IA-Cygnal/ITR: Trump +14 over Biden

[MT Treasurer]

54.1% Donald Trump (R)
40.5% Joe Biden (D)

Conducted October 18 - 19, 2021
n=600 | ±4.0%

https://itrfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ITR-Foundation-Poll-Toplines-10-22-2021.pdf

Republican-leaning pollster.

[Spectator]

This is as much a tossup as Virginia is.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Trumpslide!

[MT Treasurer]

This is as much a tossup as Virginia is.

What’s really hilarious is that none of the states that were considered decisive/true battlegrounds in 2012 (VA, OH, FL, CO, NH, IA) are likely to be top-tier battlegrounds or seriously contested in 2024. At the very least, none of them will be the tipping-point state.

Shows you how quickly the electoral map changes.

[Xing]

I would expect a result like this in a close race nationally.

[Person Man]

I would expect a result like this in a close race nationally.

I would expect in a race like this. This map has the same margin that Bush-Kerry did.



Trump 50.8
Biden  48.3

Minnesota and New Hampshire are closest races, followed by Maine and New Mexico. The closest Trump states are Nevada, Michigan, and Georgia. All at about 2-3. Tipping point is Arizona at the same margin it had in 2016. Wisconsin, North Carolina (actually pretty leftward trend) and Pennsylvania were won by 5, Florida by 8, Ohio by 12, and Iowa by 14.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would expect a result like this in a close race nationally.

I would expect in a race like this. This map has the same margin that Bush-Kerry did.



Trump 50.8
Biden  48.3

Minnesota and New Hampshire are closest races, followed by Maine and New Mexico. The closest Trump states are Nevada, Michigan, and Georgia. All at about 2-3. Tipping point is Arizona at the same margin it had in 2016. Wisconsin, North Carolina (actually pretty leftward trend) and Pennsylvania were won by 5, Florida by 8, Ohio by 12, and Iowa by 14.

.
D's arent gonna lose the Rust belt based on a silly inflatable poll from IA, there was a poll in NH that showed SUNUNU up by 9 and he is now only up by 3 it's an R 9 State

[Sir Mohamed]

IA is as much gone for Dems as CO is gone for the GOP. That's just the truth.

[Del Tachi]

Trumpslide!

[Chips]

I would expect a result like this in a close race nationally.

I would expect in a race like this. This map has the same margin that Bush-Kerry did.



Trump 50.8
Biden  48.3

Minnesota and New Hampshire are closest races, followed by Maine and New Mexico. The closest Trump states are Nevada, Michigan, and Georgia. All at about 2-3. Tipping point is Arizona at the same margin it had in 2016. Wisconsin, North Carolina (actually pretty leftward trend) and Pennsylvania were won by 5, Florida by 8, Ohio by 12, and Iowa by 14.

I think Trump could plausibly even squeak out a win in MN if he's winning IA by that much.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would expect a result like this in a close race nationally.

I would expect in a race like this. This map has the same margin that Bush-Kerry did.



Trump 50.8
Biden  48.3

Minnesota and New Hampshire are closest races, followed by Maine and New Mexico. The closest Trump states are Nevada, Michigan, and Georgia. All at about 2-3. Tipping point is Arizona at the same margin it had in 2016. Wisconsin, North Carolina (actually pretty leftward trend) and Pennsylvania were won by 5, Florida by 8, Ohio by 12, and Iowa by 14.

I think Trump could plausibly even squeak out a win in MN if he's winning IA by that much.

This is a hack map, what polls show Trump winning other swing States

[Person Man]

I would expect a result like this in a close race nationally.

I would expect in a race like this. This map has the same margin that Bush-Kerry did.



Trump 50.8
Biden  48.3

Minnesota and New Hampshire are closest races, followed by Maine and New Mexico. The closest Trump states are Nevada, Michigan, and Georgia. All at about 2-3. Tipping point is Arizona at the same margin it had in 2016. Wisconsin, North Carolina (actually pretty leftward trend) and Pennsylvania were won by 5, Florida by 8, Ohio by 12, and Iowa by 14.

I think Trump could plausibly even squeak out a win in MN if he's winning IA by that much.

Like I said, they are won by Biden in this scenario by the margins AZ or GA were in 2020 or by as much as Michigan was lost in 2016....maybe New Hampshire would vote the same as it did in 2016?

This map just shows that it is possible for the EV margin to be similar to 2004 and 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would expect a result like this in a close race nationally.

I would expect in a race like this. This map has the same margin that Bush-Kerry did.



Trump 50.8
Biden  48.3

Minnesota and New Hampshire are closest races, followed by Maine and New Mexico. The closest Trump states are Nevada, Michigan, and Georgia. All at about 2-3. Tipping point is Arizona at the same margin it had in 2016. Wisconsin, North Carolina (actually pretty leftward trend) and Pennsylvania were won by 5, Florida by 8, Ohio by 12, and Iowa by 14.

I think Trump could plausibly even squeak out a win in MN if he's winning IA by that much.

Like I said, they are won by Biden in this scenario by the margins AZ or GA were in 2020 or by as much as Michigan was lost in 2016....maybe New Hampshire would vote the same as it did in 2016?

This map just shows that it is possible for the EV margin to be similar to 2004 and 2016.

Biden is not  Hillary Clinton and we are leading in PS Senate race the Rs can't beat Fetterman how are they gonna win OA, and all our DcGovs in mI, WI and NV are gonna be Reelected, it's a hack map

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

This is as much a tossup as Virginia is.

What’s really hilarious is that none of the states that were considered decisive/true battlegrounds in 2012 (VA, OH, FL, CO, NH, IA) are likely to be top-tier battlegrounds or seriously contested in 2024. At the very least, none of them will be the tipping-point state.

Shows you how quickly the electoral map changes.

Eh, I think NH is a dark horse swing state

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is as much a tossup as Virginia is.

What’s really hilarious is that none of the states that were considered decisive/true battlegrounds in 2012 (VA, OH, FL, CO, NH, IA) are likely to be top-tier battlegrounds or seriously contested in 2024. At the very least, none of them will be the tipping-point state.

Shows you how quickly the electoral map changes.

You have a solid conclusion here, but I don't think, in particular, FL will ever stop being a battleground in the next decade. Dems aren't going to knowingly concede 31 EVs to Rs in 2024, giving them the third-largest state in the country unchallenged.

[Senator Incitatus]

If the Trump-is-Toxic theorists are right, this suggests DeSantis would win the biggest landslide since 1988.

This is as much a tossup as Virginia is.

What’s really hilarious is that none of the states that were considered decisive/true battlegrounds in 2012 (VA, OH, FL, CO, NH, IA) are likely to be top-tier battlegrounds or seriously contested in 2024. At the very least, none of them will be the tipping-point state.

Shows you how quickly the electoral map changes.

You have a solid conclusion here, but I don't think, in particular, FL will ever stop being a battleground in the next decade. Dems aren't going to knowingly concede 31 EVs to Rs in 2024, giving them the third-largest state in the country unchallenged.

Agree with the theory but it may not be enough in practice. Republicans were forced to give up on CA and NJ pretty quickly in the 90s.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If the Trump-is-Toxic theorists are right, this suggests DeSantis would win the biggest landslide since 1988.

This is as much a tossup as Virginia is.

What’s really hilarious is that none of the states that were considered decisive/true battlegrounds in 2012 (VA, OH, FL, CO, NH, IA) are likely to be top-tier battlegrounds or seriously contested in 2024. At the very least, none of them will be the tipping-point state.

Shows you how quickly the electoral map changes.

You have a solid conclusion here, but I don't think, in particular, FL will ever stop being a battleground in the next decade. Dems aren't going to knowingly concede 31 EVs to Rs in 2024, giving them the third-largest state in the country unchallenged.

Agree with the theory but it may not be enough in practice. Republicans were forced to give up on CA and NJ pretty quickly in the 90s.

As it is, is 1990s CA and NJ really like-to-like comparisons to FL today?

[MT Treasurer]

This is as much a tossup as Virginia is.

What’s really hilarious is that none of the states that were considered decisive/true battlegrounds in 2012 (VA, OH, FL, CO, NH, IA) are likely to be top-tier battlegrounds or seriously contested in 2024. At the very least, none of them will be the tipping-point state.

Shows you how quickly the electoral map changes.

You have a solid conclusion here, but I don't think, in particular, FL will ever stop being a battleground in the next decade. Dems aren't going to knowingly concede 31 EVs to Rs in 2024, giving them the third-largest state in the country unchallenged.

In the vast majority of cases, it really doesn’t matter whether a party decides to "contest" a state or not, and parties actually very rarely concede states voluntarily (Democrats didn’t abandon FL in 2018/2020 either — they just couldn’t win it in those Democratic-leaning years and then retroactively blamed it entirely on the state party's incompetence, which is what they’ve been doing since 2010 if not earlier). Both of these things are particularly true at the presidential level (where states are generally lost/won not because of parties' decisions to concede/contest them but depending on their demographic composition, which usually predicts their approximate result in a national election). Trump made a play for MN in 2020 while barely contesting it in 2016 and it still trended away from him because (a) macro-level shifts among particular demographic groups which were very evident at the national level and in other states with a similar demographic profile as MN were reflected in the MN outcome and (b) the actual math just wasn’t there for the GOP, nor would it have been there for the GOP in that environment if they had contested the state even more intensely. This is not to say that local 'peculiarities' and campaigns' decisions to target certain states particularly vigorously do not matter at all, but they rarely account for more than 1-2% of the margin. It wouldn’t have mattered in MN, and we’re reaching the point (if we haven’t already) where it won’t matter in FL. Similarly, if FL eventually becomes truly competitive again, it will largely be due to factors beyond the FL Democratic Party's control (influx of D-leaning voters, R collapse in North FL, newer cohorts of retirees voting notably more D, etc.).

At some point it just comes down to whether the votes are there or not. If Republicans sweep the state in 2022 and no statewide race is even within 5 points despite Democrats (again) targeting the state, I really doubt that you’ll see much of a D effort in FL in 2024 in a closely contested national race.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In all fairness, Florida *is* truly competitive, and was so in 2016, and was so in 2020. Rs just did well enough outside of Miami-Dade to take the state in 2016, and well enough inside of it to win in 2020. (Trump was a very good fit for FL, and enjoyed something of a home state bonus there)
If Ds nominate Biden again, they will have the incumbency bonus that Trump had in 2020, and if they improve with Cubans (quite possible) they can already have two feathers in their cap.
Last time Florida voted against an incumbent president was in 1980.