I would expect a result like this in a close race nationally.
I would expect in a race like this. This map has the same margin that Bush-Kerry did.
Trump 50.8
Biden 48.3
Minnesota and New Hampshire are closest races, followed by Maine and New Mexico. The closest Trump states are Nevada, Michigan, and Georgia. All at about 2-3. Tipping point is Arizona at the same margin it had in 2016. Wisconsin, North Carolina (actually pretty leftward trend) and Pennsylvania were won by 5, Florida by 8, Ohio by 12, and Iowa by 14.
I think Trump could plausibly even squeak out a win in MN if he's winning IA by that much.
