Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
Posts: 8,344
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« on: July 17, 2016, 04:04:37 PM » |
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« edited: July 17, 2016, 04:19:13 PM by Likely Voter »
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We are about to enter a new phase of the election with the conventions and on to the general. So after all the primaries and stuff for the last year, what chance do you think Trump has of winning?
538 has it between 33% (nowcast) and 37% (polls plus). The nowcast is of course most erratic and the day the Quinni polls came out this week Trump jumped up to 46%, but quickly dropped as more state polls came out, notably the NBC/Marist polls. As for the betting sites, Betfair has him at 29%, CNN Prediction market has him at 33% and PredictIt has him at 35%. But he has been trending up since a week ago.
So are they over estimating or under-estimating his chances? Or about right?
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