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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 167214 times)
LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« on: June 23, 2020, 02:07:44 PM »


TX-32, TX-24, possibly TX-06?



AZ-06 and/or AZ-01
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2020, 07:48:13 AM »
https://www.politico.com/playbook


Quote
FIRST LOOK FOR PLAYBOOKERS … MINNESOTA REP. TOM EMMER, the chair of the House GOP’s campaign arm, will use a virtual meeting of House Republican lawmakers this morning to brief them on a new battleground poll the Terrance Group conducted June 7-10 among 1,014 swing voters. Here are the highlights:

THE POLL SHOWS REPUBLICANS hold a 1-point advantage over Democrats on the generic ballot (testing a generic R vs. generic D). … THE ECONOMY is a top concern of voters -- 23% says it’s their top concern, followed by corruption in D.C. at 20% and the coronavirus at 10%. 56% of voters approve of the job the president is doing on the economy. … Unsurprisingly, DEFUNDING POLICE is unpopular, with 59% of swing voters opposed. But 51% support the protests -- which might help explain some of the urgency to address police conduct. Read the memo Republicans will get this morning

NRCC internal: R+1 on the generic ballot
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #2 on: June 30, 2020, 09:29:19 AM »
There is no way to look at the quantity of these Dem internals showing Trump underperforming massively and the lack of ANY GOP response and conclude anything other than that Trump is in a terrible, awful position.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2020, 02:53:44 PM »
Tossup
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #4 on: July 07, 2020, 08:43:16 PM »
DCCC poll in NJ-02

Jeff Van Drew (R-inc) - 47
Amy Kennedy (D) - 44
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #5 on: July 08, 2020, 10:24:21 AM »
« Edited: July 08, 2020, 10:29:32 AM by LimoLiberal »
The Green Wave continues



I also saw that Elaine Luria (VA-02) raised $800,000ish but I can't find the tweet.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #6 on: July 09, 2020, 03:26:04 PM »


Lean D
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #7 on: July 14, 2020, 10:44:02 PM »


Lean D
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #8 on: July 15, 2020, 04:30:21 PM »
Quote from: VARepublican on July 15, 2020, 04:09:26 PM
NBC News/Wall Street Journal
July 9-12
900 RV
MoE: 3.3%

Democratic 47%
Republican 43%
Undecided 10%

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6989473/200356-NBCWSJ-July-Poll-7-15-2020-Release.pdf

Last poll: D +11

This and the Monmouth PA poll showing a similar divergence are something to keep an eye on.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2020, 06:04:46 PM »
Quote from: VARepublican on July 31, 2020, 04:07:31 PM
MI-10 - Republican primary
WPAi/Club for Growth/Hernandez internal

Hernandez 33% (+6)
McClain 27% (-5)
Slocum 10% (-2)
Undecided 30% (+1)

Favorables:
Hernandez 45/7
McClain 37/8
Slocum 17/4

https://cdn.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CfGPAC_MI_CD10_PollingMemo.pdf

Another failure to nominate a woman in a safely Republican seat.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2020, 06:12:10 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on August 01, 2020, 06:09:49 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on August 01, 2020, 06:04:46 PM
Quote from: VARepublican on July 31, 2020, 04:07:31 PM
MI-10 - Republican primary
WPAi/Club for Growth/Hernandez internal

Hernandez 33% (+6)
McClain 27% (-5)
Slocum 10% (-2)
Undecided 30% (+1)

Favorables:
Hernandez 45/7
McClain 37/8
Slocum 17/4

https://cdn.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CfGPAC_MI_CD10_PollingMemo.pdf

Another failure to nominate a woman in a safely Republican seat.

Though Hernandez is Hispanic. That has to count for something, especially since this seat is over 90% white.

You and Kevin McCarthy would be good friends (just teasing)
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2020, 06:29:32 PM »
Quote from: lfromnj on August 01, 2020, 06:11:05 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on August 01, 2020, 06:09:49 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on August 01, 2020, 06:04:46 PM
Quote from: VARepublican on July 31, 2020, 04:07:31 PM
MI-10 - Republican primary
WPAi/Club for Growth/Hernandez internal

Hernandez 33% (+6)
McClain 27% (-5)
Slocum 10% (-2)
Undecided 30% (+1)

Favorables:
Hernandez 45/7
McClain 37/8
Slocum 17/4

https://cdn.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CfGPAC_MI_CD10_PollingMemo.pdf

Another failure to nominate a woman in a safely Republican seat.

Though Hernandez is Hispanic. That has to count for something, especially since this seat is over 90% white.

See if the gop nominated the women it would be proof of racism
Catch 22

Well, I feel like we've been hearing since January 2019 about the Great Republican Women comeback orchestrated by Elise Stefanik.

The big wins for Republican women have consisted of a conspiracy-adjacent gun nut (possibly allowing the Democrat to win), an actually conspiratorial gun nut (we'll see if she survives the runoff), and Lisa Scheller. Basically any other Republican woman in a competitive primary against men (in competitive or non-competitive seats) has tanked.

The Texas lady against Pete Sessions, ME-02, VA-07, UT-04, NY-19, GA-07, IL-14, NC-11 (Trump endorsed!). The GOP electorate is just not comfortable with women candidates.

Of course, Republicans have or will have nominated viable women candidates in competitive seats like SC-01, OK-05, NY-11, NY-22, CA-39, CA-48, IA-01, IA-02. But all of those candidates faced only nominal opposition or had their main opponents also be women. 

With Susan Brooks retiring (and IN-05 a Tossup), and Ann Wagner in grave danger, Republicans could lose two more of their ranks, with no guarantee to add more besides Mary Miller in IL-15.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2020, 06:38:28 PM »
Quote from: gracile on September 17, 2020, 04:03:41 PM
There will be three Cook House rating changes tomorrow, including one that would have "shocked" Wasserman a month ago:



Any guesses on what the three districts will be? I think TX-03 to Tossup is pretty likely for the shock change.

You guys are reading this wrong. Wasserman loves to troll his heavily Democratic following, and what's changed drastically in the last month? Have things gotten significantly better for Democrats?  No, although they're still clearly in the driver's seat. I bet the "shock" will be a seat that Democrats expected to win shifting right. Considering Wasserman's fixation on Biden's weakness with Democrats in the Rio Grande Valley, I would put $10 on the "shock" being TX-23 moving from Lean D to Tossup. This is backed up by both parties putting millions of dollars down in ad reservations in the El Paso and San Antonio markets.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #13 on: October 01, 2020, 08:20:20 AM »
Republican super PAC putting $9 million down in Michigan in the next 33 days to try to knock off Peters.

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/10/01/republican-super-pac-to-spend-9-million-in-michigan-senate-race/
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #14 on: October 01, 2020, 08:26:30 AM »


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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #15 on: October 01, 2020, 01:20:44 PM »
Some good numbers for GOP challengers:




And a good number for a Dem challenger in western Colorado:
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #16 on: October 01, 2020, 01:24:08 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 01, 2020, 01:23:04 PM
That's a great # for Hunt. Though Fletcher is really safe, especially in an election year, so...

Lizzie Fletcher probably raised $2,000,000+ as well.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2020, 02:42:14 PM »
Quote from: Concerned Trump Supporters against Conspiracy Theorist Ernst on October 02, 2020, 12:44:37 PM


Those are some good-looking candidates.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #18 on: October 04, 2020, 01:00:18 PM »

You can quibble with some of the individual ratings, but I think the overall outlook is quite reasonable and they've correctly identified the Dem-held seats most likely to flip.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #19 on: October 04, 2020, 01:14:26 PM »
Quote from: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 04, 2020, 01:07:06 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on October 04, 2020, 01:00:18 PM

You can quibble with some of the individual ratings, but I think the overall outlook is quite reasonable and they've correctly identified the Dem-held seats most likely to flip.

CA-21 and FL-26 are not among the most likely seats to flip R, especially with Biden winning them by double digits

Hmm. After being skeptical early this year I am now pretty convinced that Trump is seeing real improvement with Hispanic voters, especially in S Florida. I'm personally more bearish than most on CA-21/FL-26/FL-27/TX-23 for that reason so I would disagree with you there but it's really something we can't know until the results are in. I believe Nate Cohn from the NYT had a twitter thread about how undecided Hispanics broke late in 2018 towards the Democrats and messed up some of his polling, I could definitely see that happen again.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #20 on: October 05, 2020, 11:10:15 AM »
Incredible.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #21 on: October 05, 2020, 10:02:59 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 05, 2020, 09:51:42 PM
NRCC is pulling out of VA-05.



I doubt this, but we'll see.

I've been phone banking for the Webb campaign and I'm seriously impressed with apparatus. It's a tough district but he has a fighting chance and will definitely do better than Leslie Cockburn.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #22 on: October 20, 2020, 08:45:19 PM »
Predictions for Cook rating changes tomorrow:

VA-02: Tossup -> Lean D
IA-01: Tossup -> Lean D
MI-08: Lean D -> Likely D
MI-11: Lean D -> Likely D
TX-24: Tossup -> Lean D (D GAIN)
IN-05: Tossup -> Lean D (D GAIN)
AR-02: Lean R -> Tossup
MI-03: Lean R -> Tossup
TX-02: Likely R -> Lean R
PA-17: Lean D -> Likely D
NJ-05: Likely D -> Safe D
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2020, 11:35:45 AM »
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #24 on: October 28, 2020, 02:50:40 PM »
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