NYC'13: Congrats to Mayor de Blasio

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Might De Blasio win every borough? Perhaps Thompson is favored in Bronx though.

[Sol]

Adding on to what BRTD said: If Quinn ends up over-performing her polls, what borough(s) could she win? Manhattan?

[Rocky Rockefeller]

My prediction:

41% De Blasio
24% Thompson
18% Quinn
17% Nobodies

51% Spitzer
49% Stringer

This is pretty much what I was thinking too.

[PolitiJunkie]

My prediction:

41% De Blasio
24% Thompson
18% Quinn
17% Nobodies

51% Spitzer
49% Stringer

This is pretty much what I was thinking too.

Yeah this looks right to me

[Kitteh]

I have a slightly pessimistic hunch that Stringer will beat out Spitzer in the comptroller's race (pessimistic because I prefer Spitzer), but who knows. If there is an underestimation of black turnout like people are saying, that should help Spitzer, no?

[nolesfan2011]

My predictions

Comptroller: Spitzer 52% Stringer 48%

Den mayoral: De Blasio 39% Thompson 24% Quinn 22% Weiner 7% Liu 6% Others 2%

GOP mayoral: Lhota 55% Catsimatidis 33% McDonald 10%

De Blasio has had a great late surge but I think he comes up just short, minority boost turnout will help Thompson get past Quinn. Liu and Weiner may actually flip spots, hard to tell.

Lhota should cruise, and I think Spitzer gets name recognition vote just enough to prevail.

[Badger]

Cuomo had some harsh words for Bloomberg and lauded De Blasio and his family.

It'd be nice if Cuomo was backing the progressive candidate, even if they do have roots back in HUD together.

Why would he do that?  Cuomo probably wants Lhota to win.

Huh?

You know the local game much better than I. What's your theory?

[bedstuy]

Cuomo had some harsh words for Bloomberg and lauded De Blasio and his family.

It'd be nice if Cuomo was backing the progressive candidate, even if they do have roots back in HUD together.

Why would he do that?  Cuomo probably wants Lhota to win.

Huh?

You know the local game much better than I. What's your theory?

Cuomo is crafty and doesn't seem to care about principle.  He knows that Democrats will vote for him no matter what.  So, his best strategy is to give Republicans what they want and appease the suburban swing voter at the expense of Democrats in New York City.  If there's a way to take money from homeless teens in the Bronx and turn it into a property tax cut for a middle class person in Long Island, he wants to do it. 

De Blasio might get in the way of that strategy with his liberal views.  He may whine about poor people or suggest raising taxes on the rich.  Cuomo doesn't want any part of that.

[Badger]

Cuomo had some harsh words for Bloomberg and lauded De Blasio and his family.

It'd be nice if Cuomo was backing the progressive candidate, even if they do have roots back in HUD together.

Why would he do that?  Cuomo probably wants Lhota to win.

Huh?

You know the local game much better than I. What's your theory?

Cuomo is crafty and doesn't seem to care about principle.  He knows that Democrats will vote for him no matter what.  So, his best strategy is to give Republicans what they want and appease the suburban swing voter at the expense of Democrats in New York City.  If there's a way to take money from homeless teens in the Bronx and turn it into a property tax cut for a middle class person in Long Island, he wants to do it. 

De Blasio might get in the way of that strategy with his liberal views.  He may whine about poor people or suggest raising taxes on the rich.  Cuomo doesn't want any part of that.

Interesting, though given the political and fundraising clout the NY mayor would have for it's state party, wouldn't he instead back Thompson to get the same basic lack of wave-making?

[bballrox4717]

Cuomo had some harsh words for Bloomberg and lauded De Blasio and his family.

It'd be nice if Cuomo was backing the progressive candidate, even if they do have roots back in HUD together.

Why would he do that?  Cuomo probably wants Lhota to win.

Huh?

You know the local game much better than I. What's your theory?

Cuomo is crafty and doesn't seem to care about principle.  He knows that Democrats will vote for him no matter what.  So, his best strategy is to give Republicans what they want and appease the suburban swing voter at the expense of Democrats in New York City.  If there's a way to take money from homeless teens in the Bronx and turn it into a property tax cut for a middle class person in Long Island, he wants to do it. 

De Blasio might get in the way of that strategy with his liberal views.  He may whine about poor people or suggest raising taxes on the rich.  Cuomo doesn't want any part of that.

Yeah, this makes no sense. Cuomo might be more moderate than his father, but what the hell does he gain from having Lhota as mayor? De Blasio and Cuomo have worked together in the past. There's no reason why they can't coordinate strategy.

I understand the pissing on Cuomo for what he did with the state senate, but it's honestly better off the way it happened. Unless it's something this splits his own party, Cuomo can get virtually anything he wants passed right now.

[Eraserhead]

Ah, primary day. I'm pretty excited about this one.

A possible "surprise" result might be Thompson greatly outperforming his poll numbers and coming within 5% of de Blasio. That's not to say I'm predicting that but I could see it happening more easily than I could see Quinn passing Thompson for second at this point.

[Eraserhead]

The de Blasio campaign is having a block party tonight.

[cinyc]

There's going to be an exit poll in New York City.

[Lief 🗽]

Results pages:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_county/NY_Mayor_0910.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

http://project.wnyc.org/election2013/

The second link will potentially be really awesome if it updates as quickly as the AP does.

[cinyc]

First Exit Polls (only of Democrats):

58% of Democrats think Stop and Frisk is Excessive; 38% Acceptable.
Extending Term Limits for Bloomberg 28% Good Idea; 66% Bad Idea
Most important issues: Jobs 30%; Education 20%; Crime 16%; Finances 12%; Housing 11%.

MoE +-4

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

when do polls close?

[cinyc]

when do polls close?

9PM. 

Given the NYC Board of Elections' traditional slow counting, we probably won't see any meaningful results until at least 10PM, maybe later.

[Badger]

First Exit Polls (only of Democrats):

58% of Democrats think Stop and Frisk is Excessive; 38% Acceptable.
Extending Term Limits for Bloomberg 28% Good Idea; 66% Bad Idea
Most important issues: Jobs 30%; Education 20%; Crime 16%; Finances 12%; Housing 11%.

MoE +-4

Surprising support for stop and frisk.

[cinyc]

More Preliminary Exit Polling:

-Almost 75% of Democratic primary voters say the city should move away from Bloomberg's policies.
-About 33% of Democratic primary voters say they were seeking a candidate who could "bring needed change."
-A narrow majority of Democratic primary voters approve of the way Bloomberg handled his 12 years in office.
-About 30% of Democratic primary voters say city schools improved in the Bloomberg years.

[Badger]

First Exit Polls (only of Democrats):

58% of Democrats think Stop and Frisk is Excessive; 38% Acceptable.
Extending Term Limits for Bloomberg 28% Good Idea; 66% Bad Idea
Most important issues: Jobs 30%; Education 20%; Crime 16%; Finances 12%; Housing 11%.

MoE +-4

More Preliminary Exit Polling:

-Almost 75% of Democratic primary voters say the city should move away from Bloomberg's policies.
-About 33% of Democratic primary voters say they were seeking a candidate who could "bring needed change."
-A narrow majority of Democratic primary voters approve of the way Bloomberg handled his 12 years in office.
-About 30% of Democratic primary voters say city schools improved in the Bloomberg years.

These appear to be strong signs for Blasio. Anyone willing to hazard a guess as to how these numbers affect the odds of him making it to 40%?

[patrick1]

Thompson had strong union support and the other candidates have their own core constituencies. My gut tells me DeBlasio doesnt sniff 40% but really I'm just guessing here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Did you vote?

[Niemeyerite]

When do polls close? Now?

[RogueBeaver]

When do polls close? Now?

9 Eastern.

[cinyc]

More Preliminary Exit Polling
Again, among Democratic primary voters.  Republicans weren't polled.

Favorables
DeBlasio about 67%
Thompson about 60%
Quinn about 40%
Weiner about 70% unfavorable

Spitzer about 50% favorable
Stringer about 67% favorable

About 40% say NYC economy is good or excellent
About 50% say NYC economy is not good or poor.