Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

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It's rather incongruous that New Zealand is the Dixville Notch of Brazil.

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https://twitter.com/A_FleckBrandao/status/1576466861600149504?t=A3X0bBSTHTphWObh...

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Datafolha is projecting a runoff between the two candidates.
https://twitter.com/tracklist/status/1576709903867338752?t=dppT8r9LTZK7gxZaFkLzR...

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What's the cause of this shift away from class-based voting? Are there cultural or demographic vectors that have become more salient, like in the rich world?

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What's the over/under that, in the time where Bolsonaro is leading in the vote count, he will emulate you-know-whom and claim he won? I know it won't take days for the result to emerge, but any period where he could muddy the waters is risky.

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Imagine if there was a needle of doom like in the New York Times.

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https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1586863552140398595

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Congrats from other Latin American leaders coming thick and fast:
https://twitter.com/lopezobrador_/status/1586854976336187395

https://twitter.com/gabrielboric/status/1586854973156966401

https://twitter.com/petrogustavo/status/1586846806171860993

https://twitter.com/alferdez/status/1586855601518399492

Just for what it's worth:
https://twitter.com/DiazCanelB/status/1586856172426039301

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More on the Biden Administration's quiet efforts to pressure the Brazilian army not to indulge in anti-democratic fantasies

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I think this has been answered in the past, but why is Brasília a stronghold of the right? Comparable cities like Ottawa, Washington, and Canberra are stronghold of left-of-centre establishment parties.

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Although I think part of the comparison in the original post was in that Brasilia was a purpose chosen/built capital city. As in they none of them are the largest cities of principle economic centres of their respective countries. Which in turn means that they are all particularly dominated by civil servants and public sector workers in a way that other capital cities aren't. Which you would sort of instinctively think would make them particularly receptive to the left.

The only European capitals that might be comparable would be Bern; and potentially The Hague but for the fact it isn't technically the capital (and St Peterbsurg but for the fact it actually stopped being the capital quite along time ago. And even if Bern has some superficial similarities, it is still a much older city and political centre and not really comparable.

Plenty of examples in Africa (eg Yamoussoukro) or Asia (eg Naypyidaw or Isalamabad) that tend to suffer the fact of not being democracies meaning there isn't really much to say about their voting habits.

Yep, that was my intended comparison. The other purpose-built capital cities are, more exactly, strongholds of pro-establishment parties that support a robust state. While Washington DC itself might be a Democratic stronghold, Loudoun County might vote Republican if the choice was between Mitt Romney and AOC. To see Bolsonaro perform so well in Brasilia seems as incongruous as Trump winning DC, if we were ignorant about the local political landscape.

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Given the closeness of the election, is it fair to say in the aftermath that Lula was the only candidate that could have beaten Bolsonaro? Especially interested in takes from Brazilian posters.

I'm sure only Lula could've done this. Bolsonaro tried to buy the poorest' vote by giving them free money. Most of them voted for Lula anyway because they trust him. Wouldn't have happened to any other candidate. Bolsonaro would have managed to buy the election for him for sure, IMHO. Also, everyone has known Lula since they were born and even then Bolsonaro and his accomplics managed to make many Brazilians believe Lula was a dangerous communist that would take your home and make your family eat their dogs and cats. Lula couldn't be destroyed by a fake news campaign because they already tried to destroy him in multiple ways before, but any other would have perished. 50.8% may not look that impressive, but it is it you consider it all. You only get a Lula once in a century.

Given that Lula had already been president for eight years and presided over an economic boom, how could the "Lula is a communist like Hugo Chavez" attack have gained any resonance at all?

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New York Times: What can US democracy learn from Brazil?

I think the biggest reason why Brazil's political and economic elite immediately shut down Bolsonaro's attempt at doing a January 6 was that they all had personal experiences of the dictatorship.

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What was responsible for this shift that is particular to Rio, though? If Bolsonaro won re-election, this local shift would have been decisive.

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Bolsonaro has left the country and is in Florida now. It’s finally over, even if his term only really ends January 1st.

This moment was so anticipated, it’s kinda weird how it feels like an afterthought now.

Did he flee the country? Or is he just on vacation?

According to the media, his lawyers advised him to leave the country while he is still president. Presidents can be trialed only by the Supreme Court. An ordinary citizen (like he will be when he becomes a former president) can be sued by any local court.

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This is really pathetic. His last lunch as president was at a KFC in Orlando.

https://twitter.com/Rkrahenbuhl/status/1609291532661563392?t=wegUha6pl1-3xdO3SZg...

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It’s been revealed that the police found a draft order suspending the results of the election in Anderson Torres’s home when they arrested him two days ago.

Ah, great, all the way down to the fake electors. I wonder when we'll hear of the phone call where Bolsonaro demands exactly 2,139,646 votes to be found.