UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Pericles]

I saw this good news the other day-excess deaths 5,000 lower than normal. It is a relief that Omicron is so much milder. It looks like the official Covid death toll may now be overestimating the death toll, unlike in the rest of the pandemic, and recording people who just happened to have Covid and were not killed by it. The decision to get rid of legal isolation requirements feels extreme, but it probably needs to happen eventually especially since Omicron is so transmissible so is there really going to be a better time for it?

Yeah - it’s pretty good news on the excess mortality stats.

Not sure what the national consensus is on total removal of lockdown rules is. At work, people are pretty skeptical, and there’s a local consensus that it’s just Johnson trying to shore up his support among the right of the party (anti-mask ’freedom lovers’ like Desmond Swain etc) - most of my colleagues fall into the ‘lefty academic’ stereotype though, so I may be in a slight echo chamber.

Johnson is obviously motivated by keeping his job so it is for the wrong reasons but hopefully it isn't the wrong decision.

[Pericles]

Is there really any need for a pact? Most anti-Tory voters seem fairly aware of the concept of tactical voting these days and will vote accordingly, and given that both Labour and the Lib Dems are now led by fairly uncontroversial leaders there’s much more scope for this to happen than in 2019.

In giving tacit approval to some sort of pact, Labour risks getting pushed into a corner on electoral reform and possibly losing the ability to ever enact any meaningful change again. That should be born in mind before treating with a runt party like that the Liberal Democrats (especially since the prospect of the Lib Dems propping up the Tories in a hung Parliament is remote, and thus they don’t have much in the way of leverage, unlike in 2010).

It's near perfect for both parties-no LibDem seats are vulnerable to Labour while virtually all the LibDem targets are Tory seats.

[Pericles]

Has Boris Johnsons been saved by the Russian invasion of Ukraine basically sucking up all the oxygen in terms of public attention ?  

Not in the court of public opinion-a majority still want him gone. However, the moment for a leadership challenge has passed, and his short-term survival is looking good. It will be a challenge for him to make it to a general election. Labour maybe should hope he does though. I have mixed emotions, he is a bad person and unfit to be PM but policy-wise Sunak or Truss will likely be worse.

[Pericles]

Muldoon lost that election, to be clear.

[Pericles]

Possible there are byelections in Wakefield and Somerton/Frome in quick succession - if nothing else this is likely to demonstrate the de facto Labour/LibDem electoral alliance again.

After Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire, Somerton and Frome should be an easy pickup for the LibDems. And in this environment, Labour should be easily flipping Wakefield.

I wonder if the LibDems will double their caucus in the parliament again lol.

[Pericles]

It could be an in between version of 2005 and 2010, with the Tories as the largest party in a hung parliament. After 2016, the Tories have only had the DUP as possible allies in a hung parliament. Given how seriously Boris backstabbed them, you have to wonder whether 320 seats is now the bare minimum that he has to win. After 14 years in power, it's about time for a change in government. Starmer being bland is hardly a negative in such an environment.

[Pericles]

All things considered, Sunak hasn't had the greatest of fortnights.

One person who it has gone perfectly for is now the most likely Prime Minister after the next general election, Keir Starmer.

[Pericles]

Really now, there is no way that keeping Boris and Rishi Sunak in office is not sending a giant "f**k you" to the British public. That is a surprisingly stupid move from a party that prizes itself above all on its ability to win general elections.

[Pericles]

It’s being briefed that Johnson took joy in Rishi’s downfall and is going to sack him.

The one thing that isn’t reported about him (due to his well oafness) is that he does have a very vengeful and well nasty streak. Almost everyone he has touched in his political career has came out burnt in some way.

If that's true, Rishi should have resigned yesterday and dragged Boris down with him. Though he still has a narrow window to damage Boris with his resignation so hopefully the person mouthing off to the media comes to regret it.

[Pericles]

UK to send asylum seekers to Rwanda for processing

This feels really dodgy, surely it will be a disaster. Unfortunately, it might even be a politically difficult disaster to fix given how toxic the immigration issue is. The timing can't be a coincidence either. Maybe that means it is just a headline grab, and will fall through later.

[Pericles]

I don't think there's really a downside from this situation. Yes, Starmer is a good person and it would be a shame if he had to resign. The most important thing though is that there is a change of government in 2024. If he isn't fined, he secures the moral high ground and the pressure on Boris would be even stronger. If he is fined, Labour is shown to be a party with integrity and they could easily get a more charismatic leader.

[Pericles]

A Labour-LibDem government is more attractive than one dependent on the SNP, this is the opposite of a scare campaign lol.

[Pericles]

The MP being arrested makes it look pretty serious. It feels a lot like that Anatomy of a Scandal show on  Netflix, surely the writing is better this time lol.

[Pericles]

Turns out the arrested MP's victim is male and oh, who'd have thunk it, the MP has voting consistently against gay rights. Tories are honestly the massive deviants and hypocrites they think the rest of society are, aren't they?

Has the name of the MP been confirmed?

[Pericles]

I don't think calling the Leader of the Opposition "Sir Beer Korma" and claiming he has a "sanctimonious obsession" sets the right tone for an occasion that he is supposed to be acting humble for.

[Pericles]

I wonder if they're now waiting for Wakefield and Tiverton. Any leadership change could not be executed before those by-elections and would just ensure the seats are lost. Maybe the plotters want to make sure Boris gets all the blame for it and then make their move as it becomes harder and harder for MPs to deny that he is a vote loser now.

[Pericles]

I wonder if they're now waiting for

Heard this a million times. I'll believe there's a leadership challenge when I see one.

I don't think they'd want to rush into knifing the guy who got them an 80-seat majority. However, it's hard to see them being stupid enough to wait three years, know they will lose their seats with him, not have anything other than electability attracting them to him anyway, and then just go ahead and lose an election. Inertia is powerful and these leadership changes always take a while.

[Pericles]

Labour MPs knew Brown would lose them seats in 2010, they know Mr Tony would lose them seats in 2005 and the same for the Tories with Major in 1997- all three show why it’s hard to depose a sitting Prime Minister.

The Conservatives have had numerous chances- I’m old enough to remember when you only had the locals and conference as the ‘fake’ triggers to get rid of a leader. They’ve had dozens of chances.

Blair was never going to actually lose the 2005 election though. Brown and Major should have been knifed though, Labour has less of an excuse because 1992 was such a huge upset that years of bad polls didn't count for as much. The track record isn't great for party leaders that are electoral losers, especially if they're Conservatives.

[Pericles]

Yeah, the Lascelles Principles only stop a dissolution if there's an alternative PM available, so I think they only stop a Johnson General Election gambit once the Conservative Party actually has a new leader.  I don't think that was the scenario being floated; rather the idea is that Johnson, after losing or nearly losing a Tory VONC, comes out with some "the MPs have spoken, but let's now ask The People" line and goes to the country.  Alternatively, he does it to pre-empt the Tory VONC.  In either of those scenarios I think the Queen agrees to the dissolution.

That can't be right, surely? It would be obvious that there would be an alternative who can win the confidence of Parliament-the winner of the leadership election. I don't see why the identity of the individual would need to be known if it's a fact that they will exist.

[Pericles]

Yeah, the Lascelles Principles only stop a dissolution if there's an alternative PM available, so I think they only stop a Johnson General Election gambit once the Conservative Party actually has a new leader.  I don't think that was the scenario being floated; rather the idea is that Johnson, after losing or nearly losing a Tory VONC, comes out with some "the MPs have spoken, but let's now ask The People" line and goes to the country.  Alternatively, he does it to pre-empt the Tory VONC.  In either of those scenarios I think the Queen agrees to the dissolution.

That can't be right, surely? It would be obvious that there would be an alternative who can win the confidence of Parliament-the winner of the leadership election. I don't see why the identity of the individual would need to be known if it's a fact that they will exist.

I think knowing the identity of the individual is pretty key to knowing if they would be able to command the confidence of parliament, like let's say the PM reject's boris's call for a snap election. Are you going to trust Boris to be caretaker prime-minister while the conservative leadership contest happens ?

If someone can win a Conservative leadership election, then anyone has to assume they would command the confidence of a Parliament with around 360 Conservative MPs.

[Pericles]

Yeah, the Lascelles Principles only stop a dissolution if there's an alternative PM available, so I think they only stop a Johnson General Election gambit once the Conservative Party actually has a new leader.  I don't think that was the scenario being floated; rather the idea is that Johnson, after losing or nearly losing a Tory VONC, comes out with some "the MPs have spoken, but let's now ask The People" line and goes to the country.  Alternatively, he does it to pre-empt the Tory VONC.  In either of those scenarios I think the Queen agrees to the dissolution.

That can't be right, surely? It would be obvious that there would be an alternative who can win the confidence of Parliament-the winner of the leadership election. I don't see why the identity of the individual would need to be known if it's a fact that they will exist.

I think knowing the identity of the individual is pretty key to knowing if they would be able to command the confidence of parliament, like let's say the PM reject's boris's call for a snap election. Are you going to trust Boris to be caretaker prime-minister while the conservative leadership contest happens ?

If someone can win a Conservative leadership election, then anyone has to assume they would command the confidence of a Parliament with around 360 Conservative MPs.

The issue is that any situation where Boris is calling for a snap election following a VONC, implies he has at least some personal support from the conservative caucus that would not nessciarly have the support. In essence, the Queen would be forced to make an explicitly political choice which is something she's been very loath to do.

Also talking about precedent is now a parliamentary bill that governs the calling for election, that explicitly strips judicial review from the process.

https://bills.parliament.uk/publications/41467/documents/206

If he loses the vote, he can't call it, and he can't use it to pre empt an imminent vote either imo. If he wins the vote then he has the same authority as Prime Minister regardless of whether he gets 300 votes or wins by a single vote.

[Pericles]

Big news is that letters can be submitted by Whatsapp- there were hilarious tales of MPs saying they couldn't submit letters as they were too afraid they'd get caught dropping it off. Of course they were lying as you can simply email it or put it in the post...

It would ofc be Labour's dream for him to win a narrow confidence vote & then watch as the Tories have to keep him until the election; especially if the privileges committee find that he has lied. The Conservatives have not handled this very well. 

A narrow win with further scandals, polling declines and by-election losses would probably only delay his exit by a few months. The 1922 Committee can get rid of the one-year rule at any time.

Besides, a leadership change in late 2023 wouldn't be such a disaster for the Tories. Plenty of politicians have won elections having only been the party leader for a few months. Boris did, after all.  Even if he was unusually high-profile, having less time for the new leader to rack up their own baggage could be an advantage.

[Pericles]

Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and Ben Wallace have come out in support of the Pm, are Cabinet ministers forbidden from voting against the PM ?

It's a secret ballot.  Possibly not everyone who has said they're supporting Johnson actually will...

ok, hmm seems Hunt so far is pretty alone is openly opposing Boris. Sajid David is still backing Boris and so are most other possible replacments.

Hunt is not in the cabinet, he was actually fired by Boris in 2019. He has every reason to get revenge now, along with it of course being the right thing to do.

[Pericles]

Drilling for fossil fuels in Jeremy Hunt’s constituency appears to have been approved, and made public within 48 hours of him publicly attacking Johnson. There could well be an innocent explanation, but it’s hard not to see this as petty revenge.

Especially given that the Isle of Wight’s MP yesterday made a specific point of saying that he voted for Johnson after he was promised significant funding for his constituency.

Full statement from Hunt at the link below.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1534827165329633285

Even if they don't like Hunt, that is close to a marginal seat at the next general election, if Boris is still leader. Hunt only won by 15 points and the LibDems had a huge surge in a seat that was 59% Remain. Elections don't tend to come down to a single seat but they're in no position to be throwing away seats.

[Pericles]

Saturday seems to have just been a day of self-destructive statements for Johnson.

He started with “I’m never going to change” and ended with “I’m going to serve at least 3 terms! You won’t get rid of me until the 2030s!”

Just bizarre all around. The 3 terms comment feels particularly ill-judged, given recent history. If I recall, Gordon Brown’s Curry House Plot was triggered directly by Blair bragging about going for indeterminately longer. And Thatcher’s insistence on similar rhetoric, as her premiership was spirally, was a shot of adrenaline for opponents like Heseltine.

I wonder if that was taken out of context. The only thing I can find is him saying "I am thinking actively about the third term and what could happen then. But I will review that when I get to it." Technically though, 2019 was the first term. That said, he would be hypocritical to complain.