Canadian Election 2019

[DC Al Fine]

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Does Scheer speech about same sex marriages in 2005 had impact on latest CBC forecasts?

Not yet. Canadians don't pay much attention to politics in the summer. I see exactly one poll since the Liberals attacked him on SSM and it shows no change. That's not to say it won't have an effect, but I wouldn't expect to see it until September.

Might be the abortion position that hurts more. Conservative Party usually have to deal with fears of social conservative agenda.

Scheer is in an awkward spot on that front. The religious right is small and unpopular enough that he needs to attract and reassure social liberals to win, but a big enough part of his coalition that he can't afford to alienate them entirely. The People's Party further complicates things, as they present a plausible alternative to the Tories, unlike the Harper era, when no alternative existed. It's a tough needle to thread.

[DC Al Fine]

NDP at 7% in Quebec. Oof. That won't be good for the Tories or Bloc either. Might save the Liberal's bacon too, depending on the final national result.

[DC Al Fine]

New Vancouver Granville poll

JWR: 37%
Lib: 27%
Con: 15%
Green: 12%
NDP: 7%

[DC Al Fine]

Anyway, I think Angus will lose his seat to the Liberal candidate (same goes for Hughes in AMK).

It is possible.  What seats do you think they will hold?

While the NDP have close to zero safe seats, I think many incumbents will hold on but it's tough to say which ones. Some guesses for NDP holds I'm confident in:

Vancouver East (probably their safest seat right now)
Skeena-Bulkley Valley
Timmins-James Bay (not exactly "safe", but close to it)
Windsor-Tecumseh

Again, I think they will hold a lot more than those seats, I'm just not sure which ones.

[DC Al Fine]

Dissolution tomorrow.

Which of the big parties is likely to end up with the most seats?

Probably the Liberals.

[DC Al Fine]

It's tough to say because there's so much polling variation in the non-Liberal left. If the NDP reverses their bleeding to the Greens, the Liberals will have a much harder time getting their majority than if the Greens and NDP both get 10%.

My initial guess: Tories win the popular vote by a hair, but lose the seat count by 15 or so to the Liberals, who form a minority government.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/robertfife/status/1171612062763683840

Not a great day 0 story for Trudeau.

[DC Al Fine]

I saw the Bloc's campaign kickoff speech. The backdrop was this new navy/gold colour scheme. Weird.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/TondaMacC/status/1172000459558535168

[DC Al Fine]

Does anyone else get a bunch of Trump ads on the 338 site?

Anyway, my early Prediction:

LIB- 161
CON- 147
NDP-13
Other- 17

Nope. Trump probably isn't paying for Canadian IP addresses to see his ads. What's your breakdown for Other?

Looks like the Cons are running a Christian conservative pro-life activist in York Centre.  Pretty sure Michael Levitt will hang on.  Knocks it off at the top of "most likely TO seats to go Conservative" list (I think it's Scarborough-Agincourt).

https://twitter.com/Carolyn_Bennett/status/1172121813977042946

Ya, that won't really work in TO... knock off a few points for the CPC. Ya, Scarborough-Agincourt the CPC pulled in 40% in the 2017 by-election. You then have to look at Etobicoke Centre and Don Valley North and Don Valley West as the next top targets I think  (probably less so Don Valley West, even though it is wealthier, I Think Oliphant is a more high profile incumbent)

What's even more boneheaded is that York Centre's recent Conservative trending has been Jewish-based; and for that particular demo, these kinds of socon antics are beside the point.

York Centre was a contested nomination, which complicates things for the Tories. The pro-life movement, while small and unpopular with the media, is a reasonably large portion of the Tories' voter and donor base, as well as a large source for foot soldiers in campaigns, such that if a significant portion of them left, it would be devastating to Scheer's candidacy. They also seem to be getting increasingly cranky since late in Harper's leadership about how the party is treating them, and my contacts have noticed some grumbling that they might be better off with the PPC.

With that in mind, Scheer is stuck between a rock and a hard place. It's not like the Scheer handpicked this woman for York Centre, and not signing a pro-life nomination winner's nomination papers is the sort of thing that might get socons to revolt, so I'm not sure I'd call it boneheaded.

[DC Al Fine]

Also, Leaders debate, my take:

Scheer -> calm, but bland and boringly so. Spoke well and hit his points, but got caught a numbers of times in fights he just couldn't handle and effectively said he'd prioritize cuts over balanced budgets (not a big surprise but still). Didn't "win" or gain anything, but also didn't lose anything.

May -> loaded with info, a fountain of facts, but she came across and condescending at times and arrogant others. But also very knowledgeable and spoke clearly to points. But outright lied when caught by Singh around recent revelations about the Greens (abortion, sovereignty, propping CPC up, she said "that's a lie", but they aren't). Solid performance, but not a win. 

Singh -> cool and calm, spoke to people and about people, the most personable. But should have delved deeper into policies, I felt he was lacking on some detail. Went right after Scheer and Trudeau, even May, but nailed Scheer with a few jabs he was not expecting (around Trump in particular). Moderators were all united here, this was Singh's to claim as a win, and performed better then expected.

Trudeau -> didn't even show, so be default he was defined by how everyone else painted him, honestly the clear loser here. But, he does have one advantage, he just saw a bit of his competition and likely took notes.

Of Note, arguably in 2015 the Macleans debate was where Trudeau's performance helped turn the momentum towards him. I can see some of that going to both Singh and Scheer even.

Just to add, the main takeaway for those who didn't watch the debate are those photos of the empty podium where Trudeau was supposed to be, and the one of May pretending to shake MIA Trudeau's hand. Could help May and hurt Trudeau.

[DC Al Fine]

With that in mind, Scheer is stuck between a rock and a hard place. It's not like the Scheer handpicked this woman for York Centre, and not signing a pro-life nomination winner's nomination papers is the sort of thing that might get socons to revolt, so I'm not sure I'd call it boneheaded.

Except for the kind of riding it is, and the kind of Conservative base (or at least, *voting* base) the riding has.

Certainly you're right at the riding level. I'm just saying if a pro-life candidate is fired in riding A, it might cause pro-lifers in ridings B, C, and D to consider going elsewhere.

[DC Al Fine]

Green's are releasing their platform today. Obviously they aren't implementing it in toto, but it might give a clue about what the price of their support will be in a minority parliament.

[DC Al Fine]

Bernier will be in the official debates.

Wonder what seat(s) besides Beauce they thought the PPC had a reasonable chance of winning.

[DC Al Fine]

It occurs to me that the Bloc will be in the English debate. How is Blanchet's English compared to Duceppe's?

[DC Al Fine]

Bernier will be in the official debates.

Wonder what seat(s) besides Beauce they thought the PPC had a reasonable chance of winning.

No idea, but even Beauce I doubt they will win.

As per impact, could hurt the Tories but most on right hate Trudeau with a passion and will vote for whomever is most likely to defeat him so impact at most minor.  Also it will make Scheer look moderate when compared to Bernier although I suspect by that point in the campaign opinions will be pretty baked in.  French debate probably more likely to have impact as Quebec is known for large late swings whereas other provinces much less so.

I wrote the report to the Debate commission on behalf of EKOS, providing our two cents based on the polling we did for them. All the data is on their site, but the top two ridings were Nipissing-Timiskaming and Etobicoke North.

Amusing that Andrew Scheer is blasting us as a "Liberal" polling firm, but I certainly am no Liberal!

Not surprised about Etobicoke North, but why Nipissing-Timiskaming?  Is the PPC candidate some well known person there?

They're running a city councilor in that riding.

[DC Al Fine]

Maxime Bernier appears to have finally left Beauce, and will be touring around Anglo New Brunswick the next few days. Trying to go after the People's Alliance vote presumably.

[DC Al Fine]

Maxime Bernier appears to have finally left Beauce, and will be touring around Anglo New Brunswick the next few days. Trying to go after the People's Alliance vote presumably.

Outside of thefour ridings they're targeting, New Brunswick is the best region for polling, probably due to the association/confusion with the PA. 

Beauce, Etobicoke North, Nipissing... what's the fourth one?

[DC Al Fine]

Some quick thoughts:

1) The blackface incident isn't fatal but... Trudeau has built a very woke, politically correct brand. It's a huge part of who he is as a politician. This incident will hurt.

2) Liberal attacks on the Tories come in two forms; corporate sellout, and retrograde bigot. SNC Lavalin rendered the former attack ineffective, and blackface Trudeau will likely do the same to the latter.

3) Jagmeet Singh and the floundering NDP just got a YUGE opportunity to recover lost support with so-called 'promiscuous progressives'.

[DC Al Fine]

From the apology

"I've always been more enthusiastic about costumes than is sometimes appropriate..."

Oh my

[DC Al Fine]

Global News has video of a third blackface incident.

[DC Al Fine]

Also, for Jagmeet's response, while I appreciate it, I don't think it works well politically.  He's kind of acting like the average joe is a leftist woke twitter/Tumbler SJW, and will feel a sense of guilt/empathy.  The problem is that people don't vote based on guilt.

I don't agree with that summary; Jagmeet's response was heartfelt and personal and not about Trudeau. I watching and you could see his eye, he was hurt and emotional and almost cried at one point. This was legitimately an honest response. It was not about guilt, it was about reaching out to those who have been hurt by hate and belittling and being bullied and disrespected. It was about not giving in to the hurt and depression and the pain that someone's bad joke caused.
I'm not a POC, but I am a member of the LGBT who is also a white guy, and I was able to identify personally with his statement.

The NDP have been having a great first week, this is unfortunately a terrible situation that might help the NDP with SJW voters particularly in areas they are targeting like Toronto/Vancouver and DT/urban seats like Winnipeg Centre, Edmonton-Strathcona (to hold it) and Edmonton Centre, Ottawa Centre, Halifax.   

I felt Singh was quite effective, far more than Scheer.

That said, both Scheer and Singh seemed to do a reasonable job in their responses at appealing to voters at their respective ends of the Liberal party. That is, Singh did a good job at appealing to Orange Liberals with his heartfelt appeals, while Scheer's approach focused on Trudeau's poor judgment and incompetence, appealing to Blue Liberals.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm really proud of Jagmeet's response.  It definitely has the ability to turn around the campaign. It's unfortunate that this has to be reason for it.

Actually, I found the statement rather overwrought. Canada is, without question, the most tolerant, welcoming, and integrating place on earth. Canadians take a lot of pride in that fact, and a single truly stupid and insensitive photo cannot undo it. To pretend that a photo like this somehow makes Canada less tolerant is just absurd. And to pretend that Trudeau is like people who go around beating minorities up is even more absurd.

If that's what you got out of his response, there is something wrong with your comprehension skills.

And no, Canada is not "the most tolerant, welcoming and integrating place on earth". What a ridiculous thing to say.

No, what I got out of Singh's response is that he really hopes to capitalize on this politically. And what I get out of your response is that you really hope that Singh capitalizes on it politically.

But I would love to hear which countrirs are more tolerant, better integrated, more welcoming of migrants, and have more politically correct cultural norms. Just because Singh (and you, apparently) know a racist dude doesn't make Canada any less liberal and open.

Uhh, I don't "know a racist dude". I'm a professional pollster who has done tonnes of polling on this subject. We have a lot of racism in this country. I'm not going to name "less racist" countries and I explained why in an earlier post. I'm not so arrogant to believe I can pontificate on how racist other countries are.

There is a lot of racism everywhere. It doesn't mean that Canada isn't a comparably tolerant and less racist place (except for Quebec, of course).It appears that your problem with what I'm saying isn't even that it is false, but that I dare to speak so well of Canada when I'm not even Canadian. Sorry not sorry. Canada is a marvelously accepting place and a few Truseau blackface pictures cannot possibly negate that fact. Singh's lament isn't credible because it runs contrary to the experience of an open and welcoming Canada experienced by Canadians themselves--not SJW pollsters, not opportunistic NDP leaders, but Canadians of all stripes and colors. If Trudeau tumbles from this it won't be because people suddenly feel collective guilt over Trudeau's costume fetish. It won't be because they're moved to self laceration by Singh's childhood pain. It will be because they're tired of Justin's drama and just want to be left alone to enjoy the Canada that perhaps you and Singh cannot.

Please correct more misconceptions we have about our country random foreigner.

[DC Al Fine]

Maybe the canadian media is diffrent, but how did 3(maybe more) documentations of black face fall under the radar for so long?

At least in the case of the 2001 yearbook photo, it seems like a collective brainfart. No one thought to look at the yearbooks of a teacher candidate. It's not just media, even opposition research was slow to get this. You can be sure that if the Harper Conservatives had this back in 2015, they would have leaked it then.

[DC Al Fine]

Maybe the canadian media is diffrent, but how did 3(maybe more) documentations of black face fall under the radar for so long?

At least in the case of the 2001 yearbook photo, it seems like a collective brainfart. No one thought to look at the yearbooks of a teacher candidate. It's not just media, even opposition research was slow to get this. You can be sure that if the Harper Conservatives had this back in 2015, they would have leaked it then.

That would've risked handing the election to the NDP though. 2015 was a 'change' election, and progressive voters were going to back whichever party had the best change to kick the Tories out.

I agree, but that wasn't the Tory interest at the time.... It's like a boxer losing in the final rounds. You have to go for the KO since that's the only way to win, even if that risks getting you KO'd. If I'm down 5 with a week until Election Day like Harper was, my opponent has the momentum, and I have a bomb like that, I'm letting it fly, risk of an NDP win be damned.