Is Blue fading in the Northeast?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bush appears to have regain a large section of the old moderate suburbanite GOP base in the Northeast.
However as his national lead is fairly modest, he has almost certainly lost support somewhere else... I'm interested to hear you're opinions on where.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When you average the state polls out, you come up with roughly a 4 point Bush lead nationwide.

The only states from 2000, I can Bush having lost any support are NC and Colorado, maybe SC, Virginia and WV too, but those would be more questionable.

It depends how big Bush's lead is nationally though...
Good post though... So far you've been a fairly objective poster... keep it up

Generally I think that Bush has lost support in working class small town areas... but that so far Kerry hasn't gained their votes yet.
As for WV, Bush has certainly lost support in the Northern Panhandle and the Coalfield... he may have gained in the Charleston 'burbs.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

About WV, one of things that will make it trend more Rep. in the future is the skyrocketing growth of those Rep. Charleston suburbs.  In the opposite way, the growth of the Dem. DC suburbs will make Virginia trend more Dem. in future elections.  This of course, won't have the greatest of effects now.  Just a point.

Growth in the Charleston 'burbs has been able to make the gap in the WV legislature slightly less humiliating... I don't think it'll have much of an effect at Presidential level as the geography of WV restricts *massive* suburban growth (unless the 'burbs expanded further North... but NW WV (except the panhandle obviously) has been solidly Republican since the Civil War so it won't have a large effect... expanding too far upstream would piss off Democrat/UMW bosses... I don't see many developers taking that risk... (but if they do I can brush off those old "come home to a real fire... buy a house in Wales" jokes...)
I think suburban growth might help the GOP in tight Presidential elections mind.
Maybe even help them win the odd statewide elected office.