Like-a-Fishhook Election Tracking

[Associate Justice PiT]

I think you overestimate the JCPs love for CK, remember his defection is the reason they lost the Pacific senate seat for the first time I can remember.

He's already landed Alcon's vote and the endorsement of the JCP leader:

yay

cultureking4senate

Despite the vote for Torie, and what I would consider a voting record which is probably more centrist than the JCP as a whole; all the indications, so far, are that the JCP will give him their full support.

     CultureKing will do just fine with the JCP. If they shaft him, they'll have nobody in the Senate.

[Associate Justice PiT]

HappyWarrior seems neither hated nor loved by the Atlasian electorate. He has received no #1 or #2 votes, but similarly has received few strongly negative preferences. A majority of his highest preferences have so far come from DWTL supporters, are are unlikely to have the coattails to help HW get anywhere this time out.

Another question another PR:
If the results hold and Xahar and myself are the first two elected, with HappyWarrior garnering 5 3rd prefs so far (and presumably more given the amount of RPPs left to vote) can that push him over the top?

Unlikely. The coattails aren't strong enough.

     The way PR-STV is set up, you're not going to have anyone be pulled up by coattails unless the margin for them to reach the quota is razor-thin or the person they get coattails from wins first preferences by a vast margin.

[Associate Justice PiT]

HappyWarrior seems neither hated nor loved by the Atlasian electorate. He has received no #1 or #2 votes, but similarly has received few strongly negative preferences. A majority of his highest preferences have so far come from DWTL supporters, are are unlikely to have the coattails to help HW get anywhere this time out.

Another question another PR:
If the results hold and Xahar and myself are the first two elected, with HappyWarrior garnering 5 3rd prefs so far (and presumably more given the amount of RPPs left to vote) can that push him over the top?

Unlikely. The coattails aren't strong enough.

     The way PR-STV is set up, you're not going to have anyone be pulled up by coattails unless the margin for them to reach the quota is razor-thin or the person they get coattails from wins first preferences by a vast margin.

True, but they do nevertheless exist.

     I never said they didn't. I said that they are not really significant, barring extraordinary circumstances.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I need to focus on getting more non right-wing preferences.

     What's wrong with the right-wing?

[Associate Justice PiT]

I need to focus on getting more non right-wing preferences.

     What's wrong with the right-wing?

You're not big enough.

     You have plenty of SDP supporters in addition to the RPP second preferences.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Wow, Jesus has listed Xahar on the Pacific ballot as "Chode"

This is actually Pacific law if I'm not mistaken.

And the Southeast is accusing of having stupid laws

Although this one I must say is quite humorous. 

     What's the law? Anyone who dares to challenge Governor bgwah shall be listed as "Chode" on the ballot?

[Associate Justice PiT]

Wow, Jesus has listed Xahar on the Pacific ballot as "Chode"

This is actually Pacific law if I'm not mistaken.

And the Southeast is accusing of having stupid laws

Although this one I must say is quite humorous. 

     What's the law? Anyone who dares to challenge Governor bgwah shall be listed as "Chode" on the ballot?

no, just Xahar, due to his talent for getting on the JCP's nerves.

     Nice.

     I noticed that DWTL continues to be extremely divisive.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Bgwah, you are a mayor Daley machine boss type, with arguably some questionable ethics, but you make the trains run on time, in your little fiefdom, more than some other ones, and I would have voted for you anyway. The Pacific region is quite the political snake pit. Cheers.

     Welcome to the one-party state. This is what the Southeast hopefully will be in a few months.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I'd like an update. Even if the update isn't totally up-to-date, it would be nice to see figures for where the election stands.

[Associate Justice PiT]

How is a vote without a first preference counted?

It's a judgment call for the SoFA. If he can make a 'reasonable determination' of the intent of the voter, then he should count the vote in that manner.

Marginal correction: It's a judgment call for the SoFA, with the option of going to court available no matter how he rules (unless it makes no difference to the final list of electees, I suppose).

He has ruled the ballot invalid. I will publish, both right after the next regular update, and after the polls close (but not at any additional update points in between) a count that includes her vote, treating her second pref. as first etc. This is just for informational value, and should not be read as disapproval or approval of the SoFA's decision.

     I assume Earl's decision would be upheld anyway, given the precedent of Akno21 v. Fritz.

[Associate Justice PiT]

How is a vote without a first preference counted?

It's a judgment call for the SoFA. If he can make a 'reasonable determination' of the intent of the voter, then he should count the vote in that manner.

Marginal correction: It's a judgment call for the SoFA, with the option of going to court available no matter how he rules (unless it makes no difference to the final list of electees, I suppose).

He has ruled the ballot invalid. I will publish, both right after the next regular update, and after the polls close (but not at any additional update points in between) a count that includes her vote, treating her second pref. as first etc. This is just for informational value, and should not be read as disapproval or approval of the SoFA's decision.

     I assume Earl's decision would be upheld anyway, given the precedent of Akno21 v. Fritz.

With the SC, you never know.

Anyways, *currently* counting her vote as a vote for Al would make no difference to the progress of the count, but all the difference for the final list of electees, putting Al ahead of Culture King. Treat this as the promised "count".

     You're right. Her intent would be much more discernible than Mike Assad's was. It might make an interesting case.

[Associate Justice PiT]

How is a vote without a first preference counted?

It's a judgment call for the SoFA. If he can make a 'reasonable determination' of the intent of the voter, then he should count the vote in that manner.

Marginal correction: It's a judgment call for the SoFA, with the option of going to court available no matter how he rules (unless it makes no difference to the final list of electees, I suppose).

He has ruled the ballot invalid. I will publish, both right after the next regular update, and after the polls close (but not at any additional update points in between) a count that includes her vote, treating her second pref. as first etc. This is just for informational value, and should not be read as disapproval or approval of the SoFA's decision.

     I assume Earl's decision would be upheld anyway, given the precedent of Akno21 v. Fritz.

With the SC, you never know.

Anyways, *currently* counting her vote as a vote for Al would make no difference to the progress of the count, but all the difference for the final list of electees, putting Al ahead of Culture King. Treat this as the promised "count".

     You're right. Her intent would be much more discernible than Mike Assad's was. It might make an interesting case.

Of course, the interpretation that she meant to vote for Jas (whom she lists 10th) also makes a certain amount of sense... *need to check if that changes anything*

EDIT: While it jerks around the order of elimination (Andrew goes before Jas), her vote still travels to Al and all votes still travel just as they do right now. (Atm - a situation is conceivable where that's not the case), so right now both most logical interpretations lead to the same result, while throwing the ballot out leads to another. Interesting complication there...

At least noone can accuse the SoFA of a partisan ruling here. After all, he voted for Al.

     Yeah, I saw the Assad quote in Peter's sig. When I initially cited the precedent of the case, I was referring to Earl saying it probably would not be legal for him to ask her what her intent was, since Assad's vote was thrown out, even though he testified to his intent. The cases for alternate interpretations of her intent are interesting as well, though.

[Associate Justice PiT]

We have received communications from Pedant's Corner. We believe the amendations to our count offered from there to be correct. The count has been amended accordingly.

     You mean they will count her vote?

[Associate Justice PiT]

We have received communications from Pedant's Corner. We believe the amendations to our count offered from there to be correct. The count has been amended accordingly.

     You mean they will count her vote?

No, I wasn't referring to the DoFA.
Jas pointed out to me that MAS has two third pref.s, and that I gave Al a second pref. too few.

The DoFA has ruled, and I do not expect them to change their ruling.

     I would sue, except as I mentioned earlier, I strongly doubt anything would change. The precedent of the Mike Assad quote is too powerful.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I picked up a surprise 1st preference for Spade and a surprisingly high 3rd from MAS and ILV.  I don't see many more votes for me (Duke is really the only sure thing), but I think I can squeak this out anyway.

     There's also the 2nd preference from Ben. You shouldn't have too much trouble getting elected.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I picked up a surprise 1st preference for Spade and a surprisingly high 3rd from MAS and ILV.  I don't see many more votes for me (Duke is really the only sure thing), but I think I can squeak this out anyway.

     There's also the 2nd preference from Ben. You shouldn't have too much trouble getting elected.

unfortunately, many of Down's supporters are too new to know why he shouldn't be in the Senate.

     Because Paul, SPC, Inks, & Sam are such neophytes.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I picked up a surprise 1st preference for Spade and a surprisingly high 3rd from MAS and ILV.  I don't see many more votes for me (Duke is really the only sure thing), but I think I can squeak this out anyway.

     There's also the 2nd preference from Ben. You shouldn't have too much trouble getting elected.

unfortunately, many of Down's supporters are too new to know why he shouldn't be in the Senate.

     Because Paul, SPC, Inks, & Sam are such neophytes.

My ticket is primarily an anti-NLC ticket, with picking DWTL as #1 just to annoy people.

     We're still intensely grateful. A vote is a vote after all.

I picked up a surprise 1st preference for Spade and a surprisingly high 3rd from MAS and ILV.  I don't see many more votes for me (Duke is really the only sure thing), but I think I can squeak this out anyway.

     There's also the 2nd preference from Ben. You shouldn't have too much trouble getting elected.

unfortunately, many of Down's supporters are too new to know why he shouldn't be in the Senate.

     Because Paul, SPC, Inks, & Sam are such neophytes.

I said "Many" not "All"

     Yeah, I just felt like being facetious. That aside, would you rather have had me run under the RPP banner?

[Associate Justice PiT]

I picked up a surprise 1st preference for Spade and a surprisingly high 3rd from MAS and ILV.  I don't see many more votes for me (Duke is really the only sure thing), but I think I can squeak this out anyway.

     There's also the 2nd preference from Ben. You shouldn't have too much trouble getting elected.

unfortunately, many of Down's supporters are too new to know why he shouldn't be in the Senate.

     Because Paul, SPC, Inks, & Sam are such neophytes.

My ticket is primarily an anti-NLC ticket, with picking DWTL as #1 just to annoy people.

     We're still intensely grateful. A vote is a vote after all.

I picked up a surprise 1st preference for Spade and a surprisingly high 3rd from MAS and ILV.  I don't see many more votes for me (Duke is really the only sure thing), but I think I can squeak this out anyway.

     There's also the 2nd preference from Ben. You shouldn't have too much trouble getting elected.

unfortunately, many of Down's supporters are too new to know why he shouldn't be in the Senate.

     Because Paul, SPC, Inks, & Sam are such neophytes.

I said "Many" not "All"

     Yeah, I just felt like being facetious. That aside, would you rather have had me run under the RPP banner?

depends. If Hugo Chavez ran against Hitler for president who would you vote for?

     Flee to Canada. If that's not an option, don't vote/write-in George Washington/turn in unmarked ballot.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I picked up a surprise 1st preference for Spade and a surprisingly high 3rd from MAS and ILV.  I don't see many more votes for me (Duke is really the only sure thing), but I think I can squeak this out anyway.

     There's also the 2nd preference from Ben. You shouldn't have too much trouble getting elected.

unfortunately, many of Down's supporters are too new to know why he shouldn't be in the Senate.

     Because Paul, SPC, Inks, & Sam are such neophytes.

My ticket is primarily an anti-NLC ticket, with picking DWTL as #1 just to annoy people.

     We're still intensely grateful. A vote is a vote after all.

I picked up a surprise 1st preference for Spade and a surprisingly high 3rd from MAS and ILV.  I don't see many more votes for me (Duke is really the only sure thing), but I think I can squeak this out anyway.

     There's also the 2nd preference from Ben. You shouldn't have too much trouble getting elected.

unfortunately, many of Down's supporters are too new to know why he shouldn't be in the Senate.

     Because Paul, SPC, Inks, & Sam are such neophytes.

I said "Many" not "All"

     Yeah, I just felt like being facetious. That aside, would you rather have had me run under the RPP banner?

depends. If Hugo Chavez ran against Hitler for president who would you vote for?

     Flee to Canada. If that's not an option, don't vote/write-in George Washington/turn in unmarked ballot.

As long as you didn't say Hitler like Down did, you're okay to run on the RPP ticket in my book.

     I'll keep that in mind when I run for office in the future.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I regret not preferencing Sensei higher, I forgot about his vehement support of regional senate seats.  Any RPP members yet to vote (idk if there are any) vote him high

     Wish I had known about that. I would have preferenced him much higher.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Near-certain that means Dwdl, Sensei, Al, Xahar and Jas.

     If so, this is a huge comeback for Jas, a big victory for the RPP & SDP, & a big defeat for the JCP & NLC.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Near-certain that means Dwdl, Sensei, Al, Xahar and Jas.

     If so, this is a huge comeback for Jas, a big victory for the RPP & SDP, & a big defeat for the JCP & NLC.

Yup. I'll definitely welcome Jas's return to the Senate.

     Nice to see though that Mr. Moderate was glad to throw his PPT under the bus.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Near-certain that means Dwdl, Sensei, Al, Xahar and Jas.

     If so, this is a huge comeback for Jas, a big victory for the RPP & SDP, & a big defeat for the JCP & NLC.

Yup. I'll definitely welcome Jas's return to the Senate.

     Nice to see though that Mr. Moderate was glad to throw his PPT under the bus.

Well, I don't suppose you remember the Jas/Moderate ticket.

     That makes a lot of sense in that case. Though I wonder who the new PPT will be now.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     By my count, here's the new partisan breakdown (going off of Jas's list of winners):

NLC 3 (-2)
RPP 2 (+1)
SDP 2 (+1)
Indies 2 (+1)
JCP 1 (0)

     Huge loss for the NLC in this election.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I picked up a surprise 1st preference for Spade and a surprisingly high 3rd from MAS and ILV.  I don't see many more votes for me (Duke is really the only sure thing), but I think I can squeak this out anyway.

"Surprisingly"?  Did you read the post creating my current political party at all?

Well I did read the one about you saying the SSP had nothing to do with yours

Yes; that was rather like a socialist party overreacting to the creation of a communist party because it does not wish to be lumped in with it Our views on federalism are almost entirely the same, except that you supported succession.

     That's alright. You're welcome to affiliate with the RPP so we can pool our resources to achieve our common goal.