Who will win the Georgia gubernatorial election?

[TDAS04]

Will this Deep South state elect the nation’s first black female governor?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Stacey Abrams.

In 2014 Nathan Deal had above water approvals, incumbency, an unpopular president of the opposite party, and a GOP wave year and he only got 53% against a challenger who didn't really excite the base.

2018, we have a Democratic friendly year, unpopular GOP president, a candidate that excites the Democratic base like never before, and a chance at making history.

Kemp is basically running an Abrams smear campaign heading into the general. I don't any issues he is passionate about or why he even wants the job of Governor. Abrams is talking about bread and butter issues, and moderating her message (not to the point that she alienates her base or walks back anything). If Hillary can make inroads in Cobb and Gwinnett with no investment, I don't see why Abrams can't replicate her performance there, while boosting turnout in the Democratic bastions of the state, and simultaneously bringing out low propensity AAs in South Georgia, and trying her damndest to cut into the margins in the North GA mountains.

Stacey is not converting Republicans to Democrats, she is converting non-voters to voters.

[libertpaulian]

Abrams has the momentum.  I don't think I've seen a candidate inspire this much energy in an electorate since Barack Obama. 

If she wins this thing, she's guaranteed a VP slot in 2024 (assuming Drumpf wins in 2020) or a chance to bid for a Presidential slot in 2028 (assuming a Democrat wins in 2020). 

Oh, yeah, and to those planning DNC 2020?  If you're reading this, I think you know who to pick for your Keynote Speaker spot...

[Suburbia]

I see a slight Abrams win.

Stacey Abrams 50%
Brian Kemp 49%.

She will win by 1 point. You are underestimating white turnout against a black woman. She'll win, but barely.

I have the right to reserve my pick, but Abrams will slightly win. But don't be surprised if Kemp wins as well.

[NewYorkExpress]

Abrams has the momentum.  I don't think I've seen a candidate inspire this much energy in an electorate since Barack Obama. 

If she wins this thing, she's guaranteed a VP slot in 2024 (assuming Drumpf wins in 2020) or a chance to bid for a Presidential slot in 2028 (assuming a Democrat wins in 2020). 

Oh, yeah, and to those planning DNC 2020?  If you're reading this, I think you know who to pick for your Keynote Speaker spot...

If Abrams wins, and Trump also wins in 2020, Abrams might run in her own right in 2024, announcing her campaign sometime in 2023.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Welp, Atlas has spoken, and so it shall be. /Shrug

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kemp. It'll take a few more years of demographic changes for a Democrat to be able to win Georgia. 2022 maybe, but not yet.

[MT Treasurer]

Kemp by 2-3.

[IceSpear]

Kemp by 2-3.

[Calthrina950]

Kemp by 2-3.

[Mr. Smith]

Kemp, but likely only after a runoff.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

I think Stacey will be Governor one day.  She might lose in 2018, but it's common for statewide candidates to try again and then get elected.  She's not going anywhere and the Georgia of the 20s is going to be better for her.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its a type of year, where things arent gonna go it normally does. If Shawn Moody can win ME, Abrams can win in GA😀

[Beet]

Well since I was wrong about Abdul El-Sayed winning, I caution to say anything 100%, but Stacey Abrams will win about 52-47. The comparisons to Barack Obama are right- people are ready for a Black woman. She already has a TIME cover, a polling lead, and energized social media. She's a rock star in the Democratic party.

[wesmoorenerd]

Kemp, but likely only after a runoff.

This is the most likely scenario, but I'd put the odds of an Abrams win at a respectable 40%.

[Mail-order President]

Kemp, 51-47

[Hammy]

Kemp, but likely only after a runoff.

Only answer. I can see her winning 48-47 or something around there (whoever wins the first round it's probably going to be a point or two) but the Dems still don't likely have enough voters yet to win 50%.

[Podgy the Bear]

If the election were held today, it would probably be Kemp by 1-2 (without a runoff).  I did think that the Republican runoff would have created post-election wounds.  But Kemp seems to have unified the Republicans--or at least scared them enough to stop the horrid thought of a black woman running the state.

Georgia is not there yet.  But Abrams is clearly in the game and is focusing on the bread and butter issues that has appeal throughout.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Stacy has the momentum, and can clear the 50% hurdle to avoid the run-off.

[windjammer]

Kemp by 2-3.

This.

I expect a run off where Kemp would win 51-49

[Politician]

Kemp, but likely only after a runoff.

[libertpaulian]

Kemp. It'll take a few more years of demographic changes for a Democrat to be able to win Georgia. 2022 maybe, but not yet.

In 2018, Georgia is less white than Virginia was in 2005 and 2006 when it elected Kaine and Webb.  Demographically, I think Georgia is ready.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Females, as far as Graham and Whitmer and Abrams are not tobe underestimated by GOP, in otherwise WWC areas like FL, parts of MI and FL. 😍

[Rookie Yinzer]

Kemp. It'll take a few more years of demographic changes for a Democrat to be able to win Georgia. 2022 maybe, but not yet.

The demographic changes have already happened. We just need to get them out to vote.

[😥]

Abrams by 0,5-1,5%