Democratic Nevada Caucus results thread (entrance poll @2pm ET) (user search)
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  Democratic Nevada Caucus results thread (entrance poll @2pm ET) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Democratic Nevada Caucus results thread (entrance poll @2pm ET)  (Read 46596 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: February 20, 2016, 09:38:51 AM »
Does anyone know if people who are at work get time off to caucus at 11am local time ?

On the other hand, 11am on a Saturday should be good for student turnout.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2016, 02:06:32 PM »
Quote from: Castro on February 20, 2016, 02:05:27 PM
CNN says Sanders thinks they could win the PV, but Clinton might win the most Delegates.

Of course she will, because of the silly Superdelegates.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: February 20, 2016, 02:10:02 PM »
The more I see on CNN about the huge lines, the less I like the caucuses.

I mean, what if there was really big turnout (500.000 or 600.000) and not just 100.000 ?

How do they crowd all these people into these few caucus precincts ? Primaries are definitely better. Or caucuses should be held the whole day and not just for an hour.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2016, 02:11:05 PM »

In 1 hour.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #4 on: February 20, 2016, 02:32:27 PM »

I always shiver when I see lines like these in a western country like the US.

There should be no lines ... period.

How about setting up 10 times the number of caucus precincts next time ?

And this even with that extremely low turnout of 100.000 people ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #5 on: February 20, 2016, 02:36:12 PM »
Quote from: MikeWells12 on February 20, 2016, 02:35:41 PM
I'm calling Nevada for Sanders right now.

Ummm ... why ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #6 on: February 20, 2016, 02:38:59 PM »
3rd world countries have a better election administration than Nevada (or other caucus states).
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #7 on: February 20, 2016, 02:44:58 PM »
So, the caucus starts in 15 minutes and CNN just showed a quarter mile long line outside ...

Highly disturbing from an Austrian's point of view. I never waited more than 1 minute to vote.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #8 on: February 20, 2016, 02:47:46 PM »
Quote from: #TheShadowyAbyss on February 20, 2016, 02:45:24 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 20, 2016, 02:44:58 PM
So, the caucus starts in 15 minutes and CNN just showed a quarter mile long line outside ...

Highly disturbing from an Austrian's point of view. I never waited more than 1 minute to vote.

We get it, you don't like long lines.

Nah, I don't like incompetent election administration that sets "elections" on a Saturday or weekday and keeps away working people or people in line who might go home because they are too late, can't stand the heat etc. etc. etc.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #9 on: February 20, 2016, 02:48:25 PM »
Quote from: Niemeyerite on February 20, 2016, 02:47:16 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 20, 2016, 02:44:58 PM
So, the caucus starts in 15 minutes and CNN just showed a quarter mile long line outside ...

Highly disturbing from an Austrian's point of view. I never waited more than 1 minute to vote.

You have repeated this like 3 times.

And ? Does it make it less accurate ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #10 on: February 20, 2016, 02:50:10 PM »
Caucuses are a fu**ing disgrace.

Abolish or reform them next time ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #11 on: February 20, 2016, 02:51:26 PM »
Quote from: Joe Republic on February 20, 2016, 02:50:38 PM
The elderly ladies in front of and behind me complaining about standing here in the direct sun.

Exactly what I said ...

Terrible.

A disgrace.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #12 on: February 20, 2016, 02:55:10 PM »
Quote from: #TheShadowyAbyss on February 20, 2016, 02:52:32 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 20, 2016, 02:51:26 PM
Quote from: Joe Republic on February 20, 2016, 02:50:38 PM
The elderly ladies in front of and behind me complaining about standing here in the direct sun.

Exactly what I said ...

Terrible.

A disgrace.

OMG WE GET IT TENDER

IT NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED THOUGH !!! OTHERWISE IT REMAINS THE SAME CRAPPY SYSTEM !!! Get advice from Liberia how to handle elections properly, NV, IA etc. !!!
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #13 on: February 20, 2016, 02:57:49 PM »
I will now stop my rants and grudgingly accept the fact that caucus administration is idiotic.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #14 on: February 20, 2016, 02:59:07 PM »
Quote from: Violent Socialist on February 20, 2016, 02:58:34 PM
How accurate is this "entrance" poll going to be, considering that it seems like most voters aren't in the doors yet? lol

Not really accurate. In IA it was off by about 6-8%.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #15 on: February 20, 2016, 03:02:34 PM »
Looks like the poll is roughly 50-47 Clinton, with 3% uncommitted.

Based on some 350 early entrants.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #16 on: February 20, 2016, 03:04:12 PM »
Women are Clinton+13, men are Sanders+13.

But there are 52% women and 48% men.

http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/NV/Dem
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #17 on: February 20, 2016, 03:06:50 PM »
Another quick calculation of the crosstabs based on race brings us to

49.5 Clinton
47.5 Sanders

overall.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #18 on: February 20, 2016, 03:09:30 PM »
Quote from: Watermelon sin Jamón on February 20, 2016, 03:08:06 PM
Where are our numbers coming from ? Who is actually pblishing an entrance poll and where ?

Entrance poll:

http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/NV/Dem

But this is just initial entrance poll data, the late entrants will be added to the poll later.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #19 on: February 20, 2016, 03:11:35 PM »
Anyway, will we see actual vote counts this time or these silly delegate equivalents again ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #20 on: February 20, 2016, 03:14:47 PM »

Correct.

This process is painful to watch.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #21 on: February 20, 2016, 03:22:46 PM »
You are reading too much into these early entrance poll numbers.

This poll will be amended later with late entrants and will look totally different ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #22 on: February 20, 2016, 03:31:28 PM »
Quote from: Mehmentum on February 20, 2016, 03:28:55 PM
CNN saying that Sanders is winning latinos by 11 points.

The Black moms and grandmommas in SC are next ... Wink
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #23 on: February 20, 2016, 03:37:43 PM »
Looking good.

Hopefully the Black mommas/fathers in SC are now rethinking their Hillary-fetish too in the next week.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,193
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #24 on: February 21, 2016, 10:04:09 AM »
This turned out relatively uncool after all ...
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