UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Pericles]

The right message that a second independence referendum and a Yes vote would create a lot of chaos and painful ‘wrangling’, especially when combined with timing concerns. However he’s exactly the wrong messenger to be making that point, given he unleashed the chaos and wrangling of Brexit for most likely no gain and at best an ‘El Dorado’ of gains years away. In one way though (not one that the polls back up though), Brexit actually weakens the case for independence, because it’s the same basic kind of emotional nationalism. The union of the UK would be so much more painful to leave than the EU (even if Scotland actually gets to rejoin the EU). That said, there probably will need to be another referendum, though a worry about a referendum immediately  post pandemic is that people’s votes are based too much on Brexit. I guess a referendum is the only real way of discovering how solid the new support for independence that the polls show.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2021/jan/28/boris-johnson-scottish-independence-vote-endless-constitutional-wrangling-video

[Pericles]

It took almost a perfect storm for New Zealand to vote for MMP. We had two elections where the popular vote loser won a majority, then two consecutive governments that pushed unpopular agendas that went massively against their promises (and could do so because they had a majority). In a lucky accident the referendum was actually offered and held at the exact right time to capitalize on the backlash to both major parties, and still MMP only got 54%. I do think the UK should have MMP, but without the electoral system being as obviously broken (and normal people won't see hung parliament as such a good thing), the fear of change will likely prevail and FPP would win (though not by as much as in the AV referendum).

[Pericles]

What's the story here exactly? Can someone give me a quick rundown? This sounds hilarious.

Honestly too hard to explain without watching the video below but a combination of people managed to make the zoom recording of a Parish Council Meeting that went off the rails go viral.

Parish Ccouncils  are the lowest levels of local government in England, have very small or non-non existent budgets and have a reputation of being dominated by the eccentric, the elderly and busy bodies.

This meeting was pretty much an argument about whether to even have the meeting & Zoom made it 100 times better.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/feb/05/handforth-insults-and-expletives-turn-parish-council-meeting-into-internet-sensation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgGmYeAm0jk

It did strike me how old they all were watching it. Also they were all white, though their area might not be diverse so while diversity in local government is an issue I don't know if it's a big problem in that parish.

[Pericles]

Boris is lying-

Johnson also gave more information about the decisions behind the tier system of restrictions, saying that discovering the Kent variant of Covid-19, also known as B117, led to the system being dropped.

“That was an incredibly important moment, because we were then able to work out what was happening, because we could see that B117 was basically transmitting considerably faster,” he said.

“With that we were able to understand why the tiering system that had been basically working for much of the autumn just wasn’t going to work any more.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/27/data-still-supports-lifting-covid-19-restrictions-insists-boris-johnson

There was a second lockdown because the tiered system was not working! There was no point where the tiered system was working, the old one failed against the old variant, while the new upgraded tiered system got quickly overwhelmed by the new variant. The best that can be said is that hypothetically, the new tiered system would have worked against the old variant in December, but that's impossible to know for sure. Plus, Christmas easing probably would have been greater then and there would have been a third surge anyway.

[Pericles]

The British people aren't going to vote for electoral reform anyway so it's just a distraction for Labour.

[Pericles]

I would be wary of reading a *massive* amount into an undertaking a decade ago which was putting forward far from the most popular option for electoral reform, and for a large number of people turned into a de facto plebiscite on one of the most despised politicians of modern times.

Though of course it *could* be passed without a referendum, especially if various parties committed to that in their manifestos.

It's not the AV referendum but people don't tend to vote for actual electoral reform unless there is a very obvious need for it. And sadly, the last two hung parliaments haven't shown a very obvious need for it.

[Pericles]

Is he right? Boris Johnson says no evidence to delay 21 June reopening

His instincts have been wrong three times before, so it's not particularly reassuring. The UK recording no deaths today and still cases in the low thousands are great numbers. However, the scientists are worried a lot about the Indian variant (now called Delta?). Its increased transmissibility is boosting case numbers slightly, but it's hard to tell whether it will cause a significant amount of deaths. The vulnerable populations have already been vaccinated, so those who are unvaccinated should have less severe illness. However, it's unknown exactly how low the death risk is and how much the Delta variant will spread, so maybe there is cause to worry and push the reopening back a bit.

[Pericles]

I'm following Matt Hancock's testimony, while he is surely being dishonest (since he has said a few times that he has "no recollection" of stuff, and giving generally suspicious answers), it is still interesting to see. One point he raised is that he claims that only 1.6% of transmission into care homes came from discharges from hospitals. Maybe that's right, but the second wave death toll in care homes was about the same as the first wave toll even though the overall toll was much higher in the second wave-so it seems the unique vulnerability of care homes in the first wave was quite high (but perhaps this was for other reasons). Hancock also seems to be claiming that the first lockdown really started on 16 March, certainly social distancing doesn't perfectly line up with the exact start dates of the lockdown. However it is rather pathetic given that New Zealand locked down before we had a single death. He then seems to be implying that the scientific advice is to blame for the first lockdown being delayed, rather than the government. And that's partly right but the government was ultimately responsible and got it wrong, and notably other countries did better (or less bad) than the UK.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/jun/10/uk-covid-live-news-latest-updates-matt-hancock-pandemic-coronavirus-brexit-g7

[Pericles]

Scottish independence would be 'Brexit times ten'

This is a basic point that has been missed. Scotland is linked so much more closely to the rest of the UK than it was to the EU. Just like Brexit, independence is an emotional but economically irrational policy, with no clear plan for how it can be done safely. Fortunately, despite feverish media commentary, a hypothetical second referendum is not a done deal by any means for Yes.

[Pericles]

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/11/labour-leadership-boris-johnson-liar-

I thought this article was interesting, for how silly it is. John McDonnell is the wrong person to lecture Labour on how to win political fights. Furthermore, I don't trust his basic diagnosis, Johnson's achilles heel is competence, people aren't under illusions that he's a morally upstanding person. And I doubt that it's a wise move for the opposition to be coming into an election with a bulky, complicated platform, regardless of how early they signal it. One of the silliest things comes at the end though, when he says that "My fear is that, if the Labour leadership continues on this path, people will increasingly see a party divided and fail to know what it stands for." Writing articles criticising the party leadership certainly doesn't scream party unity.

[Pericles]

This is so tragic, and I can relate to what has been said about accessibility of MPs. It's sickening, and it may reflect a decline in politics that keeps good people out of public service. Most of all, it is tragic for his loved ones, and they should get love and support at this time.

[Pericles]

What awful luck for Starmer to test positive for Covid on Budget Day. Hope he's alright although he should easily recover.

[Pericles]

Some are seeing it as fortunate - if he had bombed today it would have badly affected his leadership, and as it is his supposed "rival" Reeves has got the gig instead. Let's see how they get on.

From the clip I saw Reeves did as well as could be hoped for, not that it matters.

[Pericles]

Time to camp outside Brady’s office again.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1458811870803017731

It's beautiful.

[Pericles]

Matt Hancock in talks over Covid book deal

Why would he write this while he's still in politics? He could make himself look better by making the somewhat true case that he was ahead of the curve more than Boris and Sunak. However, he can't afford to undermine them because he's still trying to get back into cabinet.

[Pericles]

"Fiscal discipline" is not something that appeals to the further left, who see it as a euphemism for cuts.

Labour's economic brand is pretty poor with the voters they need to win so they need to reassure people they will be responsible before they listen to their offer for better public services.

[Pericles]

Does yesterdays dire result cement a no confidence vote in the new year?

I'm not an expert but my gut feeling is leadership changes take longer than expected to happen, inertia can keep a failing leader in power for quite a while but not until the next general election and that is now looking less sure for Boris

[Pericles]

That conversation is hilarious. It also feels a bit off and hypocritical for the free speech warriors not to even bother responding to Dorries. They seem pretty deluded politically, but they're useful idiots at the moment.

[Pericles]

Starmer had it right when he said Labour should be proud of Blair's government. If you have a Labour government for 13 years, you can do a lot of progressive stuff such as significantly reducing child poverty and introducing the minimum wage. Labour needs to remind people of the good stuff they did, this helps people believe in what they are offering for the future.

[Pericles]

The interesting thing and something that lots of people said when it first came out all appears to have come from leaks within the Government.

None of the main leadership contenders seem to have been implicated, so it would probably be one of their supporters. Who benefits from bringing on a leadership contest this year?

[Pericles]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1481358087286108169?ref_src=twsrc%5...

How is this even accepted as a statement of support? It means nothing.

[Pericles]

It's a sign of the times that my reaction was 'well that's good but it could be higher.'

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1482442842437992450
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1482442710984368130

Woah.

Worth remembering the 1997 vote was:

Labour: 43%
Conservative: 30%
Lib Dem: 17%

And that the 2019 election was largely the reverse (Con 43%, Lab 32%, LD 7%)

While Labour may possibly be at a high water mark right now (subject to a post-scandal correction, and a new PM’s honeymoon period), it’s incredible to think what a change of political fortune this polling represents.

Which of course is the big question mark that I as an outside observer have right now: When Johnson goes (he's gonna fall eventually, it's hard to survive long being underwater with your own base voters) and a successor cabinet comes in, will the situation return to respectable Tory leads, or will this be the turning point that Starmer needed to finally make his competent government pitch applicable and desirable? Its hard to imagine in the latter situation that the leads would remain this big, but it is imaginable that they persist and there becomes a "government in waiting" - Labour had poll leads for almost all of Major's five elected years as PM.

I think the new PM would get a poll lead for the first few months. After that, whether they fall behind like Gordon Brown did in 2007 or not depends on their own strengths and weaknesses and not much on how Boris did.

[Pericles]

Disappointing that patients would be put at risk and that there are doctors stupid enough not to get vaccinated. Given how long the UK vaccine rollout has been going for, this should have been implemented months ago. It is also nonsense that it would lead to a shortage, the vast vast majority just comply with outright mandates. Public health just doesn't matter at all compared to Boris Johnson's job in this government, hopefully Britain gets lucky and avoids much damage from those choices.

[Pericles]

At this point, Boris Johnson should be sacked not for the parties but because he is clearly too stupid to be Prime Minister.

[Pericles]

I saw this good news the other day-excess deaths 5,000 lower than normal. It is a relief that Omicron is so much milder. It looks like the official Covid death toll may now be overestimating the death toll, unlike in the rest of the pandemic, and recording people who just happened to have Covid and were not killed by it. The decision to get rid of legal isolation requirements feels extreme, but it probably needs to happen eventually especially since Omicron is so transmissible so is there really going to be a better time for it?