State House Updates, Retirement Edition 2.0:
District 8:
Republican Tedd Nesbit is resigning from this deeply red northwestern PA district to take a judicial seat he won this November. The seat being open might knock down the margins a bit in 2020, but hell would freeze over before this district flips. Veronica Cardello, a local realtor and Republican, has announced that she will run for this seat.
http://www.butlereagle.com/article/20191202/NEWS12/712029884
Strong R --> Strong R
District 58:
Another Republican resigning to take a position as a judge, Justin Walsh's exit has one silver lining for the state GOP, as he was dogged by multiple criminal convictions, yet also managed to not only flip this district in 2016, but actually improve upon those numbers in 2018. The Republican who runs to fill this seat should benefit from the region's conservative trend, but perhaps not as much as Walsh would have as an incumbent. Two Democrats have already announced their intention to contest this seat; an Army veteran and a local small business owner.
https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/yough-school-board-president-running-for-state-rep/
Likely R --> Lean R
District 131:
Republican Justin Simmons, who represented this seat since 2010, has announced that he will be retiring at the end of his term. Straddling a trio of the north-end Philly burb counties, this district is an even more enticing target for Dems now that it's an open seat. Simmons had held the district for the GOP in several close elections in the past, but will the state Republicans be able to hang on to the district in 2020? We'll have to see.
https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pennsylvania-house-openings-2020-election-20191220-u3gpfv7llvgbfa2uutqep3qxca-story.html
Tilt R --> Tossup
District 138:
Republican Marcia Hahn is retiring at the end of her term in this relatively Republican Northampton County district. This district could potentially become competitive, but isn't likely to unless a lot of things go right for the eventual Democratic nominee.
https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pennsylvania-house-openings-2020-election-20191220-u3gpfv7llvgbfa2uutqep3qxca-story.html
Likely R --> Likely R
District 147:
Republican Caucus Chairwoman Marcy Toepel is retiring at the end of her term, leaving this northern Montgomery County district open, and likely making it a stretch target for the state Dems. It has a hard GOP lean, but a strong Democrat challenger could likely make the GOP nominee sweat.
https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/high-ranking-house-republican-toepel-announces-2020-retirement/
Likely R --> Lean R
Rating HD58 as Lean R seems very optimistic. Trump won this district 63/34 and even Romney prevailed here by a 55/43 margin. And considering how red Westmoreland is becoming, I think Strong R would bem more approriate
Poll
