state. 10% increments starting at zero (so, 30% = 1-9% growth/decrease, 40% = 10-19% growth/decrease, etc.).

That was Thursday, this is today:

[Leohendo9]

cant believe we are still having these discussions.

[compucomp]

Since posters here seem to be supporting the Canadian "trucker protest", have a look at yet more extremists taking part:

*snip*

So in this protest, I've now seen flags of
-Nazi Germany
-CSA
-Three Percenters
-QAnon

These are the folks you are siding with now? Are they "very fine people" like Trump used to say? Have you gone crazy? Have COVID restrictions warped your minds to the point that you'll accept any ally in your fight against them?

No offense, computocomp, but this forum contains some of the demographics least susceptible to cheap rhetorical tricks (e.g. excessively emotional rhetoric, loaded questions, sweeping generalizations, distractions from the issue at hand, subtle threats which pit a powerful/'reasonable' collective against the powerless 'outlier'/'irrational' individual) and blatant propaganda, so you’re really wasting your time if you’re going down this path (similarly, the people browsing this forum/thread are unlikely to have their minds changed by this). I think you should stick to statistics and studies, which to the audience you intend to reach can have a far more powerful propagandistic effect (if presented in an appropriate manner) than such tabloid talking points, which one might say work more on the less 'intellectual' and more shallow members of society whose self-esteem is contingent on societal status and approval by the masses. I’m not denying that the approach you opted for in your post isn’t effective on the average member of society/media consumer who fears repercussions from society (and can’t hide behind a random avatar on an obscure online forum), it’s just not going to work on a semi-anonymous, hyper-involved, highly political, predominantly male and young audience like this.

Really telling (one might say revealing) that you would invoke the Canadian trucker protest and the Charlottesville events given that you proclaim to be hyper-focused on the sober presentation of science and purport to have no agenda in this. But good luck anyway — I (and I mean this sincerely) always learn a lot from your posts.

I definitely am biased and have an agenda with regard to the Canadian trucker protest, I strongly oppose it and want to discredit it. The reason that I posted the photos of the flags was that I felt the people posting in favor of the event was successfully manipulating the perception here of the event to portray it as it is a populist protest for freedom with legitimate grievances. My point with the photos instead advance the perception that while it may have some legitimate grievances, it is actually a right-wing protest with extremist elements, and these extremist elements are the same ones that the vast majority of this forum strongly disapproves, even calling them traitors and for the FBI to crack down on them in the case of 3% and QAnon. I know I'm not going to sway the people posting in favor, they feel so strongly against COVID restrictions that they've made their peace with having far-right nutjobs in their ranks. But I don't think this is the case of the average forum reader, who while he may be fed up with COVID and dislike wearing masks and such, would be uncomfortable supporting a right-wing protest with extremists.

I might be right or wrong, but this shift is definitely happening in Canada, where the media conversation abruptly shifted from the truckers' grievances to the far-right groups, and Trudeau is now openly considering how to kick the truckers out by force. I wasn't posting on this subforum in summer 2020 but I imagine something similar happened here with CHAZ, where support was initially high but melted away as it became clear that anarchists were running the show and there was lawlessness on the ground.

[Hammy]

If only we still had the Fairness Doctrine, lockdowns and mask mandates almost certainly never would have happened.

Mask mandates were necessary before vaccines, and if you don't think so, then you're just not living in reality.

Then how did Sweden get by without it?

With an absurdly high mortality rate.

But the mortality rate in the U.S. is much worse.

Sweden's CFR was 10%. US was 7% before mandates went into effect, and 2-3% after.

Why would masks have an effect on CFR?  Mask should prevent infection, not death conditional on infection.  In the early stages of the pandemic, CFR was most likely primarily a function of testing capacity, and secondarily population demographics.

VIRAL LOAD. Even cloth masks can cut down on that by 30% and surgical by 50%. But when you have no vaccine, and everybody running around spreading the virus, you're giving everyone a full dose of it.

And the fact remains that after mandates were instituted in the US, mortality rates went down, no matter what argument you want to make about testing capacity. A change of 7% to 3% compared to one that remained around 10% is incontrovertible proof that Sweden had the wrong plan early in the pandemic.

[It’s so Joever]

If only we still had the Fairness Doctrine, lockdowns and mask mandates almost certainly never would have happened.

Mask mandates were necessary before vaccines, and if you don't think so, then you're just not living in reality.

Then how did Sweden get by without it?

With an absurdly high mortality rate.

But the mortality rate in the U.S. is much worse.

Sweden's CFR was 10%. US was 7% before mandates went into effect, and 2-3% after.

Why would masks have an effect on CFR?  Mask should prevent infection, not death conditional on infection.  In the early stages of the pandemic, CFR was most likely primarily a function of testing capacity, and secondarily population demographics.

VIRAL LOAD. Even cloth masks can cut down on that by 30% and surgical by 50%. But when you have no vaccine, and everybody running around spreading the virus, you're giving everyone a full dose of it.

And the fact remains that after mandates were instituted in the US, mortality rates went down, no matter what argument you want to make about testing capacity. A change of 7% to 3% compared to one that remained around 10% is incontrovertible proof that Sweden had the wrong plan early in the pandemic.

You’re literally the only sane person on here oh my gosh.

[T'Chenka]

cant believe we are still having these discussions.

These discussions will be happening for the next 40+ years, long after the pandemic, in the same way that people discuss the morality, pros, cons, good strategies and blunders of the Vietnam War to this day. Get used to it.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This thread (and Twitter replies) sometimes feels like a different planet.  Masks are uncommon enough here that I do a double-take on the rare occasion I see one.  The grocery store is the only place you see them, and it's even a minority there.  Apart from a vague understanding of things being different elsewhere, the Delta and- especially- Omicron waves have felt culturally a lot like the 2009 swine flu.  You know that people are getting sick, but probably don't know anyone who has been seriously ill*, and don't think too much about it.

*I'll be honest- I don't know a single person who has had anything worse than the seasonal flu from any variant of covid.

[emailking]

There's been 900,000 deaths. If you know 350 Americans there's a good chance you know someone who died. I do!

[Pericles]

There's been 900,000 deaths. If you know 350 Americans there's a good chance you know someone who died. I do!

Meanwhile I don't know anyone living in New Zealand who has got Covid. I have been worried about my family in Europe though.

[Calthrina950]

This thread (and Twitter replies) sometimes feels like a different planet.  Masks are uncommon enough here that I do a double-take on the rare occasion I see one.  The grocery store is the only place you see them, and it's even a minority there.  Apart from a vague understanding of things being different elsewhere, the Delta and- especially- Omicron waves have felt culturally a lot like the 2009 swine flu.  You know that people are getting sick, but probably don't know anyone who has been seriously ill*, and don't think too much about it.

*I'll be honest- I don't know a single person who has had anything worse than the seasonal flu from any variant of covid.

This is certainly not my experience, as I've lost one of my parents to this virus. And as I've said before, roughly half the people where I live continue to mask up in public.

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/kelleykga/status/1490074005541466113

https://twitter.com/KelleyKga/status/1490108637058150403#m

These photos are dystopian: The charismatic leader greeting the faceless masses!

I don't know how politicians who do this can live with themselves. Maybe it's just a lack of self-awareness, but even that says a great deal about them, i.e. that special treatment is such an entitlement to be unworthy of notice.

Let me emphasize that these were photo-ops. This isn't just an incidental capture of a day in the life. They reflect how her campaign wants her to be portrayed.

She deleted the tweet, so I'm guessing this is not how her campaign wants her portrayed. Bad look though, to say the least.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/kelleykga/status/1490074005541466113

https://twitter.com/KelleyKga/status/1490108637058150403#m

These photos are dystopian: The charismatic leader greeting the faceless masses!

I don't know how politicians who do this can live with themselves. Maybe it's just a lack of self-awareness, but even that says a great deal about them, i.e. that special treatment is such an entitlement to be unworthy of notice.

Let me emphasize that these were photo-ops. This isn't just an incidental capture of a day in the life. They reflect how her campaign wants her to be portrayed.

Absolutely disgusting.
Never donating to her organization.

[roxas11]

I honestly never understood why people were so freaked out over a mask in the first place

I get why people are upset over lockdowns and I even get why people dislike vaccine mandates, but the hate for mask never made any sense to me. At worse, it was sometimes annoying for me to wear, but that is nothing compared to people who lost their jobs and businesses because of the lockdowns in 2020

I honestly think the worst political mistake Trump made during the 2020 election was his decision to come out against wearing a mask at the beginning of the pandemic because had he not done that he could have easily opposed the lockdowns and offered mask as an alternative

That would have put the Dems in an awkward position and Trump could have gone to all of his rallies and gave these things away for free...



Had he done that there is a very good chance that Trump would have gotten reelected

[compucomp]

https://twitter.com/kelleykga/status/1490074005541466113
https://twitter.com/KelleyKga/status/1490108637058150403#m
These photos are dystopian: The charismatic leader greeting the faceless masses!

I don't know how politicians who do this can live with themselves. Maybe it's just a lack of self-awareness, but even that says a great deal about them, i.e. that special treatment is such an entitlement to be unworthy of notice.

Let me emphasize that these were photo-ops. This isn't just an incidental capture of a day in the life. They reflect how her campaign wants her to be portrayed.

I don't know how "practice what you preach" has not been drilled into every politician by now. It seems like many Democrats are not true believers in masking and social distancing and are just supporting it because their voters support it, but obvious hypocrisy like this is just the worst. I strongly disapprove of it. It's like the "family values" politicians who get caught banging their mistress or pressuring them to get abortions.

[emailking]

That picture is pathetic.

Read the room.

[ilikeverin]

This thread (and Twitter replies) sometimes feels like a different planet.  Masks are uncommon enough here that I do a double-take on the rare occasion I see one.  The grocery store is the only place you see them, and it's even a minority there.  Apart from a vague understanding of things being different elsewhere, the Delta and- especially- Omicron waves have felt culturally a lot like the 2009 swine flu.  You know that people are getting sick, but probably don't know anyone who has been seriously ill*, and don't think too much about it.

*I'll be honest- I don't know a single person who has had anything worse than the seasonal flu from any variant of covid.

I feel the same feeling in the exact opposite direction! Masks are almost universal here in indoor public settings that I do a double-take on the rare occasion I see people flouting the mandate. I had many friends who got sick during Omicron, none seriously, and it seems like almost everyone was at least exposed at some point; almost everyone I know changed their behavior in some way or another. I've known people who died due to COVID at the onset of the pandemic. People in this thread are hurled into a paroxysm of madness whenever they see a mask but I've never heard anyone in real life who's had a more negative opinion of a mask then "sometimes they make my glasses fog up". Nobody wants the mask mandates to last forever, but I've heard many people (especially older folks) say, "I think I'll just start wearing a mask in the wintertime so I don't get the flu", and I've definitely heard many folks say (and I myself agree!) that masks are kind of nice in the winter when you're outside because they help keep your face warm, like a scarf.

It just goes to show you what bubbles we all live in. To both of us, this thread seems like an unrelenting stream of opinions we can't understand; we also have cognitive biases to fixate on the opinions we disagree with and ignore the ones that we agree with.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

This thread (and Twitter replies) sometimes feels like a different planet.  Masks are uncommon enough here that I do a double-take on the rare occasion I see one.  The grocery store is the only place you see them, and it's even a minority there.  Apart from a vague understanding of things being different elsewhere, the Delta and- especially- Omicron waves have felt culturally a lot like the 2009 swine flu.  You know that people are getting sick, but probably don't know anyone who has been seriously ill*, and don't think too much about it.

*I'll be honest- I don't know a single person who has had anything worse than the seasonal flu from any variant of covid.

I feel the same feeling in the exact opposite direction! Masks are almost universal here in indoor public settings that I do a double-take on the rare occasion I see people flouting the mandate. I had many friends who got sick during Omicron, none seriously, and it seems like almost everyone was at least exposed at some point; almost everyone I know changed their behavior in some way or another. I've known people who died due to COVID at the onset of the pandemic. People in this thread are hurled into a paroxysm of madness whenever they see a mask but I've never heard anyone in real life who's had a more negative opinion of a mask then "sometimes they make my glasses fog up". Nobody wants the mask mandates to last forever, but I've heard many people (especially older folks) say, "I think I'll just start wearing a mask in the wintertime so I don't get the flu", and I've definitely heard many folks say (and I myself agree!) that masks are kind of nice in the winter when you're outside because they help keep your face warm, like a scarf.

It just goes to show you what bubbles we all live in. To both of us, this thread seems like an unrelenting stream of opinions we can't understand; we also have cognitive biases to fixate on the opinions we disagree with and ignore the ones that we agree with.

I am also living in a place where everyone wears a mask indoors. My read of the situation is that everyone tolerates them, people don’t often complain about them, and nobody loves them. This paranoia that we all want to wear masks forever is ludicrous. We don’t want to wear them forever—it’s just that, you know, we’re still in a pandemic. We need to be careful that we won’t be too scared to revert back when it’s time, but even though we might be close, it’s not time yet. We are just getting past our peak of record hospitalizations.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

That picture is pathetic.

Read the room.

It would be one thing if someone else had taken this picture as some sort of "gotcha".  
But this was posted on her own social media.
How is it not immediately obvious "what's wrong with this picture"??
I like Stacey Abrams a lot, but at the very least this really call into question the competence of the people working on her campaign.

[roxas11]

That picture is pathetic.

Read the room.

It would be one thing if someone else had taken this picture as some sort of "gotcha".  
But this was posted on her own social media.
How is it not immediately obvious "what's wrong with this picture"??
I like Stacey Abrams a lot, but at the very least this really call into question the competence of the people working on her campaign.

Well, in fairness, even when saw the picture on twitter it did not really stand out to me at the time. As far as I was concerned, it was just another one of those photo ops that politicians on both sides love to do

I had basically forgotten about it until I got on here is saw some people talking about that same picture and the fact that Abrams was not wearing a mask. Now at the time I did not think it was a big deal, but after seeing other people's opinions on this issue I can now see how this could be a big PR problem for the Dems in Georgia

now to be clear, I don't think this a fatal error that they can't come back from but I definitely agree that these are the kinds of rookie mistakes that the Abrams campaign should be trying to avoid going forward