MI Governor 2018

[Bojack Horseman]

I think Whitmer emerges from the primary and selects El-Sayed as her running mate to appease the Bernie crowd that has already lined up behind Abdul. I think she wins thanks to the Trump midterm with 52-54%.

I said the day after the 2014 election that we'd have a Democratic governor in 2018 no matter who was president. That seems to be coming true.

[Bojack Horseman]

Surprised this hasn't been posted yet:

Politics1.com
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@Politics1com
 3h3 hours ago
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MICHIGAN: It looks like ex-Detroit Health Dir Abdul El-Sayed (D) will be disqualified from Governor race due to eligibility grounds. State constitution requires he be a Michigan voter for the past 4 years, but he was registered to vote in NY as of 2015.

Hallelujah! That pretty much clears the field for Whitmer. Unfortunately the Bernie wing just might go into Jill Stein mode, claiming that the establishment did this to him and it’s just as racist as birtherism.

[Bojack Horseman]

A real shame, El-Sayed seemed like an amazing guy and candidate. Hope he can bounce back from this in a future cycle.

From what I’m reading, it would take a formal challenge from a Democratic candidate to get him off the primary ballot at this point. If he wins, then the Republicans would quickly jump to have him removed from the ballot.

[Bojack Horseman]

‘Racist Attack’ Stirs Democratic Feud In Michigan Governor’s Race

*The Price Is Right losing horns*

[Bojack Horseman]

I’m on board with Whitmer. I think she’ll be a repeat of Ralph Northam where everybody panicked and he ended up winning by a bigger margin than the polls showed.

[Bojack Horseman]

I’m on board with Whitmer. I think she’ll be a repeat of Ralph Northam where everybody panicked and he ended up winning by a bigger margin than the polls showed.

I don't really have much of an issue with Whitmer, tbh. She's more centrist than I'd like, plus it'd be great to finally have some Muslim representation in higher government, which is why I support El-Sayed.

But iirc, Whitmer was the left's favorite in the shadow primary when Levin retired, so she's not exactly Northam V2.

Duggan's endorsement isn't changing my mind, but I'm much more comfortable with Whitmer now. At least it's not perennial joke candidate Fieger.

If El Sayed gets the nomination, Scheutte will win by the same margin Snyder did in 2010. This state just voted for Trump, and if we nominate a Muslim, every one of those rural deplorables who turned out for Trump will turn out to oppose a Muslim governor. I can see the ads already...

Bill Scheutte is the only thing stopping an ISIS takeover of Michigan!

[Bojack Horseman]

Does El-Sayed even have any traction outside Dearborn?

I'd say it's mostly word-of-mouth among the Bernie people. Shri Thanedar is the only candidate from either party who's running ads right now, and he'd do just as poorly as El-Sayed would. He's campaigning on shutting down every charter school in Michigan. The guy is a total whackjob. I'm not sure why even the Republicans haven't started advertising, as they've got the same clown car primary (Scheutte, Calley, Colbeck, etc.) as the Democrats do.

[Bojack Horseman]

Is El-Sayed even going to be on the ballot bc of the registration issue? He's young, maybe he should try for a smaller seat then try again when they work out the registration issues

Nobody's going to challenge him. That would cause an intra-party civil war, because he's already likened the valid challenge to the birther movement. If he won the nomination, Republicans would pounce and have him stricken from the ballot and god knows what would happen after that.

The MDP needs to do something to muzzle Thanedar. He said in an interview in the beginning that he's only running as a perennial candidate to be a pain in the ass to the hated establishment.

[Bojack Horseman]

Wasn't sure where else to put this and I wasn't sure a state AG race merited a new topic, but Dana Nessel has beaten Pat Miles for the AG nomination at the Michigan Dem convention. Seems like a bit of an upset, since Miles was backed by the UAW and the party establishment.

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2018/04/michigan_democratic_party_endo.html

Congrats, MI Dems.  Y’all just threw away a winnable race.

Dana had the best platform and real experience. Pat Miles was a slimy politician who turned to Republican tactics when he couldn’t win on issues.

[Bojack Horseman]

Wasn't sure where else to put this and I wasn't sure a state AG race merited a new topic, but Dana Nessel has beaten Pat Miles for the AG nomination at the Michigan Dem convention. Seems like a bit of an upset, since Miles was backed by the UAW and the party establishment.

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2018/04/michigan_democratic_party_endo.html

Congrats, MI Dems.  Y’all just threw away a winnable race.

Dana had the best platform and real experience. Pat Miles was a slimy politician who turned to Republican tactics when he couldn’t win on issues.

Being a former US Attorney isn’t real experience?

Pat Miles simply couldn't be trusted. He said he was pro-union, but he once-upon-a-time supported right to work. We're about to vote on legalizing marijuana, and Miles prosecuted medical marijuana patients in federal court. He just couldn't be trusted.

[Bojack Horseman]

Thanedar spotted at a Rubio 2016 campaign event and posed with Rubio: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2018/05/24/thanedar-rubio-rally-no-crime/642027002/

Also, Kzihr Khan (of DNC fame) endorsed El-Sayed, in what is perhaps this cycle's least consequential endorsement.

I honestly have no idea why Thanedar is running, tbh.

Because he wants attention and a platform to schmooze rich people.

[Bojack Horseman]

Whitmer is finally on TV, thanks to a $1.8 million ad buy from Build A Better Michigan PAC. The primary is August 7.

[Bojack Horseman]

I'm optimistic that once Whitmer has some ads rolling she'll overtake Thanedar in the polling. I should hope so, Thanedar is absolutely awful. Who the hell makes up that guy's base of support?

Progressives/left leanings who don’t know anything about him. He’s spent upwards of $7 million and he only has a 3 point lead with 35% undecided. Despite pretty much every Our Revolution member lining up behind El-Sayed early, he’s down to about 7% in the polls.

Here’s Whitmer’s ad: https://youtube.com/watch?v=9kicNDIgqvg

[Bojack Horseman]

I'm optimistic that once Whitmer has some ads rolling she'll overtake Thanedar in the polling. I should hope so, Thanedar is absolutely awful. Who the hell makes up that guy's base of support?

Progressives/left leanings who don’t know anything about him. He’s spent upwards of $7 million and he only has a 3 point lead with 35% undecided. Despite pretty much every Our Revolution member lining up behind El-Sayed early, he’s down to about 7% in the polls.

Here’s Whitmer’s ad: https://youtube.com/watch?v=9kicNDIgqvg

I can't believe the demonym for someone from Michigan is "Michigander." Has HillGoose ever visited there?

The vast majority of us prefer Michigander over Michiganian. It just sounds right.

[Bojack Horseman]

Full Democratic debate from 6/20 hosted by WOOD-TV 8.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zsaklDcWO9I

[Bojack Horseman]

One of the funniest stories of the governor's race so far is Bill Cobbs. He's a former Xerox executive who happens to be the most arrogant, egotistical, and delusional politician I've ever seen (other than the orange Twitler that is).

Cobbs was among the first to file for governor, but having no political experience and no millions to carpetbomb the airwaves with, he never got higher than 3% in the polls. But if you dared mention the P-word, he flew into a Facebook rage. In fact, he never did any campaigning that didn't involve posting on Facebook.

In the end, he couldn't even get 15,000 petition signatures to make the primary ballot, and so he is now running as a write-in candidate. He's raised $26 on ActBlue and was not invited to any of the debates or candidate roundtables. Yet he's still convinced that he's going to shock the world on August 7 and win the Democratic nomination for governor via write-in. In fact, he's so egotistical that he posts pictures like this on Facebook, pretending to be Jesus:

[Bojack Horseman]

Thanedar would be a TERRIBLE candidate in the general... Whitmer and Gwen Graham in Florida are a lot alike... Both establishment women with the right experience who could both easily win in November, losing their primary's because the other guy has a lot of money.

Whitmer is ahead by 21 in the latest primary poll (and first one released in two months), thankfully.

Can you post the link please? I haven't seen this poll (and I was just searching for polls on it)

[Bojack Horseman]

Thanedar’s latest ad is one of the worst I’ve ever seen:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=IEw1q1Tgy2s

[Bojack Horseman]

Thanedar’s latest ad is one of the worst I’ve ever seen:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=IEw1q1Tgy2s

Weird angle to go at. Machine politics arent really prevalent in MI, but I guess this is him trying to go for that "Im Bernie Sanders, Whitmer is Hillary Clinton, forget about that other guy" angle. This could work, with a different person, in a different state. Hell, OC could have used this ad, and it would have worked.

I spoke too soon. This is the worst ad I have ever seen come across my TV: https://youtube.com/watch?v=T657Jm96yQA

[Bojack Horseman]

There's no real point in backing Abdul, since he is not eligible to be Governor under the Michigan Constitution and will be removed from the ballot in the very unlikely event he wins the primary. Meaning the Michigan Democratic Party will just be able to reselect Whitmer as the nominee. Although I guess there's a valid reason if you want to embarrass the party.

Unfortunately Thanedar already challenged El-Sayed’s eligibility and they found him eligible to run.

[Bojack Horseman]

Bill Schuette being investigated by the FBI for using AG office to further personal real estate deals:

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2018/07/03/ingham-prosecutor-refers-request-investigation-bill-schuette-fbi/754706002/

[Bojack Horseman]

Republicans are running only the best candidates this year

Does anyone else in the primary have any chance of beating him?

Incumbent LG Brian Calley is a distant second even though the PACs are bombarding the airwaves supporting him and have been for some time. Schuette’s ads started today. Schuette has the same advantage Whitmer does on the D side: the far right (or far left in Whitmer’s case) is fairly evenly divided between two other candidates. Both parties’ primaries will probably have the same percentage results as the Illinois D governor primary did.

[Bojack Horseman]

Last night WDIV in Detroit the second Democratic debate. Sparks flew as it turned into a heated, pugnacious affair. Shri Thanedar looked completely lost, while El-Sayed and Whitmer duked it out. I still think Whitmer won the debate overall, but it was a heavyweight bout.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Aa7fLTyxgm0

[Bojack Horseman]

I don't think Abdul El-Sayed will win the primary, but his social media support is Bernie-esque. Relentless attacks on Whitmer for being a corporate shill, liar, neoliberal centrist, controlled by PACs and corporations, unlikable. If Thanedar weren't in the race I would say that this is the closest analogy to Bernie v. Hillary we have this cycle. And we all know what happened in the Michigan primary that year...

That’s true, but I still think the 2016 primary was a special case. We had a similar primary for governor in 2002: the left was divided between Congressman David Bonior and former Governor Jim Blanchard. That split left vote allowed the hated establishment shill Jennifer Granholm to win the plurality.

[Bojack Horseman]

I don't think Abdul El-Sayed will win the primary, but his social media support is Bernie-esque. Relentless attacks on Whitmer for being a corporate shill, liar, neoliberal centrist, controlled by PACs and corporations, unlikable. If Thanedar weren't in the race I would say that this is the closest analogy to Bernie v. Hillary we have this cycle. And we all know what happened in the Michigan primary that year...

That’s true, but I still think the 2016 primary was a special case. We had a similar primary for governor in 2002: the left was divided between Congressman David Bonior and former Governor Jim Blanchard. That split left vote allowed the hated establishment shill Jennifer Granholm to win the plurality.

Was Blanchard really that much more liberal than Granholm?

I think part of it had to do with the fact that he was cheated out of a third term in 1990 by a spiteful Coleman Young who refused to turn out the Detroit Democratic machine combined with name recognition and brand loyalty. Unions supported Bonior despite being pro-life because of his history in Congress.