2020 CDU Leadership Contest

[Astatine]

So we might get another long-term CDU leader?

If we look at recent times, a short-term leader was always succeeded by a long-term leader and vice versa.

Rainer Barzel 1971-1973
Helmut Kohl 1973-1998
Wolfgang Schäuble 1998-2000
Angela Merkel 2000-2018
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer 2018-2020

I suspect that this is the final und best chance for Friedrich Merz. Centrists will have a hard time finding a formidable and broadly-appealing candidate:

Daniel Günther might be popular in his home state but the Eastern associations would crush him due to his views and comments on cooperation with Die Linke.
Ursula von der Leyen is gone.
Tobias Hans is another Governor whose profile arose in recent times but he is from Saarland and would be perceived as AKK 2.0 as he is her hand-chosen successor.
Armin Laschet might be the only option, plus he is Governor of the largest state, but he is not somebody who energizes the base.
I guess Jens Spahn will not run this time but rather when the Leadership is open next time.

Personally, I feel a little bit sorry for AKK. She is from my home state and I met her in person sometimes, and she is not somebody who I'd perceive as incompetent, although I disagree with her politically. The job she did as Governor was quite decent, not necessarily good but not bad either. She just did not get along with Berlin politics, as her political instincts which brought her to great successes in Saarland are not enough to survive on federal level. That's politics.
Plus although her handling of gaffes and elections was extremely bad in general (she really was not made for the leadership top job), her role as Secretary of Defence should be distinguished from that. Ursula von der Leyen was a horrible SoD (like most of her predecessors), so AKK inherited some tough work and did not manage it utterly bad. From what I heard from media, her approval among soldiers is much better than Ursula's as she is down-to-Earth and appeared to care more about the Bundeswehr than her job. But then again, those are some subjective reports.
Might be interesting to see whether she will still play a role in politics (maybe continue serving as SoD?) or retire. She does not have a Bundestag seat (and would run in my constituency if she still decided to run). Schäuble and Barzel did not retire immediately, as well as Erhard and Kiesinger, although the comparisons are hard to make.

[Astatine]

AKK is planning to propose a successor for herself on February 24.

Michael Kretschmer was misquoted. She will just announce how the new leader will be elected, not whom she proposes.

[Astatine]

Plot twist: Former environment minister (2009-2012) und incumbent Bundestag foreign affaiers committee chairman Norbert Röttgen has officially announced his candidacy for the CDU chairmanship.

He'll probably not suceed, but it potentially blows the field and the process wide open. So far, AKK tried to tightly control events and this goes against it.

He is responsible for the worst showing of CDU in the history of NRW, so if elected, we might see a repeat of that on federal level.

[Astatine]

Plot twist: Former environment minister (2009-2012) und incumbent Bundestag foreign affaiers committee chairman Norbert Röttgen has officially announced his candidacy for the CDU chairmanship.

He'll probably not suceed, but it potentially blows the field and the process wide open. So far, AKK tried to tightly control events and this goes against it.

He is responsible for the worst showing of CDU in the history of NRW, so if elected, we might see a repeat of that on federal level.

First and foremost, Röttgen is another "I've got a score to settle with Merkel" candidacy similar to Merz' candidacy. In 2012, he was fired (and that literally means fired because he had refused to resign) by Merkel as environment minister and scuttblebutt is that he never got over it.

Would not be too surprised if we ended up with incoming candidacies of Roland Koch, Christian Wulff, Günther Oettinger and Jürgen Rüttgers.

[Astatine]

The events in Washington D.C. are certainly not helping Merz's chances for CDU leader either.

Merz is seen as a Trump-like extremist/hardliner of some sort within the CDU and among CDU members, which might have been somewhat popular in the past years.

But considering the events, the CDU delegates might now opt for Laschet or Röttgen as a more de-escalating alternative ...

I strongly doubt that there are any delegates who will change their vote from Merz to Laschet/Röttgen simply because of the capitol riots.

[Astatine]

The events in Washington D.C. are certainly not helping Merz's chances for CDU leader either.

Merz is seen as a Trump-like extremist/hardliner of some sort within the CDU and among CDU members, which might have been somewhat popular in the past years.

But considering the events, the CDU delegates might now opt for Laschet or Röttgen as a more de-escalating alternative ...

I strongly doubt that there are any delegates who will change their vote from Merz to Laschet/Röttgen simply because of the capitol riots.

Few would for *just* that reason, perhaps - but it maybe creates a somewhat worse climate for him?

I don't really think it has any impact at all. As pointed out by palandio, Merz is more comparable to a Reaganite, nobody (but maybe some young Twitter lefties or so) sees him as German Trump. He's way too intellectual for that too.

[Astatine]

Merz: 385 votes
Laschet: 380 votes
Röttgen: 224 votes

Runoff is Lean/Likely Laschet I'd say.

[Astatine]

Laschet just beat Merz by about 52.5-47.5 in the runoff.

I somehow expected this (after the Washington Capitol riot, I think delegates went with the safer, non-controversial choice).

Lol, no, Merz has his own baggage and was never the clear favorite. He is an "old school conservative" in his style, no single delegate would associate Merz with Trump or anything that happened in DC. This take is almost olawakandesque.

[Astatine]

Laschet just beat Merz by about 52.5-47.5 in the runoff.

I somehow expected this (after the Washington Capitol riot, I think delegates went with the safer, non-controversial choice).

Lol, no, Merz has his own baggage and was never the clear favorite. He is an "old school conservative" in his style, no single delegate would associate Merz with Trump or anything that happened in DC. This take is almost olawakandesque.

Certainly not.

Merz was always seen as slightly Trumpesque and the Washington situation might have moved a few delegates to the Laschet side.

How many delegates is unclear, but certainly some.

By whom?

If you take a look at some young left-wingers Twitter profiles, then likely yes. But this is the CDU, not Rose Twitter. When Politico - with their weird takes - brought exactly this comparison of Merz with Trump, Merz was defended by his own rivals. Ask any CDU members - if you know any - whether they agree that Merz could be seen as slightly Trumpesque. The answer will be no. Plus, CDU members simply don't care enough about the capitol riots to let that influence their vote. Pre-convention estimates had Merz ahead in the first round, with Laschet being behind and Röttgen as distant third. Laschet's and Röttgen's combined votes outnumbered Merz', who had a solid core but could hardly gain any new delegates beyond his circle of supporters.

Merz had his own problems in recent days, but not because of the capitol riots. His "Women for Merz"-campaign (since he struggled with female delegates and the Women Union endorsed Röttgen/Laschet) was considered a joke, his recent statement about a wealth tax as "envy tax" angered the social wing, a controversial statement about whether he could imagine a gay Chancellor gets occasionally cited, but no single CDU delegate considers this Trumpist in any ways or associates that with capitol riots.

I might just refer to some other replies that explain Merz' perception very well:

Laschet is still the favorite at the moment.

Who do you think is the favorite now?

Do you expect Röttgen and Laschet's supporters to back the other in the second round against Merz?  (I assume Merz is certain to make the run-off). Or do some Röttgen supporters prefer Merz to Laschet?

EDIT: I'd also be very interested in answers from other German posters.

Yes, I still think that Laschet is favored. He has plenty of establishment support and Merz hasn't done anything over the last couple of weeks to improve his position. If anything, COVID-19 may have convinced even more delegates that now is not the time for experiments but for steady leadership.

And that's what Merz would be by the way. An experiment - NOT an anti-establishment option as others have already remarked. I think this is not unimportant as the difference between Merkel and Merz is one of style rather than substance. Ideologically, they are probably closer to each other than... let's say Charlie Baker and Rob Portman to give an U.S. example. Even the term Reaganite seems a little exaggerated (although I see the point). In the end, almost all of Merz's supposed conservatism is confined to three points: (1) free market positions; (2) Transatlanticism; (3) empty nostalgic gestures. I mean... the man has turned from being hardcore conservative to accepting same-sex marriage and talking favorably about environmentalism and a possible CDU-Greens coalition. He would face the same realities and problems as Merkel and he is pragmatic enough to know when he needs to adapt.

Agree that most of the non-Merz vote will eventually converge. Will it be enough for Laschet or will more Röttgen voters go for Merz than Spahn voters did last time? Hard to say but I don't see any good reason to think that Merz should feel confident about it.

Why is Merz so heavily favored by the betting markets? Ignorance, too much emphasis on polls of the public or...?

Depending on the betting market and its participants there can be a lot of wishful thinking involved. Merz is certainly not a Trumpist but rather some kind of Reaganite who is popular with people that are nostalgic of a more ideologically pure CDU like it was in the opposition years (1998-2005). It's quite likely that more ideologically oriented people are more engaged in the betting markets in the first place.

[Astatine]

Deputies now elected as well. Results are a serious blowback for Health Minister Jens Spahn. He received by far the fewest votes of them, just 589. Volker Bouffier got 806, Julia Klöckner 787, Silvia Breher 777 and Thomas Strobl 670 votes. Maybe a sign the CDU doesn't want him to be chancellor candidate. I certainly hope so. Laschet is much better.

Spahn angered many by abusing the candidate question time to encourage the delegates to vote for Laschet. Combined with some negative press coverage regarding problems of his vaccination policy, this could explain the poor performance.

[Astatine]

So, the whole inner circle of the party leadership seems complete now:

Leader:
Armin Laschet (replaces AKK)

General Secretary:
Paul Ziemiak

Deputy Leaders:
Jens Spahn (replaces Laschet)
Silvia Breher
Volker Bouffier
Thomas Strobl
Julia Klöckner

Chair board:
Bernd Althusmann
Monika Grütters
Reiner Haseloff (replaces the Master of Disaster of Thuringia, Mike Mohring)
Michael Kretschmer
Karl-Josef Laumann
Norbert Röttgen (replaces Spahn)
Annette Widmann-Mauz

Merz was called on to run fair the Chair board, but declined (just as in 2018). He already received much criticism for declining to work within the leadership circle in 2018, so I'd say that this will not really help him (although there's not much more of a career left for him). The opposite can be said for Röttgen.

Btw, assuming Laschet becomes candidate for Chancellor and wins in 2021, who will succeed him as Governor of NRW?
Maybe Röttgen?

[Astatine]

Btw, assuming Laschet becomes candidate for Chancellor and wins in 2021, who will succeed him as Governor of NRW?
Maybe Röttgen?

The guy who got fired by Mutti because he delivered the worst state election result for the CDU in NRW ever? No. I think it will be his good buddy Karl-Josef Laumann, Health and Labor Minister of NRW.

The question regarding Röttgen was pure sarcasm. With Röttgen's focus on foreign policy on federal level, it is quite clear he has no ambitions for a statewide office.

And regarding Laumann, yeah, I agree, he seems like the most likely choice (+he is already represented in the national Chair board).

[Astatine]

Btw, assuming Laschet becomes candidate for Chancellor and wins in 2021, who will succeed him as Governor of NRW?
Maybe Röttgen?

The guy who got fired by Mutti because he delivered the worst state election result for the CDU in NRW ever? No. I think it will be his good buddy Karl-Josef Laumann, Health and Labor Minister of NRW.

The question regarding Röttgen was pure sarcasm. With Röttgen's focus on foreign policy on federal level, it is quite clear he has no ambitions for a statewide office.

And regarding Laumann, yeah, I agree, he seems like the most likely choice (+he is already represented in the national Chair board).

Röttgen would actually be an excellent foreign minister. Better than Maas. I can't believe I'm saying this, given my party membership.

All of my fellow Saarländer Cabinet members are mediocre at best.

Imho: AKK > Maas > Altmaier imho (for minister performance only)