Virginia Governor's Race 2013 -Who's Gonna Win?

[PolitiJunkie]

So at this point is it fair to say that the Democratic candidates have the upper hand in all three races?

[PolitiJunkie]

Yes, Larry Sabato has also moved this from Toss-Up to Lean D.

Looks like Virginia politics will break history's record and a elect a governor from the same party as the president. This is important as the new face of Virginia could potentially represent a state that now has a decent democratic advantage in modern election politics. This is a shift that must be watched in the next few years.

Yeah it's pretty crazy, Virginia has not elected a Governor from the same party as the President since 1974 when Republican Miles Goodwin was elected Governor despite Gerald Ford being a Republican President. Just goes to show that political trends are broken so easily and are silly to rely on.

[PolitiJunkie]

Beet, I think it's possible we could see a Democratic sweep of Governor, LG and State AG in November.

Possible? That's looking like it's almost a guarantee.

[PolitiJunkie]

If the Democrats are able to power a candidate as weak as McAuliffe to victory and sweep other statewide offices in an off-year, the Republicans are probably done in Virginia.

Maybe Virginia Democrats can give much needed help to their counterparts in North Carolina.

Not really.  If Democrats win this year it'll be because the GOP opponent was out of touch with Virginia; if Bolling had been the nominee, he'd be up 10 points at the moment.

Ten points?  I don't live in Virginia, but isn't your state slowly becoming out of reach for McDonnell/Bolling/Cuccinelli-type GOPers?

I don't live in Virginia either but I was under the impression that Bolling, while conservative, wasn't really a McDonnell/Cuccinelli-type GOPer.

Definitely. I bet Bolling will be elected Governor in 2017.

[PolitiJunkie]

Cuccinelli will win this race in the end.

I just do NOT see the traditional trend since 1977 ending anytime soon.

See, you are just wrong. Trends like that are dumb because they are just broken so easily. No one voting in this election cares about the trend. In 2012, everyone made a big deal that the winner of the South Carolina primary has always won the nomination. How'd that work out for Newt Gingrich? In 2008, everyone made a big deal out of the fact that no Republican who placed below third in Iowa ever won the nomination. McCain was fourth. These traditions just go away very easily. Have you seen this?

[PolitiJunkie]

Wait, the LG race was close? I've never seen any polling on it.

Northam is only up 3.

Good lord, they buried that deeply. I was just thinking the other day how we've never seen any polls of lower level races. Giving it a bit more attention in the story or graphic or even posting the question a bit higher in the poll might help.

I guess it's the African-American evangelical vote coming out. I think I mentioned this but when I was canvassing for Obama I met one black woman who said she wouldn't vote for him because of his stance on gay marriage. The ironic thing is that most of these people are pro-choice.

Not quite, it's because Northam has barely campaigned, assuming he could coast to victory on the idiocy of Jackson alone.

[PolitiJunkie]

There are rumors that Bolling will endorse and do a commercial for McAuliffe.

Wouldn't that just be the icing on the cake?

Anyway, Bolling 2017!

[PolitiJunkie]

There are rumors that Bolling will endorse and do a commercial for McAuliffe.

It's been obvious for a while Bolling was going to endorse McAuliffe. He's just timing it for when it would have maximum impact, near the end.

Though I really don't know what his end game is. He'd never win a Republican primary (much less a convention) after this, but he's far too conservative to become a Democrat. Independent run in 2017?

I don't think you understand the Virginia Democratic Party.

Bolling is essentially a Cuccinelli style Republican but without the rancid personality and in-your-face-ness. Sure you could point to Crist, but at least he could point to several bipartisan and centrist policies he had while governor. There's no way Bolling could win a Democratic primary.

Sure he could. It's not about actual policies. It's about the centrist appearance. Democrats in the media love that. How else is Tim "47%" Kaine a Senator from Virginia? How about Chuck Robb?

Virginia has changed a lot. If you need proof, read Tim Kaine's platform in 2005 vs. his 2012 platform.

Yeah I don't think Bolling would or could run as a Democrat. When I said "Bill Bolling 2017!" I meant that I'd probably support him as a Republican (or also potentially an independent if this McAuliffe endorsement really happens) because McAuliffe is presumably going to do a very poor job causing Republicans to be heavily favored in 2017 (as well as a bad Democratic bench).

[PolitiJunkie]

August 11, 2006 was the day Virginia politics changed.  Forever.

It's so bizarre and shouldn't be the case, but so true.

[PolitiJunkie]

August 11, 2006 was the day Virginia politics changed.  Forever.

What happened on August 11, 2006?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r90z0PMnKwI

[PolitiJunkie]

The thought of Terry McAuliffe winning any elected public office (let alone Governor of a swing state) is astonishing and all of you would agree if you set aside your feelings on Cuccinelli.

Anyway, Terry will be an unquestionably disastrous Governor, most likely scandal plagued and extremely unpopular. VA Dems will be tagged as "McAuliffe Democrats" over the next few years and the GOP will benefit.

Cuccinelli is simply falling on his sword to ensure greater days to come. You all talk about the day that marked the end of this campaign. That's fine. I look at it this way though: Inauguration Day is when the VA GOP will be reborn.

I agree.