AK-SEN 2022: A Rank Choice

[GALeftist]

Dems need to make it very clear to Murkowski that if she votes for DC statehood and voting rights, they'll back her reelection, otherwise it's 3rd place for her.

In other words, if she becomes a Democrat, the Democrats will back her re-election.

You don't need to become a Dem for supporting a few common sense policies that should be normal in a functioning democracy. That said, it would be a win-win for Dems and Murkowski. As simple as that.

DC statehood is not "common sense", nor is HR1. Both of them are unconstitutional. Their purpose is to lock in Democratic electoral and legislative majorities permanently. If any Republican votes for them, they should just switch parties and stop the charade.

Unconstitutional is when I don't like something, and the less I like it, the more unconstitutional it is

[GALeftist]

Any ideas how RCV will be affected now that a Dem is in?

The stronger the Democratic candidate, the more likely Murkowski loses.
Murkowski likely wins if she makes the last round, however her real trouble is getting into the last round.
Tshibaka will win the vast majority of Republicans according to polling (which will likely become even more true once Trump starts campaigning for her). Murkowski is dependent on independent AND significant democrat support to win, if a Democrat takes up most Democrats, Murkowski essentially has no support base and will be eliminated in the 2nd to last round.
While Murkowski is moderate, as can be seen in 2020 with Collins, that won't stop democrats from campaigning hard against her, and we all know democrats would rather vote for an actual democrat over a moderate Republican. RCV does raise Murk's chances, but people overestimate how much it will help her, you still need to be the first choice of a lot of people to win.
If Elvi-Gray Jackson get's more first-round votes than Murkowski (who is guaranteed to get less first-place votes than Tshibaka), she's done for.

One thing I will say that is an important difference between Maine 2020 and Alaska 2022 is that democrats thought they could win in Maine, the polls had Gideon leading. No democrat expects to be able to ousts Murkowski, so I imagine a lot of democrats will rank her high up seeing her as the lesser of two evils compared to Tshibaka. If I was an Alaska voter I’d rank Murkowski first, as she’s not near what I want, but (like my Senator Tim Scott) she is the best us democrats can get out of the state.

Almost no voters do tactical voting.

Citation desperately needed here.

[GALeftist]

Safe Murkowski --> Titanium Murkowski