2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan

[lfromnj]

Unfathomably based. Michigan has had the best redistricting process in the country and I don't think it's particularly close.

How is GR Muskegon good.

Republicans oppose any sort of national gerrymandering ban.  Given that, why should anyone care if conservatives feel - rightly or wrongly - that they’ve been the victims of gerrymandering?  

How exactly would a national gerrymandering ban help Meijer who just got gerrymandered out of any seat past 2022?

This argument is so silly. It makes sense to attack Kinzinger on this but this is just stupid.

[lfromnj]

There's also a chance  Levin goes for the Oakland seat. Incumbents always run to the safe seat. I think Joe Walsh is one of the few in 2010 who didn't.

[lfromnj]

There's also a chance  Levin goes for the Oakland seat. Incumbents always run to the safe seat. I think Joe Walsh is one of the few in 2010 who didn't.

Stevens already in the past minutes announced their intention to run for the Oakland seat and Slotkin for the Lansing one, so Levin would be announcing a primary campaign.

Does the new MI-11 have more of Stevens' territory or Levin's? Because it looks like she has more of her turf in the seat than he does...

More of Stevens of course but the Levin name will even it out. After that Levin gets a safe district for the decade rather than having to run a campaign every 2 years.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/CraigDMauger/status/1475940345544335368

Boom

[lfromnj]

Partisan fairness is splitting Ann ARbor to give Democrats 21 /38 seats.

[lfromnj]

It's looking like these midwestern states will be democracies heading into 2022: MI, MN, IA, OH (pending Supreme Court ruling)
These states will not be functioning democracies: IL, IN, WI

IA and OH assume that Republicans have an overwhelming advantage but will win based on fair maps.

How exactly is Michigan a Democracy but Indiana not?

Michigan splits East Lansing and Lansing in the senate and Indiana splits West and Lafayette in the senate. If you are going to complain about Indiana 05, the GR Muskegon seat is pretty damn bad as well.

The Indiana state house map is also pretty damn good on COI's from what Ive seen athough the state senate did keep the gerrymander.

[lfromnj]

It's looking like these midwestern states will be democracies heading into 2022: MI, MN, IA, OH (pending Supreme Court ruling)
These states will not be functioning democracies: IL, IN, WI

IA and OH assume that Republicans have an overwhelming advantage but will win based on fair maps.

How exactly is Michigan a Democracy but Indiana not?

Michigan splits East Lansing and Lansing in the senate and Indiana splits West and Lafayette in the senate. If you are going to complain about Indiana 05, the GR Muskegon seat is pretty damn bad as well.

The Indiana state house map is also pretty damn good on COI's from what Ive seen athough the state senate did keep the gerrymander.
Michigan has some of the worst legislative maps in the entire midwest.

Michigan drew a map where if Republicans win a majority of the vote, they're probably winning the legislature, and vice versa for the Dems. That's what I mean by a functioning democracy. In Wisconsin, Democrats can win majority after majority of voters and still never get close to government.

Why should Indiana Republicans be forced to draw a Democratic gerrymander before they can be called a Democracy?

What exactly is fair about Biden winning 55% of senate seats for partisan fairness? And yes I don't see anything wrong with that # but the Ann Arbor area is an explicit gerrymander so there was no reason to draw it like that.

[lfromnj]

Why should Indiana Republicans be forced to draw a Democratic gerrymander before they can be called a Democracy?

Why did they need to draw a Republican gerrymander given that they're easily the majority party in the state any way?

The state senate wanted to save their incumbents. It seems the state house didn't feel like that and drew a quite fair map that is probably the best legislative map in the Midwest other than maybe what MN will have. (It does have a few excessive unnecesary county splits IMO)




The MI senate map does this in Lansing/East Lansing. What exactly is the difference? You can't defend the MI state senate on partisan fairness grounds as it gives Biden 55% of seats so I don't really see the difference between Indiana vs Michigan's state senate maps while the Indiana state house map is infinitely superior (it has some mild incumbent protection in Hamilton County but it just involved in the new seat there being a Dem sink.)

[lfromnj]

What exactly is fair about Biden winning 55% of senate seats for partisan fairness? And yes I don't see anything wrong with that # but the Ann Arbor area is an explicit gerrymander so there was no reason to draw it like that.

What's unfair about it? Biden won 51%, and there are only 38 Senators, so that's quite close. If Biden won one fewer seat, you'd be an exact match.

So why does the Ann Arbor or Lansing crack need to be done? Its clearly a gerrymander and there's no other justification other than partisan fairness but it doesn't even fill that goal. If you are going to attack Indiana as a non functioning Democracy than so is Michigan. I don't have a problem with Biden getting 55% of seats if it was natural, I have a issue with it being done through an independent commission and people trying to claim its a fair map. It also clearly goes beyond partisan fairness so they further gerrymandered than required to be "fair"

Also let's not forget the disgustingness of the VRA seats. People can complain about the current state house maps having the packed seats but the MI GOP created 5 black majority state senate seats that are not overpacked while still not splitting any city other than Detroit. (And no Wayne isn't gerrymandered, Oakland and Macomb are but wayne is drawn pretty fairly while still preserving COI's/city lines while working with the VRA)

[lfromnj]

What exactly is fair about Biden winning 55% of senate seats for partisan fairness? And yes I don't see anything wrong with that # but the Ann Arbor area is an explicit gerrymander so there was no reason to draw it like that.

What's unfair about it? Biden won 51%, and there are only 38 Senators, so that's quite close. If Biden won one fewer seat, you'd be an exact match.

In a first past the post system, fairness shouldn't be measured by proportionality in results, because in theory the system is about representing distinct geographical communities rather than the combined preferences of all voters.

(I suspect we agree that that's pretty dumb--PR is obviously a better system--but if we are choosing to do FPTP we should actually do it in a way which is most sensible, rather than attempting a proportional map which likely won't stay that way all decade given trends and swings).

You are getting at the heart of this issue here, and I think a problem is that people never chose the FPTP system because it's something we inherited from a long time ago before proportional systems were feasible. And we've seen in recent years how either independently or deliberately, it's used to disenfranchise minorities. When used in conjunction with entrenched racial segregation (WI), it's not far off what we had in the South before the 1960s.

Wisconsin is not a good example.

Wisconsin clearly had functioning use of district representation. Paul Ryan won 60-70% of the vote in a swing SE wisconsin district. Tammy Baldwin struggled to win a Madison district. Democrats nearly won the Waukesha portion of a South Milwaukee Waukesha district in 2000.   It's pretty clear until very recently people in Wisconsin were clearly choosing for someone rather than a party to represent their district. PR makes little sense in this situation. Even if Paul Ryan is a far right hack the people of Southern Wisconsin chose him

Even then looking at racial segregation is a weak argument for Wisconsin even if Milwaukee is very segregated. In 2012 in the Milwaukee region you had super D arguably "packed" areas in Milwaukee. Then you had swingy suburban regions in the rest of the county . After that you had nearly as R areas that were higher turnout in WOW. It clearly cancels out.  The rest of the state had the strongly D Madison area and then a bunch of swingy rurals or small cities.

Now what happens:
A few inner ring suburbs flip near Milwaukee. WOW gets much less red but it doesn't matter.
The inner part of the Strongly D Madison area gets even more D but the surrounding rurals don't really change. The rest of the state gets more R. Milwaukee actually loses population and turnout crashes overall.

Segregation patterns didn't change. Voting patterns did.

[lfromnj]

I placed a new district on DRA, taking into account the boundaries of the former districts. That's what I got as a result

The new 11th district includes
349,572 people from the former 11th district (Stevens)
233,676 people from the former 14th district (Lawrence)
192,254 people from the former 9th district (Levin)

One thing to note is that other than Levin's home the parts from Levin's district is the Dem primary base .

[lfromnj]

I placed a new district on DRA, taking into account the boundaries of the former districts. That's what I got as a result

The new 11th district includes
349,572 people from the former 11th district (Stevens)
233,676 people from the former 14th district (Lawrence)
192,254 people from the former 9th district (Levin)

One thing to note is that other than Levin's home the parts from Levin's district is the Dem primary base .

Yes, but you can't exactly outmath a 2:3 ratio, roughly.

https://twitter.com/MassJumbo/status/1475977221521252353?s=20

Oh yeah of course, I knew that Steven's would have more Biden voters but it does help Levin out.

Also by the way Stevens moved to Waterford. It really is funny how Stevens is from Waterford while Levin is from Bloomfield .

[lfromnj]

I placed a new district on DRA, taking into account the boundaries of the former districts. That's what I got as a result

The new 11th district includes
349,572 people from the former 11th district (Stevens)
233,676 people from the former 14th district (Lawrence)
192,254 people from the former 9th district (Levin)

Also did the same for MI-03. New MI-03 includes more people (443,012) from the Huizenga's district than from Meijer's district (386,991).

So, I wouldn't be surprised to see Huizenga running against Meijer and winning with Trump's endorsement and establishment support

Why would he want to primary Meijer over Upton?

Use the Andy Levin rule .

[lfromnj]

Again we just saw Andy Levin do the same, why would we expect Huizenga to do any different?

[lfromnj]

People realize that he only did like 2.5 points better than Trump in a very ancestrally Republican area? John James only lost it by 2, although I have a hunch some of it was a media market advantage? No other reason for James to win Muskegon .

[lfromnj]

People realize that he only did like 2.5 points better than Trump in a very ancestrally Republican area? John James only lost it by 2, although I have a hunch some of it was a media market advantage? No other reason for James to win Muskegon .

That was before he got to congress and voted to impeach Trump. That will cause the moderate suburbanites to salivate over him

I mean he really should have done better consider his name sounds like a gold tier name. Just seems like he's a weak candidate.

[lfromnj]

What exactly is fair about Biden winning 55% of senate seats for partisan fairness? And yes I don't see anything wrong with that # but the Ann Arbor area is an explicit gerrymander so there was no reason to draw it like that.

lfromnj, I just noticed that the State House map has more Trump seats than Biden seats, even though Trump lost the state. Were you aware of this and if so, why didn't you mention it when decrying how unfair the Senate map was? It seems to be that two maps that are both quite close to parity, but biased in different directions, would cancel each other out in an elegant way. It would mean that any election that is close to 50-50 is likely to result in a split legislature and you need to get (pulling a random number) 53% or more to get unified government.

Because as I stated the Michigan state senate went above and beyond the gerrymander for partisan fairness. The ann arbor split is unnecessary  yet was still done. So I dont see why people are defending this as a pinnacle of fairness. The state house is not as strongly focused on partisan fairness and a bit closer to what naturally happens ? The state house map is still pretty garbage.  That 7 way split of Washentaw to begin with . The Monroe downriver triple split(which actually helps the Trump #s but is still garbage) 5 way split of grand rapids and Lansing Democrats basically getting to draw their own map.
I actually don't see that much wrong with a 21 17 split on paper. Its just they gerrymandered further than required if one even cares about partisan fairness.

Overall the Monroe Downriver split just shows the silliness of drawing in that manner. Trends change and go. Communities generally don't within 10 years(exceptions lie to areas like Loudoun county or similar)

[lfromnj]

I'm happy Meijer is showing some courage and sticking with his district. It's pretty close to a tossup even with it's adjustment left. Meijer should hypothetically be able to develop unique strength in his district. He's very moderate and carries the name of an iconic locally based business. I could see him keeping the district at least until the next blue wave and maybe even past that.

His 2020 performance was underwhelming, however. To do only +2 over Trump, who is an atrocious fit for the district, may signal that he is not very respected. Perhaps he's just viewed as a rich kid. Can someone from Western Michigan comment?

Meijer isn't that strong. He underran John James by like 3 points.

[lfromnj]

I'm happy Meijer is showing some courage and sticking with his district. It's pretty close to a tossup even with it's adjustment left. Meijer should hypothetically be able to develop unique strength in his district. He's very moderate and carries the name of an iconic locally based business. I could see him keeping the district at least until the next blue wave and maybe even past that.

His 2020 performance was underwhelming, however. To do only +2 over Trump, who is an atrocious fit for the district, may signal that he is not very respected. Perhaps he's just viewed as a rich kid. Can someone from Western Michigan comment?

Meijer isn't that strong. He underran John James by like 3 points.

Was Hillary Scholten a good candidate? Meijer really should have done better given that he is a Meijer and the area's love of Republicans down ballot.

Turns out he just isn't a very good candidate.

Paging MT Treasurer.

[lfromnj]

I'm happy Meijer is showing some courage and sticking with his district. It's pretty close to a tossup even with it's adjustment left. Meijer should hypothetically be able to develop unique strength in his district. He's very moderate and carries the name of an iconic locally based business. I could see him keeping the district at least until the next blue wave and maybe even past that.

His 2020 performance was underwhelming, however. To do only +2 over Trump, who is an atrocious fit for the district, may signal that he is not very respected. Perhaps he's just viewed as a rich kid. Can someone from Western Michigan comment?

Meijer isn't that strong. He underran John James by like 3 points.

Was Hillary Scholten a good candidate? Meijer really should have done better given that he is a Meijer and the area's love of Republicans down ballot.

Turns out he just isn't a very good candidate.

Paging MT Treasurer.

I feel like he's actually a better candidate now than he was in 2020. He has the experience of running in a tough race and he's started to carve out a distinctive brand, while he was previously somewhat of a Generic R.

He had gold tier name recognition. Its pretty clear he's a fairly meh candidate and I don't see how impeaching Trump is going to make him god tier with moderates.

[lfromnj]

An interesting development in also how stupid they went for partisan fairness. They crossed the Monroe Wayne border multiple times to create more Dem composite districts but actually increases a Trump district. Meanwhile they also split Washtenaw like 7 times. It perfectly nests into 4 very clean and obvious COI seats(Ann Arbor North and 1 South, 1 Ypsi, 1 rest of county)

[lfromnj]

https://www.wkar.org/wkar-news/2022-01-28/league-of-women-voters-activist-groups-plan-suit-over-partisan-bias-of-michigans-new-districts

Over the state house map because muh 2% R efficiency gap. Don't forget they already split Washtenaw 7 ways, Lansing Democrats and GR Dems get 5 seats each as well. Meanwhile downriver and Macomb dems could get absolutely screwed for 2022.

[lfromnj]

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2022/03/29/black-residents-challenge-metro-detroit-redistricting-maps-federal-court/7202491001/?gnt-cfr=1

Federal lawsuit over Michigan legislative maps.