PA-GOV (Fabrizio Ward/Impact/AARP): Shapiro +3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Shapiro is losing independents by this much, he's toast.

Lol, Politicians still has an R NUT MAP ITS WRONG

I want it to be a 303 but we have Kendra Horn, Charles Booker, Ryan, Crist that can overperform if we win the Secularist Trifecta if we get 51 Seats plus the H it's over for the Rs DC STATEHOOD

We only need 1 more vote SEN and 218 H to get rid of Filibuster for Good cancel Sinema

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yall its early. When negative ads against Fetterman/Mastriano go out, their numbers will go down

Lol do you Doom all the time , the Insurrectionists Commission and abortion is having a damaging effect on the R party users act like it's no Commission it's just inflation

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This one is getting ugly. Shapiro seems to be running a feckless campaign so far based on how well Mastriano is holding up. Nearly a 20 point deficit with independents is impossible to win with.

It would serve people well to actually read the posts in the thread. The total n= is 500 in this poll, meaning a pretty small Indies sample size that we can't gleam much from, especially when it's net nearly 30% different than the Suffolk/USAT poll.

I will say it’s kind of funny that mastriano is outperforming Oz. Talk about something nobody saw coming, lol.

If you look at their favorability numbers it makes perfect sense. I expect the gap to close once Mastriano's more insane stuff gets airtime but all people know about Oz is 20 years of snake oil sales.

This is AARP poll it's not even a PPP poll they are giving Mastriano more the benefit of the doubt and I expect the gap to grow,

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This poll doesn’t seem to make internal sense with the PA electorate. Multiply the 2020 partisan makeup (41% R, 40%D, 19%I) by Shapiro’s vote share with each (11%, 89%, 34%) and you get like 46.5% overall, not 49%. Somehow this sample is over-weighting D’s relative to 2020 when if anything there will be more R’s in the electorate

We won the Blue wall in 2020 and there isn't gonna be more Rs in this Election its gonna be less than 80/75 M votes more like 65/60M users always conflate that just because it's a Midterm Environment it's gonna be more Rs and Indies outnumber everyone is 40% Indies and 28Rs and 28% D's that's our Electorate andWC females not Latins are moving to the right Newsom won the Latino vote in CA Recall

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I remain surprised or skeptical Mastriano is doing better than Oz. Doubt this keeps up as the campaign progresses.

Shapiro is for sure favored, but we can't be satisfied with such an insane dude getting within 3 pts.

What did GA Runoffs tell about polls within the MOE if it's close we win on Provision ballots and PA takes longer than expected to count VBM ballot

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs platform offers no alternative to Ds all they say we can't afford more Socialism and most of the Entitlements we're off of Tax cuts 3T War on Terror 8 T and Stimulus spending 400 in extra Unemployment and the interest, off the Debt we need to continue Entitlements, Section 8 and Climate change there is more work to be done

Don't forgeti Military and the Commission officers get fat checks in Pensions like Air Force