OH-PPP (2018): Brown leads Mandel by 9

[windjammer]

I dont see how he could survive a wave though.

[windjammer]

I dont see how he could survive a wave though.

That's because you don't live in Ohio   It'd take a 2014-level wave or a 2010-wave with a really strong recruit running a really good campaign for him to lose.  Brown would probably beat Kasich by 5-6% in a midterm, although it'd probably be close until September/October.  I really don't think Kasich wants it though. 

Tiberi is a strong candidate, but he's been my Congressman for my entire life and having heard him speak on more than a few occasions, he often comes across as smug, used car salesman type.  You kinda feel like you want to reach into your pocket to make sure your wallet is still there after hearing him give a stump speech   He can also get pretty vicious with his attack ads (even against opponents who don't have a chance of winning) in a way that I suspect will rub a lot of Ohioans the wrong way.  That said, I think Stivers and Tiberi would each give Brown a real fight.  And then you have folks like Mandel, Mary Taylor, etc who may run, but wouldn't win even in a wave. 

Brown's a very strong incumbent and even many of the suburban country-club Republicans here don't seem to mind him that much.  He's the type of guy who could survive a wave that drags down incumbents running in far friendlier states. 

And again, this idea that we automatically know the national mood in November 2018 over two years in advance is pretty silly. 

I don't deny his strength, but in the case of a republican wave, I don't see how he could survive. The USA is too polarized, and even more in Ohio.

[windjammer]

Yea, I don't see Brown losing either, tbh. I'd prefer to go after other, less difficult-to-win seats in '18.

MO, WI and IN are the only seats that are less difficult for them to win.

And ND, along with possibly Montana, of course.

OH will definitely be an easier pickup for Republicans than ND or MT. In fact, I could easily see one of Heitkamp or Tester (most likely Heitkamp, ugh) surviving 2018 if the GOP nominates a weak candidate again. Against a strong Republican like Kasich, Sherrod Brown is toast. Against Mandel, it's a Tossup.

Kasich will probably mull a 2020 bid though.

[windjammer]

Yea, I don't see Brown losing either, tbh. I'd prefer to go after other, less difficult-to-win seats in '18.

MO, WI and IN are the only seats that are less difficult for them to win.

And ND, along with possibly Montana, of course.

OH will definitely be an easier pickup for Republicans than ND or MT. In fact, I could easily see one of Heitkamp or Tester (most likely Heitkamp, ugh) surviving 2018 if the GOP nominates a weak candidate again. Against a strong Republican like Kasich, Sherrod Brown is toast. Against Mandel, it's a Tossup.

Kasich will probably mull a 2020 bid though.

Not a chance, also Mandel wouldn't win even in 2010-level wave.

So Kasich is running for senate in 2018?