I have more than an "ounce", otherwise I wouldn't even know who Franks is. Maybe not a lot but more than an ounce.
That "He'd probably just lose again." statement was not about the area, just elections in general, because you can't deny that rematches usually don't result in a change for who lost last time.
If I had time to look up your previous posts, I beleive you said something as to the lines of that Dayton would probably win unless Kennedy implying Kennedy was a top tier candidate when he's rather generic.
Dayton was clearly a target in 2006 and when people starting saying they were interested in the seat, he announced his retirement. That seems to be a sign that he was afraid of defeat (unless you know of another reason). Also, the fact that almost all of the MN GOP leadership seems to be lining up behind Kennedy makes him seem like a pretty good candidate. I never stated anything about him being amazingly popular though. Put words in my mouth and you'll just end up taking them back.
I was rather suprised when he retired, I don't know the whole story, but I guarantee it was not because he was scared of Kennedy. He might've been vulnerable overall, but no one was thinking "Dayton can win against most GOP candidates, but there's no way he can beat Mark Kennedy!"
The GOP are lining up behind Kennedy because much stronger candidates are unlikely to run and they want to stop Grams at all costs because he's simply the wost possible guy they could run. Kennedy is the "establishment" candidate, but we all know that doesn't mean the best. It's kind of like how Kerry was the establishment candidate to stop Dean, but he certainly wasn't the best.