🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021

[CumbrianLefty]

Dominik Nepp, FPÖ-Vienna leader, has already cast his absentee ballot in person:



Nepp, who leads the FPÖ (previously very critical of the postal/absentee voting process), says that he encourages people to vote early in-person by absentee ballot because it will limit the voter flow on election day in the precincts and it won't be too crowded then.

https://www.vienna.at/wien-wahl-fpoe-spitzenkandidat-nepp-stimmte-bereits-per-wahlkarte-ab/6743139

https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/fpoe-wien-chef-nepp-geht-frueh-waehlen-und-hofft-auf-20-prozent/401034869

Thought that FPOers didn't like mask wearing?

[CumbrianLefty]

There are also a few runoffs in the bigger cities, but it is unlikely that the ÖVP mayors will get defeated there.

WOW.

I was wrong.

There were 6 mayoral runoffs in Vorarlberg today, incl. the capital Bregenz - which is famous for the James Bond movie.

We have results from 4 of them and in 3 the ÖVP incumbent mayors got defeated today.

The capital Bregenz will get an SPÖ mayor for the first time since 1990.

In another city, the ÖVP-mayor got defeated by the Green challenger.

And in another, the ÖVP-mayor got defeated by an Independent challenger.

Only in 1 of the 4, the ÖVP-mayor defeated the FPÖ candidate.

The results of the remaining 2 cities are in:

In Hard, the SPÖ-challenger defeated the ÖVP-mayor with 67.1% !

In Bludenz, the ÖVP-mayor survived with 51.7% vs. the SPÖ candidate.

Bottom line:

ÖVP-mayors got defeated in 4/6 runoffs today in this conservative state.

Could this have any national implications?

No, not really.

Those are just a few smaller cities in the range of 15.000-30.000 inhabitants.

But it's still funny, because the newspapers are spinning it as some kind of defeat for Chancellor Kurz.

The Vienna state election in 2 weeks is what's going to have national implications.

I know local elections aren't the same as national ones, but it might still be a sign his honeymoon is wearing off just a bit?

[CumbrianLefty]

Whisper it, but "traditional" social democracy does seem to be tentatively emerging from its recent electoral trough in a few places now.

[CumbrianLefty]

The ORF debate for Vienna between Nepp (FPÖ) and Strache yesterday was lively:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000120450631/offene-paartherapie-im-tv-duell-zwischen-nepp-und-strache

Nepp said Strache is all about „me, me, me, victim, victim, victim !“ while in turn Strache called Nepp „a backstabber, my son Brutus (=traitor)“.

Then Nepp said „Strache needs a certain decency, reflection for his actions because he disappointed Austrians and most FPÖ members and former colleagues, many of whom are now unemployed or under investigation“.

Then Strache said to Nepp: „You have been a good student of mine, but now it’s shabby that your only program is being ice-cold against me !“

Nepp: „My program is FOR Vienna ! We are the original!“

The 2 ORF moderators called the debate a „live couple therapy“ and naively asked both if there’s a chance for re-unification ...

Great stuff, long may it continue

[CumbrianLefty]

Consistently strong showings for the SPO there.

[CumbrianLefty]

A British woman living in Vienna for more than 30 years went to a polling station to vote in the district council election, as usual.

She was told she cannot vote any more, because Brexit.

https://twitter.com/MichiHeiling/status/1315283748317999107

Well that sucks a bit.

[CumbrianLefty]

Both the FPÖ and Strache party headquarter crowds look like a truck plowed over them ...

Oh dear, what a shame, never mind

[CumbrianLefty]

Well that is even worse for the FPO than predicted, if confirmed.

[CumbrianLefty]

According to the voter streams, 40% of 2015 FPÖ-voters (31%) went into the non-voter category yesterday.

That's worth 12% of turnout-drop ...

To state the obvious, that's an awful lot of votes.

[CumbrianLefty]

So the SPO slightly improved on their last Vienna result but drop a seat - how does that work?

[CumbrianLefty]

So the SPO slightly improved on their last Vienna result but drop a seat - how does that work?

I think you are mixing up the Bundesrat drop with the Vienna city council gain ...

That's a drop of 1 seat in the Austrian Bundesrat, the chamber representing the 9 states. I think the SPÖ lost one seat, because Vienna has 11 of the 61 seats in that chamber and with NEOS getting in, it was impossible for the SPÖ to keep 6 seats - even though they improved their percentage in the election.

In the Vienna city council (100 seats), they gained seats:

I was actually referring to the Bundesrat business, thanks for the explanation

[CumbrianLefty]

When are the "final" final results expected?

[CumbrianLefty]

When are the "final" final results expected?

The official Vienna results have been released today (nothing has changed compared to the „preliminary“ results):

https://www.wien.gv.at/wahlergebnis/en/GR201/index.html

Literally not a single vote? That's impressive

[CumbrianLefty]

It is really astonishing that Pamela Rendi-Wagner, who would be a poster-child politician with her medical background in this situation, has been so ineffective these last few months and has suffered from such low ratings.

Maybe this will change her image in the public now (the reviews on social media are positive so far).

PRW is like Hermione Granger, but Austria acts like Slytherin.

Didn't she get loads of stick from party "grandees" almost as soon as being elected leader?

Sounds sort of familiar......

[CumbrianLefty]

The new SPÖ-NEOS government in Vienna will be sworn in tomorrow.

Mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ) re-elected with 60 of 100 votes.

This means he also got 6 votes from opposition parties, because SPÖ-NEOS only have 54/100.

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3077291

Do we know who these were?

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah, spoilsports.

[CumbrianLefty]

SPO edging up again?

[CumbrianLefty]

Even though the 2022 Presidential election is far away, there's a first ATV poll:

50% Alexander Van der Bellen (Greendependent, incumbent)
17% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)

That's a bit different from the last election they contested.

[CumbrianLefty]

That's a bit better for the SPO than the previous one?

[CumbrianLefty]

That's a bit better for the SPO than the previous one?

Better but still abysmal.

The ÖVP is now even attracting former SPÖ voters in rural areas, or new voters who would have voted SPÖ a few decades ago.

But those people now increasingly have white collar jobs instead of blue collar jobs and that’s why the SPÖ is declining everywhere in rural areas.

And the people with more precarious jobs are not voting SPÖ either any longer, but FPÖ.

Though tbf isn't Tyrol a long term OVP stronghold anyway?

[CumbrianLefty]

Christine Aschbacher (37, ÖVP) - Austrian Minister for Labour/Families/Youth - is under heavy pressure to resign after a „plagiarism hunter“ found out that about 20% of her doctorate work is plagiarized.



SPÖ, FPÖ & NEOS want her to resign, ÖVP & Greens are silent so far.

https://orf.at/stories/3196661

I suppose the cynical response here might be "only 20%?"

[CumbrianLefty]

Meanwhile, a new Vienna poll (Unique Research/"Krone", n=800, 19.-25. February):



https://www.krone.at/2353636

The current city government is SPÖ-NEOS, both of which are gaining - as is the FPÖ (because Strache is not included any longer). ÖVP/Greens are falling.

Is his outfit now officially defunct then?

[CumbrianLefty]

ÖVP drops to 33% in new „Profil“ magazine poll.

That’s the lowest in more than 2 years.

The FPÖ reaches a new high of 19% and has recovered from their Ibiza-Video scandal in 2019.

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-oevp-und-kanzler-kurz-verlieren/401345966

Tender Branson analysis:

The Kurz-ÖVP gained a lot of new voters after his takeover in early 2017: first, a lot of traditional soft FPÖ voters who found the Strache/Kickl policies too radical and after the Covid crisis hit early last year, the ÖVP ballooned to 45% - attracting SPÖ/FPÖ and NEOS voters.

They have lost all of the latter again during the past half year with their bad Covid management and now they are even losing their foundation of soft FPÖ voters that Kurz managed to bind to the party after the 2015-16 migrant invasion ...

Though you didn't mention this, it shows the OVP ahead of the SPO by "only" 33-24 - when was the last time they had that lead in single figures?

[CumbrianLefty]

R.I.P. this thread.

If its OK to ask - what happened?

[CumbrianLefty]

Oh dear, why do people do silly things like that?