Who will win the Georgia gubernatorial election?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kemp. It'll take a few more years of demographic changes for a Democrat to be able to win Georgia. 2022 maybe, but not yet.

In 2018, Georgia is less white than Virginia was in 2005 and 2006 when it elected Kaine and Webb.  Demographically, I think Georgia is ready.

Virginia had far more white Democrats, due to NOVA.

[Zaybay]

It really depends on how well Abrams does.

The state is ready to vote for Democrats, unlike what most posters are saying. There is a sizable AA population that actually punches above its weight, and the whites in Atlanta and its surroundings are turning more Blue. What Abrams needs to do is get her voters out there, and convert non-voters into voters, not Republicans into Democrats.

If we are to look at 2014, a hard R year, with an incumbent who was rather popular, against a candidate no one was excited about, he got 52% to 45%. In 2016, in a state that Hillary didnt invest in, and when Democrats were not enthused at all, the result was 51% to 46%. Now we are going into an election with a terrible R candidate, an excellent D one, money, a Blue Wave, and numerous other factors on our side. This race will be close, and Abrams chances are huge.

I would say that this race is a pure tossup. Both have a 50/50 shot at the governors mansion. But, if I had a gun to my head, Abrams wins.

[Rookie Yinzer]

^^^ Exactly!!!

Me and a group of other organizers are planning a campaign post-Labor Day to draw out black D-leaning millennials age 21-40 (GA has the highest pop. of black millennials in the country). The main issues we will be focusing on are transit expansion, affordable housing, and criminal justice reform. We are targeting six counties (Cobb, Gwinnett, Douglas, Henry, Newton, Rockdale) that lay outside the 285 corridor. Stacey is probably going to win all of them but we want to pad her numbers there as much as possible to counter any potential deficits in North Georgia and any potential underperformance in the Black Belt.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It really depends on how well Abrams does.

The state is ready to vote for Democrats, unlike what most posters are saying. There is a sizable AA population that actually punches above its weight, and the whites in Atlanta and its surroundings are turning more Blue. What Abrams needs to do is get her voters out there, and convert non-voters into voters, not Republicans into Democrats.

If we are to look at 2014, a hard R year, with an incumbent who was rather popular, against a candidate no one was excited about, he got 52% to 45%. In 2016, in a state that Hillary didnt invest in, and when Democrats were not enthused at all, the result was 51% to 46%. Now we are going into an election with a terrible R candidate, an excellent D one, money, a Blue Wave, and numerous other factors on our side. This race will be close, and Abrams chances are huge.

I would say that this race is a pure tossup. Both have a 50/50 shot at the governors mansion. But, if I had a gun to my head, Abrams wins.

Very good post.

[Alabama_Indy10]

^^^ Exactly!!!

Me and a group of other organizers are planning a campaign post-Labor Day to draw out black D-leaning millennials age 21-40 (GA has the highest pop. of black millennials in the country). The main issues we will be focusing on are transit expansion, affordable housing, and criminal justice reform. We are targeting six counties (Cobb, Gwinnett, Douglas, Henry, Newton, Rockdale) that lay outside the 285 corridor. Stacey is probably going to win all of them but we want to pad her numbers there as much as possible to counter any potential deficits in North Georgia and any potential underperformance in the Black Belt.

I've been meaning to ask you about the campaign Abrams is running. The parts of Georgia where I frequent (NW GA like Floyd, Chattooga, Polk counties, etc.) I have seen absolutely no presence whatsoever of the Abrams campaign. No campaign signs or anything like that, while Kemp is extremely well represented in these areas.

[KingSweden]

^^^ Exactly!!!

Me and a group of other organizers are planning a campaign post-Labor Day to draw out black D-leaning millennials age 21-40 (GA has the highest pop. of black millennials in the country). The main issues we will be focusing on are transit expansion, affordable housing, and criminal justice reform. We are targeting six counties (Cobb, Gwinnett, Douglas, Henry, Newton, Rockdale) that lay outside the 285 corridor. Stacey is probably going to win all of them but we want to pad her numbers there as much as possible to counter any potential deficits in North Georgia and any potential underperformance in the Black Belt.

I've been meaning to ask you about the campaign Abrams is running. The parts of Georgia where I frequent (NW GA like Floyd, Chattooga, Polk counties, etc.) I have seen absolutely no presence whatsoever of the Abrams campaign. No campaign signs or anything like that, while Kemp is extremely well represented in these areas.

I mean that’s Tom Graves country isn’t it? Not surprising she isn’t putting a ton of effort into easily the most hostile territory in the state

[GeorgiaModerate]

^^^ Exactly!!!

Me and a group of other organizers are planning a campaign post-Labor Day to draw out black D-leaning millennials age 21-40 (GA has the highest pop. of black millennials in the country). The main issues we will be focusing on are transit expansion, affordable housing, and criminal justice reform. We are targeting six counties (Cobb, Gwinnett, Douglas, Henry, Newton, Rockdale) that lay outside the 285 corridor. Stacey is probably going to win all of them but we want to pad her numbers there as much as possible to counter any potential deficits in North Georgia and any potential underperformance in the Black Belt.

I've been meaning to ask you about the campaign Abrams is running. The parts of Georgia where I frequent (NW GA like Floyd, Chattooga, Polk counties, etc.) I have seen absolutely no presence whatsoever of the Abrams campaign. No campaign signs or anything like that, while Kemp is extremely well represented in these areas.

I mean that’s Tom Graves country isn’t it? Not surprising she isn’t putting a ton of effort into easily the most hostile territory in the state

That's true, but I think it's a good question.  I'm sure there's plenty of Abrams presence in Atlanta, but I'm an OTP critter and have seen exactly one Abrams sign (in Athens).  I'd have expected at least something in places like Alpharetta, Roswell, etc., since Abrams probably needs to make at least some inroads into the well-educated ATL suburbs.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

^^^ Exactly!!!

Me and a group of other organizers are planning a campaign post-Labor Day to draw out black D-leaning millennials age 21-40 (GA has the highest pop. of black millennials in the country). The main issues we will be focusing on are transit expansion, affordable housing, and criminal justice reform. We are targeting six counties (Cobb, Gwinnett, Douglas, Henry, Newton, Rockdale) that lay outside the 285 corridor. Stacey is probably going to win all of them but we want to pad her numbers there as much as possible to counter any potential deficits in North Georgia and any potential underperformance in the Black Belt.

I've been meaning to ask you about the campaign Abrams is running. The parts of Georgia where I frequent (NW GA like Floyd, Chattooga, Polk counties, etc.) I have seen absolutely no presence whatsoever of the Abrams campaign. No campaign signs or anything like that, while Kemp is extremely well represented in these areas.

I mean that’s Tom Graves country isn’t it? Not surprising she isn’t putting a ton of effort into easily the most hostile territory in the state

That's true, but I think it's a good question.  I'm sure there's plenty of Abrams presence in Atlanta, but I'm an OTP critter and have seen exactly one Abrams sign (in Athens).  I'd have expected at least something in places like Alpharetta, Roswell, etc., since Abrams probably needs to make at least some inroads into the well-educated ATL suburbs.

You live in Athens too?

[GeorgiaModerate]

^^^ Exactly!!!

Me and a group of other organizers are planning a campaign post-Labor Day to draw out black D-leaning millennials age 21-40 (GA has the highest pop. of black millennials in the country). The main issues we will be focusing on are transit expansion, affordable housing, and criminal justice reform. We are targeting six counties (Cobb, Gwinnett, Douglas, Henry, Newton, Rockdale) that lay outside the 285 corridor. Stacey is probably going to win all of them but we want to pad her numbers there as much as possible to counter any potential deficits in North Georgia and any potential underperformance in the Black Belt.

I've been meaning to ask you about the campaign Abrams is running. The parts of Georgia where I frequent (NW GA like Floyd, Chattooga, Polk counties, etc.) I have seen absolutely no presence whatsoever of the Abrams campaign. No campaign signs or anything like that, while Kemp is extremely well represented in these areas.

I mean that’s Tom Graves country isn’t it? Not surprising she isn’t putting a ton of effort into easily the most hostile territory in the state

That's true, but I think it's a good question.  I'm sure there's plenty of Abrams presence in Atlanta, but I'm an OTP critter and have seen exactly one Abrams sign (in Athens).  I'd have expected at least something in places like Alpharetta, Roswell, etc., since Abrams probably needs to make at least some inroads into the well-educated ATL suburbs.

You live in Athens too?

Nope, got a kid at UGA.  I live in Forsyth County.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Every hyper partisan D and independent leaning D has been contacted either by phone call or text.

Next week 100 Field organizers are going to be dispatched throughout the state with another wave of 100 in September. Every county will have a field operation by next month.

ETA: I know I’ve gotten swamped with requests of signs from all over to the point where we have to ask folks to come in and volunteer if they would like one.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Every hyper partisan D and independent leaning D has been contacted either by phone call or text.

Next week 100 Field organizers are going to be dispatched throughout the state with another wave of 100 in September. Every county will have a field operation by next month.

ETA: I know I’ve gotten swamped with requests of signs from all over to the point where we have to ask folks to come in and volunteer if they would like one.

"Independent leaning D" describes me to a tee, and I haven't been contacted.  Maybe Forsyth County is considered a lost cause?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Every hyper partisan D and independent leaning D has been contacted either by phone call or text.

Next week 100 Field organizers are going to be dispatched throughout the state with another wave of 100 in September. Every county will have a field operation by next month.

ETA: I know I’ve gotten swamped with requests of signs from all over to the point where we have to ask folks to come in and volunteer if they would like one.

"Independent leaning D" describes me to a tee, and I haven't been contacted.  Maybe Forsyth County is considered a lost cause?

Definitely not! Maybe they have an outdated phone number in their database? Hopefully you get canvassed via door knocking in the near future!