latest Betfair odds

[mencken]

Bush=Perry/Giuliani
Rubio=Romney
Walker=Bachmann/Thompson
Trump=Palin/Paul
Kasich=Huntsman/McCain
Fiorina=Ryan/Gingrich
Cruz=Paul/Huckabee

[mencken]

Cruz has nearly doubled his price in the last week.

[mencken]

Funny how Paul's price was much higher in 2008 than 2012 despite him objectively coming much closer the second time. Obviously his 2008 price was massively inflated by zealous supporters, but why did it still add up to ~100%? Were Paul supporters also shorting Giuliani/Romney/McCain below their natural levels?

[mencken]

Republicans
Rubio 38.8
Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1334415#msg1334415

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Hyped media frontrunner with little support in the early states to show for it? Check.

Trump 19.3
Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1334415#msg1334415

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Centrist businessman staking out rabidly right-wing positions on major issues to pander to conservatives? Check.

Cruz 11.6
Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1334415#msg1334415

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Niche candidate for constitutionalists with little chance of winning over the Republican mainstream? Check.

Bush 10.0
Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1334415#msg1334415

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Establishment fronturnner long since written off for dead? Check.

Carson 6.4
Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1334415#msg1334415

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Dark-horse evangelical firebrand? Check.

So, maybe Bush has a chance after all?

[mencken]

I am still scratching my head at how Bush is still at 10.

[mencken]

Christie should actually be higher than Bush imo. I think he will be soon enough.

Only because Bush is absurdly high even now. Christie should have Bush's current share price, Bush should have Carson's.

[mencken]

Cruz is surging! Bush is surging! RIP America.

At least the Kasich bump disappeared and he's back down.

Rubio 41
Cruz 29
Trump 24
Bush 11
Christie 6
Kasich 2
Carson 1
Fiorina 1
Paul 1

I am liking those 116% odds that someone wins the Republican nomination. (Seriously, though, someone probably just loaded up on Cruz stock and sent the market into disequilibrium)

[mencken]

Bush is still way overvalued.

It's funny how overvalued Giuliani was at this point 8 years ago, especially if you look at the thread Morden linked. Giuliani's campaign was crashing and burning at this point.

Probably just lack of liquidity. Nobody's buying, so the most recent sale price remains high.

Would not the cumulative share price be far in excess of 100 were that the case?

[mencken]

Bush and Rubio both surging.  Trump gets big announcement bump...

Democrats
Clinton 80.6
Sanders 10.0
O'Malley 7.4
Biden 6.4
Warren 6.0

Up: Bush, Rubio, Trump, Kasich, Graham, Jindal
Down: Walker, Paul

Republicans
Bush 36.1
Rubio 30.5
Walker 19.6
Paul 8.1
Trump 6.5
Kasich 5.3
Huckabee 4.8
Graham 4.2
Jindal 3.4
Cruz 3.3
Carson 2.9
Perry 2.6

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 33.7
Perry 14.0
Pawlenty 13.5
Huntsman 12.1
Bachmann 8.2
Palin 4.5
Cain 3.4
Paul 2.2
Giuliani 1.9
Gingrich 1.5
Ryan 1.5
Christie 1.4
Santorum 0.7
Pataki 0.5

My how things have changed.

[mencken]

Kind of in a state of flux at the moment, but it looks something like Rubio ~50, Trump ~25, Cruz ~15, Jeb! ~5

[mencken]

I think Rubio will shoot back up into the 30s after a decent performance tonight

What is a decent performance? It would obviously have to include Minnesota, possibly Alaska. Considering 11 states are voting today, a decent performance by any objective measure should have Rubio tie Trump in number of states won, if only to make up for his deficit heading into the contest. So, I would think wins in three of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Georgia, Virginia, and Vermont (all states he is behind by double digits) would be necessary for a decent performance as well. If we were talking about Kasich then we could grant more forgiveness for the number of Southern states he has to win, but unlike Kasich, Rubio has proven that he can't compete against Trump any better in the Northeast than in the South. I would say that that doesn't matter if he is doing well in the delegate count, but given the urban-rural divide in these states, I think outright wins would be easier objectives than delegate leads.

[mencken]

LOL at Cruz's quadrupling after the complete market overreaction.