Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Vosem]

What are the political differences between Ceuta and Melilla? What explains the former going PSOE and the latter going PP?

Looks like mostly vote-splitting? The Ceuta seat was won by Vox outright in 2019, but PP cannibalizing Vox resulted in the seat going to PSOE because neither outpolled PSOE. Also, Melilla has a local left-wing regional party (CpM) which takes votes from PSOE, but nothing like this exists in Ceuta, so in practice Ceuta tends to be more winnable for PSOE even though I think just adding the blocs gets you the result that Melilla is the more left-wing of the two.

[kaoras]

What are the political differences between Ceuta and Melilla? What explains the former going PSOE and the latter going PP?

Usually not much. Both Ceuta and Melilla usually start PSOE because the ultra low-turnout muslim neighborhoods get counted first and then they flip to PP. But PSOE is still hanging out in Ceuta by 7% with 70% counted. They may be able to keep it, lmao.

[DavidB.]

How is the relationship between Junts and PSOE?

[kaoras]

How is the relationship between Junts and PSOE?

Junts will vote against any government.

[Epaminondas]

Amazing feat by Sanchez.

When's the last time any EU election did not underestimate the right-wing? Corbyn?

[BigSerg]

The right will not obtain a majority. This is largely due to the fact that the PSOE swept Catalonia due to the huge drop in separatist turnout. It is very doubtful that with these data Junts or Erc will continue supporting PSOE, considering that they are committing political suicide. Therefore, new elections.

[kaoras]

Okay PSOE will lose Ceuta, the right will still fall short.

[KaiserDave]

I've seen enough, the right will not get enough seats for government

Isn't it premature at the current vote count? But that would amazing, hopefully Sanchez can capitalize on it.

Lmao, it is absolutely premature considering that Madrid has a %5 vote count. If you look at the percentages for each province, actually the Psoe is doing REALLY BADLY. https://www.nytimes.com/es/interactive/2023/07/23/espanol/mundo/elecciones-espana-resultados.html

How’s it going

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Amazing feat by Sanchez.

When's the last time any EU election did not underestimate the right-wing? Corbyn?

Probably sooner than that, surely?

[Oryxslayer]

Wait so we are at 68% of the vote counted but only 10% in Madrid? I know from following this before that is not normal,  it has to be the trains thing right?

It's also almost certainly why the combined left is doing noticeablely better. While we're still not headfirst a right-wing majority and more the MOE result more polls points too in the 170ish area, its where all the missing votes are, right?

[Zinneke]

Amazing feat by Sanchez.

When's the last time any EU election did not underestimate the right-wing? Corbyn?

Is it amazing as a feat? We are back to square one but with the Catalan nationalists now teething and needing to up the ante.

THis is mostly PP absolutely ballsing this up by being seen as too close to Vox and alos Feijoo was not a very impressive candidate. Like even if Ayuso is corrupt and a hate figure on the left, she legit had simple slogans enough to mobilise the chavs, like "libertad o communismo". I didn't see many memorable Feijoo campaigning, I saw a campaign on the defensive because of the Vox issue (and this is partially down to Sanchez gambling yes), that looked like it was designed by coporate consultants.

[BigSerg]

I've seen enough, the right will not get enough seats for government

Isn't it premature at the current vote count? But that would amazing, hopefully Sanchez can capitalize on it.

Lmao, it is absolutely premature considering that Madrid has a %5 vote count. If you look at the percentages for each province, actually the Psoe is doing REALLY BADLY. https://www.nytimes.com/es/interactive/2023/07/23/espanol/mundo/elecciones-espana-resultados.html

How’s it going

Well, that's good. The right will not have a majority, but neither will the Psoe. The Catalans will not support Sánchez with this data, they are now very aware that they are committing political suicide. The drop in participation and the Psoe sweeping Catalonia are their salvation, but also their condemnation.

[Zinneke]

I've seen enough, the right will not get enough seats for government

Isn't it premature at the current vote count? But that would amazing, hopefully Sanchez can capitalize on it.

Lmao, it is absolutely premature considering that Madrid has a %5 vote count. If you look at the percentages for each province, actually the Psoe is doing REALLY BADLY. https://www.nytimes.com/es/interactive/2023/07/23/espanol/mundo/elecciones-espana-resultados.html

How’s it going

Wait before you mock. Then make it a sig.

[Red Velvet]

I love how lefty my 2nd home city (technically province but you get the idea) of Barcelona is. PSOE and Sumar are the top 2 voted parties

PP + Vox get a total of 21% there and this is because Spain shifted Right compared to 2019.

Barcelona (79% counted):

PSOE - 36,16% (13 seats) - left
Sumar - 15,14% (5 seats) - left, but more than PSOE
PP - 13,61% (5 seats) - right
ERC - 12,23% (4 seats) - left, but also Catalan independist party
Junts - 9,50% (3 seats) - big tent, but also Catalan independist party
Vox - 7,65% (2 seats) - right, but also fascists

[kaoras]

Wait so we are at 68% of the vote counted but only 10% in Madrid? I know from following this before that is not normal,  it has to be the trains thing right?

It's also almost certainly why the combined left is doing noticeablely better. While we're still not headfirst a right-wing majority and more the MOE result more polls points too in the 170ish area, its where all the missing votes are, right?

Madrid is at 47%

[jeron]

The right will not obtain a majority. This is largely due to the fact that the PSOE swept Catalonia due to the huge drop in separatist turnout. It is very doubtful that with these data Junts or Erc will continue supporting PSOE, considering that they are committing political suicide. Therefore, new elections.

The right also would not have had a majority, had the psoe not swept Catalonia...

[Oryxslayer]

Wait so we are at 68% of the vote counted but only 10% in Madrid? I know from following this before that is not normal,  it has to be the trains thing right?

It's also almost certainly why the combined left is doing noticeablely better. While we're still not headfirst a right-wing majority and more the MOE result more polls points too in the 170ish area, its where all the missing votes are, right?

Madrid is at 47%

Province, not city, unless El Pais  is missing a bunch of votes from somewhere.

Edit: looks like it was, all the missing stuff showed up in this update.

[BigSerg]

So that people understand the bad position in which this leaves the separatists. The Catalan "unionist" vote added together, is 60%. That's pretty terrible, all thanks to abstention. I don't see them continuing to support the Psoe with this.

[jaichind]

So that people understand the bad position in which this leaves the separatists. The Catalan "unionist" vote added together, is 60%. That's pretty terrible, all thanks to abstention. I don't see them continuing to support the Psoe with this.

That would be my sense too.  But that just means another election.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

In what universe would Catalonian nationalists be rewarded for sabotaging a government that, by all accounts, receives broad support from Catalonians of all backgrounds, as evidenced by the massive surge in the support of PSOE and Sumar in rural Catalonia? What is the chain of events where this would work out for them?

Ultimately, Catalonian nationalists do not need to care about whether their voters back them in federal elections. The present arrangement isn't optimal for them but they have power and autonomy in a devolved government, which their voters are tacitly supporting by voting for PSOE and Sumar. On the other hand, we have also seen that these people are deranged and dangerous who are capable of acting irrationally, so who knows, but I sense that various posts here copium - the right failed disastrously tonight.

[jaichind]

Right win bloc at 168 now

[jaichind]

In what universe would Catalonian nationalists be rewarded for sabotaging a government that, by all accounts, receives broad support from Catalonians of all backgrounds, as evidenced by the massive surge in the support of PSOE and Sumar in rural Catalonia? What is the chain of events where this would work out for them?

Because if it gets into the minds of Catalonian regionalist voters that a vote for Catalonian regionalist is really a vote for PSOE then such voters might just as well just vote PSOE.

[Red Velvet]

Well, it really looks like neither right (PP + Vox + UDN + CC??) or left (PSOE + Sumar + ERC + Bildu + BNG) will be able to get a majority on their own.

Which means whatever government is formed will depend on the centrist Independist Parties from Basque Country (PNV) and Catalonia (Junts).

So whoever wins and gets to be Prime-Minister is doomed from the start. New elections could happen very soon and just like 2019 I think this would only benefit the right.

[kaoras]

Is going to be another election unless PSOE regains a bunch of seats thanks to the foreign (CERA) votes in the next few days. Even then, Sanchez may still take the gamble lol.

[BigSerg]

In what universe would Catalonian nationalists be rewarded for sabotaging a government that, by all accounts, receives broad support from Catalonians of all backgrounds, as evidenced by the massive surge in the support of PSOE and Sumar in rural Catalonia? What is the chain of events where this would work out for them?

I mean, the Catalan voters of the separatist parties want independence, it is quite obvious that they punished them with abstention for supporting the central government and not getting a referendum.