OH-PPP (2018): Brown leads Mandel by 9

[MT Treasurer]

Sherrod Brown (D, inc.): 45%
Josh Mandel (R): 36%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_72916.pdf

[windjammer]

I dont see how he could survive a wave though.

[Maxwell]

I dont see how he could survive a wave though.

He could probably do it if Republicans nominate Mandel again, who is a pariah in the Ohio Republican Party and ran a joke campaign in 2012 that was propped up by millions of outside dollars.

[Heisenberg]

I dont see how he could survive a wave though.

He could probably do it if Republicans nominate Mandel again, who is a pariah in the Ohio Republican Party and ran a joke campaign in 2012 that was propped up by millions of outside dollars.

Mandel is not a good candidate. I wish they polled Tiberi or Kasich, against the former the race is a tossup, against Kasich it would be Safe R unless 2018 turned into a MASSIVE Democratic wave.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I dont see how he could survive a wave though.

That's because you don't live in Ohio   It'd take a 2014-level wave or a 2010-wave with a really strong recruit running a really good campaign for him to lose.  Brown would probably beat Kasich by 5-6% in a midterm, although it'd probably be close until September/October.  I really don't think Kasich wants it though. 

Tiberi is a strong candidate, but he's been my Congressman for my entire life and having heard him speak on more than a few occasions, he often comes across as smug, used car salesman type.  You kinda feel like you want to reach into your pocket to make sure your wallet is still there after hearing him give a stump speech   He can also get pretty vicious with his attack ads (even against opponents who don't have a chance of winning) in a way that I suspect will rub a lot of Ohioans the wrong way.  That said, I think Stivers and Tiberi would each give Brown a real fight.  And then you have folks like Mandel, Mary Taylor, etc who may run, but wouldn't win even in a wave. 

Brown's a very strong incumbent and even many of the suburban country-club Republicans here don't seem to mind him that much.  He's the type of guy who could survive a wave that drags down incumbents running in far friendlier states. 

And again, this idea that we automatically know the national mood in November 2018 over two years in advance is pretty silly. 

[Xing]

If Republicans seriously run Mandel again, I'm confident Brown will win. Otherwise, I'd expect a competitive race.

[Vega]

I didn't know 18 year olds could run for Senate!

[windjammer]

I dont see how he could survive a wave though.

That's because you don't live in Ohio   It'd take a 2014-level wave or a 2010-wave with a really strong recruit running a really good campaign for him to lose.  Brown would probably beat Kasich by 5-6% in a midterm, although it'd probably be close until September/October.  I really don't think Kasich wants it though. 

Tiberi is a strong candidate, but he's been my Congressman for my entire life and having heard him speak on more than a few occasions, he often comes across as smug, used car salesman type.  You kinda feel like you want to reach into your pocket to make sure your wallet is still there after hearing him give a stump speech   He can also get pretty vicious with his attack ads (even against opponents who don't have a chance of winning) in a way that I suspect will rub a lot of Ohioans the wrong way.  That said, I think Stivers and Tiberi would each give Brown a real fight.  And then you have folks like Mandel, Mary Taylor, etc who may run, but wouldn't win even in a wave. 

Brown's a very strong incumbent and even many of the suburban country-club Republicans here don't seem to mind him that much.  He's the type of guy who could survive a wave that drags down incumbents running in far friendlier states. 

And again, this idea that we automatically know the national mood in November 2018 over two years in advance is pretty silly. 

I don't deny his strength, but in the case of a republican wave, I don't see how he could survive. The USA is too polarized, and even more in Ohio.

[SATW]

I dont see how he could survive a wave though.

That's because you don't live in Ohio   It'd take a 2014-level wave or a 2010-wave with a really strong recruit running a really good campaign for him to lose.  Brown would probably beat Kasich by 5-6% in a midterm, although it'd probably be close until September/October.  I really don't think Kasich wants it though. 

Tiberi is a strong candidate, but he's been my Congressman for my entire life and having heard him speak on more than a few occasions, he often comes across as smug, used car salesman type.  You kinda feel like you want to reach into your pocket to make sure your wallet is still there after hearing him give a stump speech   He can also get pretty vicious with his attack ads (even against opponents who don't have a chance of winning) in a way that I suspect will rub a lot of Ohioans the wrong way.  That said, I think Stivers and Tiberi would each give Brown a real fight.  And then you have folks like Mandel, Mary Taylor, etc who may run, but wouldn't win even in a wave. 

Brown's a very strong incumbent and even many of the suburban country-club Republicans here don't seem to mind him that much.  He's the type of guy who could survive a wave that drags down incumbents running in far friendlier states. 

And again, this idea that we automatically know the national mood in November 2018 over two years in advance is pretty silly. 

Yea, I don't see Brown losing either, tbh. I'd prefer to go after other, less difficult-to-win seats in '18.

Also, question about Mary Taylor: What's her future in OH politics? she seems more competent than Mandel but hasn't really made any moves, that I've noticed, for higher offices?

[Vosem]

Speaking from the ground here in Ohio, Sherrod Brown is definitely pretty popular and is seen as a reasonable Democrat -- that said, he would still have lost, even against Josh Mandel (who I personally am a very big fan of) had his reelection race been in 2010 or 2014. If 2018 has similar patterns as a midterm under a Democratic President, then he'll lose unless someone totally out of left field is the Republican candidate.

I dont see how he could survive a wave though.

He could probably do it if Republicans nominate Mandel again, who is a pariah in the Ohio Republican Party and ran a joke campaign in 2012 that was propped up by millions of outside dollars.

Mandel isn't a pariah in the Republican Party (it is true that he doesn't get along with John Kasich specifically, but that's far from making someone a pariah), still has lots of friends from outside the state, and really doesn't play any worse than Generic R. Unless the environment in 2018 is meaningfully better for Democrats than it was in 2010 or 2014, Mandel would almost certainly defeat Brown.

The primary is harder to predict. Tiberi would be able to give Mandel a race, for instance (though I'd back Mandel in a primary against virtually anyone in the OHGOP), but Brown wouldn't really be any more endangered (or any safer, on the other hand) against Tiberi than Mandel.

[Vega]

Yea, I don't see Brown losing either, tbh. I'd prefer to go after other, less difficult-to-win seats in '18.

MO, WI and IN are the only seats that are less difficult for them to win.

And ND, along with possibly Montana, of course.

[IceSpear]

If Republicans seriously run Mandel again, I'm confident Brown will win. Otherwise, I'd expect a competitive race.

[JMT]

Brown is likely favored to win against any potential opponent at this point, but the election is more than 2 years away. I expect Republicans will do well in 2018, but this race will be competitive because Brown is a strong incumbent. Especially because Ohio is a swing state, a lot depends on the national climate and the candidate Republicans manage to recruit. We'll have a better idea of how this race will play out after 2016 is over.

[rpryor03]

Also, question about Mary Taylor: What's her future in OH politics? she seems more competent than Mandel but hasn't really made any moves, that I've noticed, for higher offices?

She's made a few bad gaffes over the last few years.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Yea, I don't see Brown losing either, tbh. I'd prefer to go after other, less difficult-to-win seats in '18.

MO, WI and IN are the only seats that are less difficult for them to win.

And ND, along with possibly Montana, of course.

And possibly VA, if Kaine vacates.

[windjammer]

Yea, I don't see Brown losing either, tbh. I'd prefer to go after other, less difficult-to-win seats in '18.

MO, WI and IN are the only seats that are less difficult for them to win.

And ND, along with possibly Montana, of course.

OH will definitely be an easier pickup for Republicans than ND or MT. In fact, I could easily see one of Heitkamp or Tester (most likely Heitkamp, ugh) surviving 2018 if the GOP nominates a weak candidate again. Against a strong Republican like Kasich, Sherrod Brown is toast. Against Mandel, it's a Tossup.

Kasich will probably mull a 2020 bid though.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yea, I don't see Brown losing either, tbh. I'd prefer to go after other, less difficult-to-win seats in '18.

MO, WI and IN are the only seats that are less difficult for them to win.

And ND, along with possibly Montana, of course.

OH will definitely be an easier pickup for Republicans than ND or MT. In fact, I could easily see one of Heitkamp or Tester (most likely Heitkamp, ugh) surviving 2018 if the GOP nominates a weak candidate again. Against a strong Republican like Kasich, Sherrod Brown is toast. Against Mandel, it's a Tossup.

Kasich will probably mull a 2020 bid though.

Not a chance, also Mandel wouldn't win even in 2010-level wave.

[windjammer]

Yea, I don't see Brown losing either, tbh. I'd prefer to go after other, less difficult-to-win seats in '18.

MO, WI and IN are the only seats that are less difficult for them to win.

And ND, along with possibly Montana, of course.

OH will definitely be an easier pickup for Republicans than ND or MT. In fact, I could easily see one of Heitkamp or Tester (most likely Heitkamp, ugh) surviving 2018 if the GOP nominates a weak candidate again. Against a strong Republican like Kasich, Sherrod Brown is toast. Against Mandel, it's a Tossup.

Kasich will probably mull a 2020 bid though.

Not a chance, also Mandel wouldn't win even in 2010-level wave.

So Kasich is running for senate in 2018?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yea, I don't see Brown losing either, tbh. I'd prefer to go after other, less difficult-to-win seats in '18.

MO, WI and IN are the only seats that are less difficult for them to win.

And ND, along with possibly Montana, of course.

OH will definitely be an easier pickup for Republicans than ND or MT. In fact, I could easily see one of Heitkamp or Tester (most likely Heitkamp, ugh) surviving 2018 if the GOP nominates a weak candidate again. Against a strong Republican like Kasich, Sherrod Brown is toast. Against Mandel, it's a Tossup.

Kasich will probably mull a 2020 bid though.

Not a chance, also Mandel wouldn't win even in 2010-level wave.

So Kasich is running for senate in 2018?

Nope, I think he's about done with elected office once his term ends.

[BuckeyeNut]

Kasich's done.
Taylor just said she'll be running for Governor.
Mandel is in.
Stivers isn't, given his run for Chairman of the NRCC. Part of his platform is he's guaranteed to be in the House a long time due to the way the 15th is cut.
Tiberi is likely in (because Stivers isn't). He's a strong Kasich ally (he replaced him in the House), and the GOP primary is going to get ugly. Although perhaps less so than the Gubernatorial one.

Brown's a strong candidate who knows the state like the back of his hand. It took a Taft after a decade of Democratic control of the State for Brown to lose an election. 2018 will have to be as bad as the past two midterms and a stellar candidate will have to run.

Admittedly, Tiber is a worry, given his credentials, but most Ohioans won't give a rats-ass about the intra-party politics that will pit Mandel and Tiberi against one another. Mandel has the better statewide name ID, and Tiberi isn't guaranteed to win the primary.

[Badger]

Brown only ran slightly ahead of Obama in a presidential year against a candidate with definite baggage. He's played economic populism well, but he's more liberal than most Ohioans. Against a strong candidate in a midterm year, he's potentially vulnerable.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Brown only ran slightly ahead of Obama in a presidential year against a candidate with definite baggage. He's played economic populism well, but he's more liberal than most Ohioans. Against a strong candidate in a midterm year, he's potentially vulnerable.

I'm not denying he's vulnerable and Tiberi would definitely be a tough opponent, but we don't know how bad a year 2018 will be for Democrats or even who Brown will be facing.  Furthermore, I think the idea that we can already say with absolute certainty that Brown is somehow automatically dead in the water in 2018 simply b/c he's a Democrat running statewide in OH in a midterm is ridiculous.