Will Rubio run?

[Mister Mets]

Poll is 52.4% no. That's kind of how I feel.

Florida's open gubernatorial election in 2018 gives him a comeback, and the Senate race would be competitive anyway. However, his odds of being on a winning national ticket are probably fifty percent lower, and he loses his bully pulpit as a Senator, when he became a member of the majority party very recently.

He might be well positioned in the Republican primary. Walker could be knocked on intellect, and Bush represents the past, so there is a sweet spot for a young guy with foreign policy chops. But I doubt his odds of winning the nomination would be higher than 20 percent. With a credible run, he might also be an ideal running mate for several other potential presidential nominees, but there are others who are unlikely to pick him. Rand Paul probably won't go for a hawkish southern Senator. Jeb's unlikely to pick someone from Florida.

My hunch is he'll opt for another term. But he could also decide he has no problem gambling at national office, with lucrative corporate positions as a fallback.