2020 CDU Leadership Contest

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https://apnews.com/ceea5a109ba1f7c157e18d77864d2427?utm_medium=AP&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter

Could you please add a poll to this topic? Preferably with a second question regarding if the new CDU chairman will also become the Union's chancellor candidate.

Something like that:

Code:

Who will succeed AKK to the CDU chair? (Will he also become the Union's chancellor candidate?)

Friedrich Merz (yes)
Friedrich Merz (no)
Armin Laschet (yes)
Armin Laschet (no)
Norbert Röttgen (yes)
Norbert Röttgen (no)

That would be very kind and considerate of you, hadn't you started this thread, I would love to have done it.

Note: It's a tradition, but no statutory or binding obligation that the Union's chancellor candidate has to be the CDU or CSU chair.

Aside from Governor Markus Söder, who has been staying tight-lipped about his political ambitions, Corona Minister Jens Spahn has put himself into play for the chancellorship.

The chair election is to take place on Saturday; the online convention itself will begin tomorrow; only the three candidates for the chair and the party executive committee are reported to be be present at the party convention hosted in Berlin.

The election is so exiting because there are only polls among voters and CDU members available; however not the party base will decide upon AKK's successor, but the 1,001 delegates. Thus, even the political pundits are absolutely not sure who will emerge victor (although they suppose Merz does have the edge over his competitors).

The Frauen-Union ("women's union"), a huge and very influential association within the CDU/CSU, which is said to have earned AKK her victory two years ago, have backed both Röttgen and Laschet, whereas Merz has been endorsed by the very conservative Junge Union ("young Union") and the neo-liberal Mittelstands-Union ("mid-tier union").

The latest poll among the voters (not the delegates) was conducted by infratest dimap on January 4/5, delivering the following results:

All voters:



CDU voters:




Here's also the poll about the favorability of the potential chancellor candidates of the Union parties (without Spahn, alas):

All voters:



CDU voters:



Bavarian Governor Söder has been hotly favored for the chancellorship for over a year now, but I'm not sure if he still is after his recent unbridled fit of restrictive, all-encompassing authoritarianism.

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Btw, assuming Laschet becomes candidate for Chancellor and wins in 2021, who will succeed him as Governor of NRW?
Maybe Röttgen?

The guy who got fired by Mutti because he delivered the worst state election result for the CDU in NRW ever? No. I think it will be his good buddy Karl-Josef Laumann, Health and Labor Minister of NRW.

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Laschet just beat Merz by about 52.5-47.5 in the runoff.

I somehow expected this (after the Washington Capitol riot, I think delegates went with the safer, non-controversial choice).

Lol, no, Merz has his own baggage and was never the clear favorite. He is an "old school conservative" in his style, no single delegate would associate Merz with Trump or anything that happened in DC. This take is almost olawakandesque.

Certainly not.

Merz was always seen as slightly Trumpesque and the Washington situation might have moved a few delegates to the Laschet side.

How many delegates is unclear, but certainly some.

The problem with Merz is that he gives a fugg about his own party. The only thing he wanted to become was chancellor candidate and consequently chancellor. To do so he had to grasp the nettle called party chair.

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Btw, assuming Laschet becomes candidate for Chancellor and wins in 2021, who will succeed him as Governor of NRW?
Maybe Röttgen?

The guy who got fired by Mutti because he delivered the worst state election result for the CDU in NRW ever? No. I think it will be his good buddy Karl-Josef Laumann, Health and Labor Minister of NRW.

The question regarding Röttgen was pure sarcasm. With Röttgen's focus on foreign policy on federal level, it is quite clear he has no ambitions for a statewide office.

And regarding Laumann, yeah, I agree, he seems like the most likely choice (+he is already represented in the national Chair board).

I just wanted to explain the sarcasm to everyone who isn't familiar with German politics.
A way more important and critical question is: Who will succeed Söder to his throne as Bavarian despot Governor?
Answers here, please!

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Deputies now elected as well. Results are a serious blowback for Health Minister Jens Spahn. He received by far the fewest votes of them, just 589. Volker Bouffier got 806, Julia Klöckner 787, Silvia Breher 777 and Thomas Strobl 670 votes. Maybe a sign the CDU doesn't want him to be chancellor candidate. I certainly hope so. Laschet is much better.

I'm wondering if Spahn's backlash can also be construed as a hint from Armin's supporters - considering that the Corona Minister is his "adlatus" - that they actually prefer Söder as their chancellor candidate?

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Merz was called on to run fair the Chair board, but declined (just as in 2018). He already received much criticism for declining to work within the leadership circle in 2018, so I'd say that this will not really help him (although there's not much more of a career left for him). The opposite can be said for Röttgen.

Selfless Merz refused the offer for a seat in the party executive committee because he would have prevented a woman from occupying that post. Isn't he altruistic?

Friedrich Merz has - as altruistic as he is - instead proposed himself to his newly-elected party chairman as a potential applicant for the Ministry of Economy, currently held by Merkel's "adlatus" Peter Altmaier; but his deadly foe Chancellor Angela Merkel, however, instantly declined his selfless devotion, stating she doesn't intend reshuffling her cabinet...

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Armin Laschet has now officially been declared the winner of the chairmanship election.

In the vote-by-mail ballot, which has been additionally executed on legal grounds, he received 796 (83.35%) out of 980 votes from the same 1,001 delegates as the ones at the digital convention.
Note that only Laschet himself was granted ballot access.