AZ-SEN (OHPI): Kelly up

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly's at 44% or lower in all the polls. I'm not saying he can't win, but this is pretty worrying; once the GOP selects a nominee, the base will consolidate around that nominee. Tilt R.

Don't think you can say anything other than Toss-Up this early, but yes, the headline here is Kelly at 44%.

Rs are losing in every swing state poll

[MATTROSE94]

Kelly's at 44% or lower in all the polls. I'm not saying he can't win, but this is pretty worrying; once the GOP selects a nominee, the base will consolidate around that nominee. Tilt R.

I agree. Mark Brnovich is a fantastic candidate who fits Arizona’s political ideology very well. He will probably win by around 3% if I had to guess.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly's at 44% or lower in all the polls. I'm not saying he can't win, but this is pretty worrying; once the GOP selects a nominee, the base will consolidate around that nominee. Tilt R.

I agree. Mark Brnovich is a fantastic candidate who fits Arizona’s political ideology very well. He will probably win by around 3% if I had to guess.

When has he lead in a single poll

[MATTROSE94]

Kelly's at 44% or lower in all the polls. I'm not saying he can't win, but this is pretty worrying; once the GOP selects a nominee, the base will consolidate around that nominee. Tilt R.

I agree. Mark Brnovich is a fantastic candidate who fits Arizona’s political ideology very well. He will probably win by around 3% if I had to guess.

When has he lead in a single poll

Mark Kelly is only at 44%, which doesn’t bode well for him. Also, don’t forget that undecided voters heavily break Republican in all races.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DS lead GCB by 6 pts 43/37😭😭😭 what UD goes to Rs, wishful thinking

[MT Treasurer]

I agree. Mark Brnovich is a fantastic candidate who fits Arizona’s political ideology very well. He will probably win by around 3% if I had to guess.

A very prudent observation indeed. In a politically engaged, ideologically-driven state like AZ, ideology is what will make or break Republican electoral prospects, not the national environment, the Republican candidate's branding (as opposed to his voting record), turnout patterns, and the focus on/popularity of the incumbent President and Senator — in fact, if Mark Brnovich's ideology was closer to Martha McSally's or Kelli Ward's, he’d lose even in a Republican wave. AZ voters are sufficiently aware of Brnovich's ideological philosophy/voting record to realize that he represents the seven core tenets of traditional conservatism in a moderate fashion without exhibiting nasty tendencies to veer into authoritarianism or corporatocracy. Brnovichism replaces outworn neoliberalism, failed neoconservatism, and regressive Trumpian tendencies with an attenuated, forward-looking fusionism — precisely the right ideological amalgam for Maricopa County, which is why I pick him to win statewide by 4 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I agree. Mark Brnovich is a fantastic candidate who fits Arizona’s political ideology very well. He will probably win by around 3% if I had to guess.

A very prudent observation indeed. In a politically engaged, ideologically-driven state like AZ, ideology is what will make or break Republican electoral prospects, not the national environment, the Republican candidate's branding (as opposed to his voting record), turnout patterns, and the focus on/popularity of the incumbent President and Senator — in fact, if Mark Brnovich's ideology was closer to Martha McSally's or Kelli Ward's, he’d lose even in a Republican wave. AZ voters are sufficiently aware of Brnovich's ideological philosophy/voting record to realize that he represents the seven core tenets of traditional conservatism in a moderate fashion without exhibiting nasty tendencies to veer into authoritarianism or corporatocracy. Brnovichism replaces outworn neoliberalism, failed neoconservatism, and regressive Trumpian tendencies with an attenuated, forward-looking fusionism — precisely the right ideological amalgam for Maricopa County, which is why I pick him to win statewide by 4 points.

Kelly has the sympathy vote from Gabby Gifford's whom was almost murdered, similar to Jean Carnahan when her hubby died, but Talent was a Moderate and MO was too red to Reelect Jean, but AZ has trended blue, since McCain death and Cindy McCain supports Kelly and told Ducey to certify Kelly😃😃😃😃


Cindy McCain been on the View talking about Gabby Gifford's, what has Brnovich done, he isn't Ducey that appeal to Ds

If Hassan is only down by 3 to Chris Sununu, she's staying C Sununu needs a 9 pt lead to overcome NH angry Women like he did against Molly Kelly when he won by 7

The map is gonna be 51 D 48Rs and 1 Runoff for GA
The RS are blocking VR, Collins whom is a fake Moderate is DOA to Golden in 2026


Blue wave 51D/1 Runoff/45Rs with OH, NC and FL are in play