European Elections 2009 (France)

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The first poll just came out for next year's EU elections.

IFOP for Paris-Match. 2004 results in brackets and bolded parties have MEPs

UMP 22% (16.64)
PS 22% (28.90)
MoDem 12% (11.96 for the UDF lists)
Greens 11% (7.41)
NPA (LCR) 8% (2.56 for LO-LCR)
FN 7% (9.81)
PCF 4% (5.88)
LO 4% (2.56 for LO-LCR)
MPF 4% (6.83)
CPNT 3% (2.51)
NC 2%
DLR 1%

Both major parties (UMP and PS) seem are lower than their 2007 presidential vote levels (31 and 25 percents respectively), but the UMP improves (they better improve, for their own sake) on their disastrous 2004 result. Cohn-Bendit's Greenie-ecologists alliance seems to be paying off and 11% is slightly higher than their 1989 result, their best result (10.59%) in EU elections. The far-left (NPA-LO) stands at 12% of the vote, similar to their 2002 levels. The NPA is performing very strongly, as I'd expect them too. I'm a bit surprised at 4% for the LO (I personally think that's way too high for them). The PCF and MPF, if they stay at sub-5 levels, they're at risk of losing all their MEPs, though that's not a certainty. European elections uses stupid constituencies where a list needs to break 5% to be eligible for seats, so the PCF and MPF will probably break 5% in one or more constituencies, and potentially win seats. I doubt the NC will end up running a list, and they'll probably go the safe way of running with the UMP in the way DL did in 1999. Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, the annoying Eurosceptic prick, who wants to create a "surprise" in the elections is probably going to epic fail.

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Can we make anything of this, or are polls for European elections untrustworthy?

The last polls in 2004 (in France, atleast) for TNS-Sofres were pretty good. Spot on the percentages for the PS, UMP, UDF. They overestimated the FN, CPNT, Greenies, MPF a bit but not a whole lot.

But a whole lot can change between now and June. Currently, Sarkozy's popularity has rebounded and is now nearing majority/plurality approval. By June, he could drop down to 38% approval or go into over 50% approval.

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If France still used the old national constituency system, the result of this would be (under the new seating) approximately.

UMP 20 (+3)
PS 20 (-11)
MoDem 11 (+0 on UDF)
Greens 10 (+4)
NPA (LCR) 7 (+7)
FN 6 (-1)

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Some April 2004 polls. First is BVA, second is Ipsos.

PS 28/32
UMP 23/22
UDF 12/12
FN 12/12
Greenies 8/8
MPF 6/4
LO-LCR 5/3
PCF 4/4
CPNT 2/2

And a June poll from BVA

LO-LCR 4
Another Trot party 2
PCF 4
PS 26
Greenies 8.5
CPNT 2.5
UDF 11
UMP 16.5
MPF 7
FN 11

The FN generally polls higher then what it actually get, since many FN voters don't bother to vote (like 55% of people).

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CSA is the French ARG/Compas, and I've said that quite often. Really, any pollster that makes citywide polls in PLM for the municipal elections should be taken with a saltmine, and any pollster that makes runoff citywide polls in PLM locals should be laughed at for eternity.

The new Parti de Gauche (Mélenchon) may have common lists with the PCF.

The comments on this poll over at LeMonde.fr were overrun by hacks for the new PG.

The Nouveau Centre isn't sure to make common lists with the UMP (polls like this will push it to do so...).

I think in the end they'll come round to the UMP lists just to have a chance at seats.

The old CNI tries to have lists everywhere (as for now, it will have in the West and in Ile-de-France).

Lol. The Parti Breton is also running I'd vote for them

Will there be other far left lists, apart from LO and NPA ? The Parti des Travailleurs, maybe ?

The LO and LCR actually ran together in 2004. I don't think they'll do so again this year. The PT (now called the POI, but still a joke party) is irrelevant.

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Will there be other far left lists, apart from LO and NPA ? The Parti des Travailleurs, maybe ?

The LO and LCR actually ran together in 2004. I don't think they'll do so again this year. The PT (now called the POI, but still a joke party) is irrelevant.

Yeah, of course, sorry.
I'm always late with the far-left: OCI, PCI, MPPT, PT, now POI. In France, when we talk about those small political parties, we say they can gather their congress "dans une cabine téléphonique".

Apparently Robert Hue is forming a new political association that some say might transform into a political party. The left is so funny.

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Hue remains a member, but he openly criticized the leadership. Not "reformist" enough.

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Atleast Autain isn't under the impression the PCF actually likes her anymore. The PCF hates her. Like every sane person should, since she's weird.

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She wanted to run for the PCF in 2007, IIRC. That was in the days were she lived in an alternate world of her own where she believed the PCF liked her.

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Could somebody summarize to me all the leftist parties that may or may not exist at the moment? I've lost track.

Left of the PS there is the PG, PCF, NPA (LCR), LO, POI, CAP (smallish party affiliated with the PCF led by Jean-Pierre Brard, MP and former Mayor of Montreuil), and various tiny things. A lot of small associations that aren't parties, too.

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It looks more and more likely that the NC will run common lists with the UMP, in order to save their face. Though the poor devils have a hard time coming up with good arguments on why they're not running.

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What are these constituencies that will be used?

Multi-regional crap constituencies introduced in 2003 (but the Socialists presented a similar project when they were in government).

The seats are allocated via the highest averages method with a 5% threshold.

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The UMP has nominated its top candidates for each of the regions.

Sud-Est: F. Grossetête
Nord-Ouest: D. Riquet / T. Saïfi (2nd)
Île-de-France: M. Barnier / R. Dati (2nd)    
Ouest: C. Béchu / É. Morin (2nd)
Sud-Ouest: D. Baudis
Est: J. Daul
Massif central-Centre: J.-P. Audy

Incumbent MEPs are bolded

They went for some big names in Paris (very big names in this case) and the Sud-Ouest (never say that the Baudis dynasty is dead). An interesting choice in Christophe Béchu, the young UMP President of the Maine-et-Loire general council. Élisabeth Morin, former UMP President of Poitou-Charentes (she was defeated by the drug addict in 2004), is an MEP since Roselyne Bachelot resigned. In the Nord-Ouest, Borloo and the Rads were able to get the Mayor of Valenciennes, Dominique Riquet to be top candidate. Valérie Létard, a NC cabinet member, was offered that post, but she prefers to try her hand at running in the regionals next year. Tokia Saïfi, a former GE member and now a Rad, will need to live with a second spot, after getting the top spot in 2004. In the Sud-Ouest, incumbent MEP Alain Lamassoure will either need to live with a third spot (he was #1 in 2004) or there is some talk of carpetbagging him to IdF. Only Grossetête and Daul led UMP lists in their respective constituencies in 2004.

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Meanwhile, in the world of the Greenies.

Here are the top candidates for Europe Ecologie, a rally of Greenies, antiglobalization people, regionalists (the sell-out UDB and Partit Occitan) and so forth.

Nord-ouest: Hélène Flautre, MEP / François Dufour, antiglobalization thingee leader
Nord Est: Sandrine Bélier, ecologist jurist / Jacques Muller, Green Senator for the Haut-Rhin
Ouest: Yannick Jadot, leader of a ecologist organization / Nicole Kiil-Nielsen, Green candidate in Rennes (2008)
Île de France: Daniel Cohn-Bendit, MEP / Eva Joly, former magistrate
Massif central-Centre: Jean-Paul Besset, close to Nicolas Hulot
Sud-ouest : José Bové, Astérix / Catherine Grèze
Sud-est : Michèle Rivasi, former Green MP and deputy-mayor of Valence / François Alfonsi, Corsican regionalist

According to French wiki, here are some of the possible lists:

UMP, PS (now supported by the LeftRads), MoDem, Greenies, MPF (which will likely run under the Irish Libertas thingee), Nicolas Dupont-Aignan's outfit (supported by small groups with tinpot names and the lol Bonapartists lol), PCF-PG, FN, NPA, LO.
 
But also Alternative libérale  (the classical liberal party run in, ironically, an authoritarian manner); a possibleecologist front (MEI, FEA, and what remains of GE); Paul-Marie Coûteaux, an MEP elected with the MPF in 2004 but leader of a small outfit called the RIF might run alone (rofl. Political suicide); the "We Hate Marine Le Pen" FN dissidents (Carl Lang and Jean-Claude Martinez); an annoying Esperanto thingee; the royalists; a ROFL Maoist party; and finally the LaRouchites, again.
 

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IFOP seems to have forgotten that the French far-left is led by a bunch of individualistic egomaniacs. They published a poll hypothesizing over a common leftie list (Trots, PCF, and the PG). That list, which will never happen in my lifetime probably, would win 14.5%. The PS would win 22.5% and the Greenies only 7%. The article on LeMonde.fr doesn't talk about the numbers for the UMP, MPF, FN, or MoDem.

Edit: It's an internal poll for the PG, which is still delusional enough to think that a common left front is possible. Lol lefties. Take with a grain of salt.

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The numbers for the other parties are UMP 25.5% and MoDem 14%.

Another IFOP poll from early January with a divided left front goes NPA 10%, PCF-PG 5.5%, LO 3.5%. PS would be at 19.5%, UMP at 25.5%, and the MoDem at 14.5%.

On a side note, here is the likely distribution of seats. France has lost 6 MEPs since 2004.

Île-de-France: 13 (-1)
Sud-Est: 13 (=)
Nord-Ouest: 10 (-2)
Sud-Ouest: 10 (=)
Ouest: 9 (-1)
Est: 9 (-1)
Massif central-Centre: 5 (-1)
Outre-Mer: 3 (=)

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IFOP seems to have forgotten that the French far-left is led by a bunch of individualistic egomaniacs. They published a poll hypothesizing over a common leftie list (Trots, PCF, and the PG). That list, which will never happen in my lifetime probably, would win 14.5%. The PS would win 22.5% and the Greenies only 7%. The article on LeMonde.fr doesn't talk about the numbers for the UMP, MPF, FN, or MoDem.

Edit: It's an internal poll for the PG, which is still delusional enough to think that a common left front is possible. Lol lefties. Take with a grain of salt.

That's definitely impossible, though I think the PCF and PG are likely to run a common list. What about the LO and NPA? Will they run together again?

The PCF and PG are definitely running together (I think they already agreed on that). The PG would be committing an early political suicide by running alone.

I don't know what's the deal with the Trots, but I don't think they'll be running together this time. Besancenot seems opposed to any alliance with anybody.

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The MoDem nominated its top candidates today:

Sud-Est: Jean-Luc Bennahmias, former Greenie / Fabienne Faure
Nord-Ouest: Corinne Lepage, leader of CAP21 greenies / Olivier Henno, MoDem mayor of Saint-André-lez-Lille
Île-de-France: Marielle de Sarnez / Bernard Lehideux
Ouest: Sylvie Goulard, leader of Mouvement européen France (a federalist thing) / Bruno Joncour, MoDem mayor of Saint-Brieuc
Sud-Ouest: Robert Rochefort, secretary general of CREDOC, Anne Laperrouze
Est: Jean-François Kahn, former editor of Marianne and writer / Nathalie Griesbeck
Massif central-Centre: Jean-Marie Beaupuy /  Cherifa Adaissi, former local councillor thingee in Blois (rofl)

Incumbent MEPs are bolded.

These will be confirmed in a vote by the membership on Friday.

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NDA's DLR nominated its top candidates recently. Not much use in posting them, as it's a bunch of no names who will get humiliated anyways. Noteworthy, however, that NDA is the number 2 on the DLR list in IdF. The number 2 in the Ouest constituency is a MRC member.

On a totally unrelated topic, a note about the Outre-mer seat, possibly the most inane of the 8 constituencies. It is a three-seater that encompasses all of France's overseas territories, from Reunion to the atoll of Clipperton to the frigid Kerguelen Islands. In 2004, around one-third of the constituency's voters were concentrated in la Reunion, and around 45% of the votes actually cast (needless to say, the turnout in the seat was by far the lowest, at 28%) were from la Reunion. Therefore, la Reunion holds an important role in the constituency. The 2004 results illustrate this well:

Reunion: PCR 38.23, PS 26.02, UMP 23.43, UDF 4.24, Greenies 2.62. t/o 39.35
Martinique: UDF 37.75, PCR 33.30, UMP 7.79, PS 7.66, LO-LCR 7.11, Greenies 2.82. t/o 17.95
Guadeloupe: Greenies 47.47, PCR 18.52, UMP 15.08, PS 6.48, UDF 5.62. t/o 15.49
Guyane: Greenies 31.64, UMP 26.64, PS 12.86, PCR 11.67, UDF 5.6, FN 4.98. t/o 14.31
Mayotte: UMP 32, PCR 21.63, UDF 17.14, PS 15.97, FN 3.91, Greenies 3.27. t/o 26.51
New Caledonia: UMP 33.94, PS 17.22, UDF 14.9, FN 14.79, Greenies 7.88, (PCR 3.23, behind RPF). t/o 25.42
Polynesia: UMP 43.84, PCR 25.42, PS 16.8, UDF 7.52, Greenies 3.10. t/o 39.83
Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon: Greenies 29.50, UMP 21.40, PS 19.23, UDF 11, FN 7.86, PCR 5.93. t/o 18.25
Wallis et Futuna: PS 41.53, UMP 34.22, UDF 15.35, FN 2.39, (PCR 1.74, behind LO-LCR). t/o 43.07
Total: PCR 28.87 (1 MEP, Paul Verges), UMP 25.32 (1 MEP, Margie Sudre), PS 19.05 (1 MEP, Jean-Claude Fruteau), UDF 10.44, Greenies 8.63, FN 2.84. t/o 27.77

All 3 MEPs are from Reunion. In the wake of this inequality, the National Assembly passed a law (I think, though I haven't been able to find the text on their website) dividing the constituency into 3 sub-constituencies (lulz) or 'sections'. The 3 sections are Pacific (Polynesia, New Caledonia etc), Indian (Reunion), Atlantic (the 3 DOMs+SPM). If I read correctly, each party nominates one top candidate for each section (which are single-seaters now, adding up to 3 seats overall). I believe that these sub-constituencies are now pure FPTP seats. I'm not sure if a party, like the various local nats, will be able to run in only one section.

I might be wrong, as I haven't been able to find reliable info on this situation. Needless to say, if anyone has more stuff on this, I'd love to hear it.

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Why are the Greens so strong in the American departments (except Martinique)?

One-election favourite son vote coupled with uber-low turnout (you know what that creates). The Green top candidate was Harry Durimel, a well-known Green politician from Guadeloupe. His number two was a well-known Greenie from Guyane who had led a Greenie list in the March regionals there.

(though there seems to be some real Greenie strength in parts of Guadeloupe and Guyane (mostly in the Amazon) coming out once in a while.)

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Est: J. Daul

Internal battles in the UMP over Daul's choice of the second name on the list, Véronique Mathieu, incumbent MEP and national secretary of the Radical Party. She is a former general secretary of CPNT. A number of important UMP figures from the Est have signed a petition condemning Daul's imposition of Mathieu on his list and asking for a "renewal of political figures". Among the signatories, Jean-Pierre Soisson, an eternal example for morality in politics, but also Henri de Raincourt, leader of the UMP in the Senate and Alain Marty, MP and President of the Moselle fed of the UMP.


On a related note, here is the attendance records of the French MEPs according to L'Express in 2008.

1.
Gérard Onesta (Greenies) 100%
Martine Roure (PS)
Margie Sudre (UMP)
Yannick Vaugrenard (PS)
Christine de Veyrac (UMP)

I may disagree with their politics, but they deserve FF status for well representing their constituents and showing up to work. Kudos to all 5.

6.
Marie-Hélène Descamps (UMP) 98.44%
Janelly Fourtou (centrist)
Jean-Paul Gauzès (UMP)
Françoise Grossetête (UMP)

10.
Bernadette Vergnaud (PS) 96.88%

11.
Catherine Guy-Quint (PS) 95.31%
Carl Lang (FN)

13.
Françoise Castex (PS) 93.75%
Jean-Louis Cottigny (PS)
Véronique Mathieu (UMP)
Pierre Pribetich (PS)

17.
Joseph Daul (UMP) 92.19%
Anne Ferreira (PS)
Ambroise Guellec (UMP)
Roselyne Lefrançois (PS)
Philippe Morillon (MoDem)

22.
Tokia Saïfi (UMP) 90.63%

23.
Jean-Pierre Audy (UMP) 89.06%
Pervenche Bères (PS)
Bernadette Bourzaï (PS)
Henri Weber (PS)

27.
Marie-Hélène Aubert (Greenies) 87.50%
Nicole Fontaine (UMP)
Patrick Louis (MPF)
Elisabeth Morin (UMP)
Catherine Trautmann (PS)

32.
Kader Arif (PS) 85.94%
Anne Laperrouze (MoDem)

34.
Jean-Marie Beaupuy (Modem) 84.38%
Stéphane Le Foll (PS)
Marielle de Sarnez (Modem)
Francis Wurtz (PCF)

38.
Harlem Désir (PS) 82.81%
Brigitte Douay (PS)
Patrick Gaubert (UMP)
Bernard Lehideux (MoDem)
Ari Vatanen (UMP)

43.
Benoit Hamon (PS) 81.25%
Lydia Schénardi (FN)

45.
Claire Gibault (centrist) 79.69%
Nathalie Griesbeck (MoDem)

47.
Guy Bono (PS) 78.13%
Bruno Gollnisch (FN)
Alain Lamassoure (UMP)
Marie Noëlle Lienemann (PS)
Jean-Claude Martinez (FN)

52.
Brigitte Fouré* (NC) 77.14%

53.
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) 76.56%
Fernand Le Rachinel (FN)
Catherine Neris* (PS)
Vincent Peillon (PS)

57.
Jean-Luc Bennahmias (MoDem) 75%
Hélène Flautre (Greenies)
Alain Lipietz (Greenies)

60.
André Laignel (PS) 73.44%
Jacques Toubon (UMP)
Dominique Vlasto (UMP)

63.
Marie-Arlette Carlotti (PS) 71.88%
Béatrice Patrie (PS)

65.
Jacky Hénin (PCF) 70.31%
Marie-Anne Isler Beguin (Verts)
Bernard Poignant (PS)
Pierre Schapira (PS)

69.
Madeleine Jouye de Grand Maison* (RDM)** 65.22%

70.
Catherine Boursier* (PS) 63.64%

71.
Thierry Cornillet (MoDem) 59.38%
Michel Rocard (PS)

73.
Jean-Marie Cavada (centrist) 57.81%
Gilles Savary (PS)

75.
Paul-Marie Coûteaux (RIF) 56.25%

76.
Robert Navarro (PS) 54.69%

77.
Marine Le Pen (FN) 50%
Philippe de Villiers (MPF)

lol at the two last airheads on there.

* MEPs replacing another MEP since 2004.
** RDM: Democratic Rally of Martinique. Madeleine Jouye de Grandmaison replaced Paul Vergès (PCR) in 2007.
*** RIF: Rally for the Independence of France: One-man show by Paul-Marie Coûteaux, who was elected on the MPF list in IdF in 2004.

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Lots of news! CPNT has decided that it will not run independent lists, instead it will run common lists with the MPF. These MPF-CPNT lists are under the banner of the new European political party, Libertas. In 2004, both parties combined won 8.4% (6.67% for the MPF, 1.73% for CPNT).  Frédéric Nihous will lead the MPF-CPNT in the North-West, and Jean Saint-Josse in the South-West.

IFOP has just released a new poll, which is their second poll since November 2008, not counting that poll the PG commissioned for their wet dream. The change is compared to November 2008, but the UMP change is compared to the total UMP+NC polled separately, and the MPF-CPNT change is compared to the the total MPF+CPNT polled separately.

UMP 26% (+2)
PS 23% (+1)
MoDem 14.5% (+2.5)
Greens 7% (-4)
NPA 9% (+1)
FN 6% (-1)
PCF-PG 4% (n/c)
LO 3% (-1)
Libertas (MPF-CPNT) 5% (-2)
DLR 2% (+1)
FNd 0.5% (+0.5) (only polled in NW and SW)

Demographic and political breakdowns are interesting.

Left-wingers and Trots break 46% PS, 17% NPA, 14% Greenie, 9% PCF, 6% LO. The LO breakdown is interesting, but to take with a grain of salt: 50% would vote for an LO list, 21% for the PS, 13% for the Greens, only 5% for the NPA and surprising 8% for Libertas. Not a lot of other interesting stuff there, except that 12% of Greenies vote MoDem.
Royal voters in April 2007 break 69 PS, 10 NPA, 9 Greenies.
Sarkozy voters in April 2007 break 62 UMP, 8 Libertas, 8 MoDem, 6 FN.
OUI voters in 2005 break heavily UMP: 41 UMP, 23 MoDem, 21 PS. NON voters in 2005 are more divided: 24 PS, 16 UMP, 14 NPA, 11 MoDem, 11 Libertas, 8 PCF.

The PS keeps 70% of its 2004 EU voters, with 10% voting NPA, 6% PCF, and 6% MoDem. The Greens keep only 59% of its 2004 voters, bleeding equally to the PS and the MoDem. The UMP keeps a full 84% of its 2004 voters, with 10% of those voting MoDem. Interestingly, only 54% of the UDF voters in 2004 plan on voting MoDem, with 34% going UMP.

Manual Workers (Ouvriers) go 23% PS, 19% NPA, 17% UMP, 16% FN.

On a final side note, the FN lists will be named Listes d'Entente Populaire Et Nationale, abbreviated LEPEN...

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That's no bad for PS, especially with the recent leadership crisis.

Not bad? The PS should be doing much better when the government's approvals are roughly 40% and the President's approval are at, what, 36%?

The official opposition shouldn't be coming second in a mid-term election when the government has bad ratings.

I'm particularly happy of MoDem's good score : I think that Bayrou is for the moment the best opponent to Sarkozy.

lol

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That's no bad for PS, especially with the recent leadership crisis.

Not bad? The PS should be doing much better when the government's approvals are roughly 40% and the President's approval are at, what, 36%?

The official opposition shouldn't be coming second in a mid-term election when the government has bad ratings.

I'm particularly happy of MoDem's good score : I think that Bayrou is for the moment the best opponent to Sarkozy.

lol

To be fair to the PS, the left-wing is highly fragmented by the nature of French politics. The PS may be running behind the UMP, but the combined left and far-left (PS+Verts+NPA+PCF+LO: 46%) is way ahead of the combined right and far-right (UMP+FN+Libertas: 37%). Since France uses a run-off system, those results in the first round of a Presidential election would IMO be highly encouraging to the PS and discouraging to the UMP.

But of course. I wasn't arguing that this isn't a great result for the left, I was just arguing that 23% is quite a poor result for the PS.

We also need to remember that far-left voters are unreliable when it comes to transfers.

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If you add MoDem, you have a 60,5% majority for Sarkozy's opponents. That's a great result.

Going by that same formula, you need to add the FN and maybe even the MPF.

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Ps and MoDem have a lot in common, by opposing Sarkozy economical, immigration and security policies and proposing a more progressive system. Compared to U.S. politics, PS is the far-left wing of the Democratic Party, and MoDem the center-left.

Yes, I know. Your point being?