Ontario 2018 election

[PeteB]

This allows them to vote their preference in ridings where Liberals were strong. Contrary to others, I actually think it will strengthen the Liberal vote in places like Ottawa Centre, Spadina Ft. York, Willowdale, Eglinton Lawrence and even places like Beaches East York. Will it be enough? Who knows.

But strong relative to *whom*?  In only two of those seats are the Tories historically the primary opposition.

Actually, I think the prime seat Wynne has in mind is her own--it's just her luck that she represents the ultimate "strategic left = Liberal" riding...

Let me be clear - Wynne is not doing this to help the "progressive vote" or the NDP - she is doing this to help the Liberal Party (as she should). And the Liberals have a better chance of keeping their previous margins if the voters believe that the party has already been punished. The fact that most of those seats are in areas where the main rivalry is with the NDP rather than the PC is just luck of the draw. And if some Liberals do vote for the NDP and help them beat PC in some seats, that still indirectly helps the Liberals as they will be the kingmaker in a minority situation.

As I said, this is a good move for OLP, but she should have done it a few days ago.

From the NDP point of view, this is still good as they may lose a few close seats to the Liberals, but with Liberal voter support, they will win a few against the PC and potentially get to a minority government position. As we discussed a couple of days ago, I do not see a path for an NDP majority, so this would be their best scenario.

[PeteB]

This allows them to vote their preference in ridings where Liberals were strong. Contrary to others, I actually think it will strengthen the Liberal vote in places like Ottawa Centre, Spadina Ft. York, Willowdale, Eglinton Lawrence and even places like Beaches East York. Will it be enough? Who knows.

But strong relative to *whom*?  In only two of those seats are the Tories historically the primary opposition.

Actually, I think the prime seat Wynne has in mind is her own--it's just her luck that she represents the ultimate "strategic left = Liberal" riding...

Let me be clear - Wynne is not doing this to help the "progressive vote" or the NDP - she is doing this to help the Liberal Party (as she should). And the Liberals have a better chance of keeping their previous margins if the voters believe that the party has already been punished. The fact that most of those seats are in areas where the main rivalry is with the NDP rather than the PC is just luck of the draw. And if some Liberals do vote for the NDP and help them beat PC in some seats, that still indirectly helps the Liberals as they will be the kingmaker in a minority situation.

As I said, this is a good move for OLP, but she should have done it a few days ago.

From the NDP point of view, this is still good as they may lose a few close seats to the Liberals, but with Liberal voter support, they will win a few against the PC and potentially get to a minority government position. As we discussed a couple of days ago, I do not see a path for an NDP majority, so this would be their best scenario.

Except most people that are voting liberal probably are part of the ~24% of Ontario voters that approve of Wynne so it’s not like they think the OLP should be punished. It’s also unlikely that many people that disapprove of Wynne are suddenly going to change how they would vote based on a Wynne concession. Wynne should have just defended her record and gone after the ~24% of voters who approve of her.

Maybe. But what she is trying to do here is to go after the 15%+ of those who used to vote Liberal but were not going to until today. Different strategy - we'll see if it works.

[PeteB]

The "conventional wisdom" says Christine Elliott would have been the better PC leader who would have won it in a walk.  But who knows if that's true?  While she's more popular among the editorial board at the Globe and Mail, maybe an NDP surge on the left with a more generic PC leader would have allowed the NDP to fare stronger among the working class and "populist" vote.  Not just Etobicoke/Scarborough, but places like Brantford, Chatham, Sarnia and Sault Ste. Marie very well may find Ford more appealing.

Agreed. Many PC politicos saw that with Ford they would win more seats. The logic is that rural seats which vote PC would stay loyal one way or the other. With Ford they would find it difficult to win seats like DVW but they could instead win seats in Etobicoke and Scarborough. Unless Liberal voters return after Wynne's concession, I would also add several Brampton and Mississauga seats to the list.

I just drove down from central Ontario and it's a sea of blue, wherever you look. In most places it looks almost like Japan when the LDP was getting 80% of the vote. Granted, this is PC country, but I don't remember such a one-sided look.

[PeteB]

The "conventional wisdom" says Christine Elliott would have been the better PC leader who would have won it in a walk.  But who knows if that's true?  While she's more popular among the editorial board at the Globe and Mail, maybe an NDP surge on the left with a more generic PC leader would have allowed the NDP to fare stronger among the working class and "populist" vote.  Not just Etobicoke/Scarborough, but places like Brantford, Chatham, Sarnia and Sault Ste. Marie very well may find Ford more appealing.

I disagree, it's pretty clear that Elliott would have been a stronger leader than Ford. Ford's personal ratings are almost as bad as Wynne's, so he's clearly been a drag on the PCs. The PCs were over 40% in the polls before the Brown allegations, and since Ford became leader they've gone from nearly 45% to just over 35%. As has been pointed out previously, Doug doesn't even have Rob Ford's charisma. And Elliott would have maintained the People's Guarantee(except for the carbon tax) and wouldn't have had the whole lack of a costed platform fiasco.

Furthermore, this assumes that the NDP would have been able to consolidate the left as effectively. Elliott is less of a motivator for strategic voting than Ford is-and the NDP may have struggled to consolidate the left. And Elliott also would have gotten more of the 'change' vote-Horwath's whole attack on choosing between 'bad and worse' may have been less effective when it's not Doug Ford vs Kathleen Wynne.

The PCs should have this election in the bag. When Wynne and the Liberals are so unpopular, they're the logical alternative. Horwath has run a strong campaign but the NDP has been aided a lot by the other two unpopular parties, which also makes their negatives much less significant. Ford's bad campaign is why the NDP is competitive with them for that change vote, and if the PCs lose they'll have only themselves to blame.

I think you are missing two important  points:

1. Ford's personal negatives hide lots of shy voters who say he's a jerk and then vote for him. If he is winning low income ridings in Toronto, where PC never had a chance, then it is him bringing in that vote. Elliott may have won the Don Valley seats and Willowdale but they would have been at 4-5 seats. With Ford, 10-12 Toronto seats are possible.

2. I agree that Ford is responsible for the NDP being competitive. But let's see what would have happened if the PC was being led by Elliott. The NDP would stand no chance (too extreme) and the voters would grudgingly support the Liberals. That in fact was Wynne's planned strategy against Brown. For all we know, that may have put a stop to the PC, which the NDP unfortunately cannot do.

[PeteB]

OK I see Guildwood and Agincourt now.  So Mitzie Hunter still has some support.  This is a tough call for the "strategic voter."

Not really. Unlike some other Scarborough ridings, in Guildwood the ABF (anyone but Ford) voter should support the Liberals.

[PeteB]

OK I see Guildwood and Agincourt now.  So Mitzie Hunter still has some support.  This is a tough call for the "strategic voter."

Not really. Unlike some other Scarborough ridings, in Guildwood the ABF (anyone but Ford) voter should support the Liberals.

Not necessarily. It's definitely a 3-way race, even if the NDP campaign is non existent.

That is my point. Nonexistent NDP campaign+popular Liberal incumbent+plenty of Ford Nation vote implies you vote for the Liberal if you are ABF. Or you can vote NDP and get PC elected.

[PeteB]

It would be interesting to know if ther are any seats the OLP are most desperately trying to save (beside KW's focus on being re-elected as the MPP for DVW in which I think she will be successful).
Realistically the numbers they can possibly hang onto is in the single digits.  

The Ottawa-Vanier/St. Paul's/Don Valley/Thunder Bay party.

At BEST, Liberals can take:

1. Toronto St. Paul's
2. Don Valley West
3. Don Valley East
4. Don Valley North
5. Scarborough Guildwood
6. Eglinton Lawrence
7. Toronto Centre
8. University-Rosedale
9. Spadina Ft. York
10. Willowdale
11. Etobicoke Lakeshore
12. Vaughan-Woodbridge
13. Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas
14. Mississauga Centre
15. Mississauga East Cooksville
16. Mississauga Malton
17. St. Catharines
18. Thunder Bay Superior North
19. Thunder Bay Atikokan
20. Ottawa Vanier
21. Ottawa Centre
22. Ottawa Soutth
23. Glengarry Prescott Russell

Out of those I would say in 8 or 9 they stand a very good chance. The other are iffy (like the TB seats) or almost impossible (like HWAD or Etobicoke Lakeshore)

[PeteB]

Oakville and Burlington are often lumped together, but Burlington really isn't Oakville-wealthy (and yes I know Oakville has more modest parts too, but on the whole it's very affluent for a city of 180,000 and that affluence "sets the tone" for the place).  

Another way to see it: Burlington is the "mirror image" of Whitby in the western GTA, while there's no "Oakville" in the eastern GTA.

And a very practical difference is that the Liberal incumbent in Oakville, Kevin Flynn is fairly popular. But I don't think even that will be enough to prevent PC taking over Oakville.

[PeteB]

Don't revoke my subscription - somebody else leaked it!:

https://twitter.com/CoryJudson/status/1003376996926283777

If NDP captures ridings like Burlington, they will be forming government. But I highly doubt it.

[PeteB]

Latest data from Pollara: dead heat
"...The NDP (37%; -6) and the PCs (37%; +5) are once again tied. The Liberals (20%; +3) remain in third place, posting some minor gains at the expense of the NDP. Although still the most favourably-viewed leader in the race, Andrea Horwath’s previously unassailable impression ratings have declined (positives down 16 points) in the week following the debate...."

https://www.pollara.com/onelxn-finalw1-may30jun2/

[PeteB]

In any race where the Liberals are possibly in contention, it's going to be close, as no Liberal is headed for a landslide victory (in other words, there are no absolutely, truly safe seats for the Liberals right now).  Another party can't be so far ahead, because personal popularity and strategic voting and so on aren't going to make up for all of that.  The Liberals will prevail because at least one party is very weak and/or another under-performs for some reason.  

In addition, some other criteria:

1.  A lot of "too educated to vote Ford, too rich to vote NDP" types (this may prove the most reliable Liberal constituency)

2.  A riding where the Liberal is clearly best positioned to defeat the Conservative or where the Conservatives have no chance

3.  Extraordinary personal popularity or at least enough to tip the vote in a close race.  Personal popularity matters more in rural and northern ridings

4.  Not too vulnerable to the NDP pulling votes from the Liberals en masse

Using PeteB's Liberal possibilities.

Toronto St. Paul's

Liberal candidate: Jess Spindler

NDP surprisingly close to the Liberals, but the Liberals have the advantage of this being a horrible fit for Ford.  Has 1 in spades, Conservatives can't win it, candidate is a political neophyte, vulnerable on the left but probably not enough to lose because of the weaknesses of the PCs.  So overall, likely Liberal hold.

Don Valley West

Liberal candidate: Premier Kathleen Wynne

Liberal-PC race with very weak NDP potential and PCs under-performing.  Has 1 in spades.  2, yes.  3, absolutely yes.  4, certainly yes.  So overall, likely Liberal hold.

Don Valley East

Liberal candidate: Michael Coteau
A real three-way race.  1, somewhat.  2, perhaps.  3, somewhat. 4, somewhat.  So overall, possible Liberal hold.

Don Valley North

Liberal candidate: Shelley Carroll

Liberal vs. PC race but PCs may be too far ahead.  1, not really.  2, yes.  3, yes.  4, yes.  So overall, Shelley Carroll is an appealing candidate for the riding and clearly the anti-PC candidate, but probably too far behind PCs, so probably not.

Scarborough Guildwood

Liberal candidate: Mitzie Hunter
Three way race, without a strong PC candidate and an invisible NDP.  1, nope.  2, somewhat.  3, yes.  4, hard to say.  Overall, it's the last Scarborough seat to fall, but don't think it's that special.

Eglinton Lawrence

Liberal candidate: Mike Colle

NDP is traditionally very weak but apparently surging and not a good fit for Ford.  1, yes.  2, yes.  3, yes. 4, possibly.  Definitely one of the better bets for the Liberals, but nothing is certain.

Toronto Centre

Liberal candidate: David Morris

Big NDP surge in the riding, Liberals may not be in contention at all, Conservatives not a factor.  1, yes, somewhat.  2, yes.  3, no (no Liberal incumbent or star candidate).  4, definitely vulnerable.  Overall, this looks like an NDP pickup.

University-Rosedale

Liberal candidate: Jo-Ann Davis

Very large NDP/Liberal swing vote in riding, Conservatives not a factor.  1, somewhat.  2, yes.  3, no incumbent or star candidate.  4, definitely vulnerable.  Overall, looks like an NDP pickup.

Spadina Ft. York

Liberal candidate: Han Dong

Very large NDP/Liberal swing vote in riding, Conservatives not a factor.  1, somewhat.  2, yes.  3, not really.  4, definitely vulnerable.  Overall, looks like an NDP pickup.

Willowdale

Liberal candidate: David Zimmer

Traditionally a Liberal/Conservative riding with weak NDP, but NDP slightly ahead of the Liberals.  1, somewhat.  2, not clear.  3, probably not.  4, very vulnerable.  Overall, hard to see Liberals keeping this, though not impossible.

Etobicoke Lakeshore

Liberal candidate: Peter Milczyn

PC-NDP race with Liberals clearly in third.  Next!

Vaughan-Woodbridge

Liberal candidate: Steven Del Duca

NDP is very weak, no reason to believe PCs are underperforming because of Ford as Ford is a better fit for the riding than a generic PC leader. 1, definitely not.  2, yes.  3, not enough to tip a double digit PC lead in a 905 riding.  4, NDP is weak and probably won't make or break the Liberals.  Overall, almost certainly not.

Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas

Liberal candidate: Ted McMeekin

KW has made some appearances with McMeekin recently.  Bad fit for Ford but progressive vote is moving en masse to the NDP.  Next!

Mississauga Centre

Liberal candidate: Bobbie Daid (had to look this up)

New riding.  Liberals may benefit from "anti-poppy" NDP candidate but that just splits the vote and helps the PCs.  So probably not.

Mississauga East Cooksville

Liberal candidate:  Damerla Dapeka

Traditionally Liberal-Conservative with weak NDP, seems somewhat vulnerable to vote-splitting, more Fordian than generic PC.  Not going to bother going through the rest here.
  
Mississauga Malton

Liberal candidate: Amrit Mangat

Traditionally Liberal-Conservative, but with NDP base from Jagmeet Singh's territory moved into the riding.  1, definitely not.  2, not clear at all.  3, definitely not.  4, NDP could win this if things go well.  Likely PC pickup due to vote-splitting, and NDP seems more likely to take it than the Liberals.

17. St. Catharines

Liberal candidate: Jim Bradley

A Jim Bradley riding, not a traditional Liberal riding, but it looks like he's in third.  Personal popularity doesn't look like it will save him.  Polling says it'll go NDP, PCs more likely to take it than Bradley.  It would be a stunner, but one of the most likely non-GTA/non-Ottawa/non-Thunder Bay holdouts.

Thunder Bay Superior North and Thunder Bay Atikokan

Liberal candidates: Michael Gravelle and Bill Mauro

Personal popularity, not riding demographics or popularity of the Liberals make these Liberal held.  Personal popularity matters far more in Northern Ontario than in the GTA.  They could hold on, but also lose to the NDP.

Ottawa Vanier

Liberal candidate:  Nathalie Des Rosiers

Good case for being the safest Liberal riding in the province, will go NDP before it goes Conservative.  Has 1 in spades.  2, yes.  3, Lib MPP is respected but it's the deep history not the candidate doing.  4, maybe with a better candiate.  Overall, likely Liberal hold.

Ottawa Centre

Liberal candidate: Yasir Naqvi

Liberal/NDP swing riding.  1, no the educated and professional classes have no problem voting NDP here.  2, yes.  3, Naqvi = Paul Dewar.  4, absolutely yes.  Going NDP.

Ottawa South

Liberal candidate: John Fraser

Looks like a genuine three-way race, with NDP polling surprisingly well.  1, somewhat. 2, unclear. 3, not clear.  4, probably not.  Overall, a bit of a crapshoot where anyone can prevail, Liberal hold is certainly possible.

Glengarry Prescott Russell

Liberal candidate: Pierre Leroux

Very popular mayor running for the Liberals, NDP has no chance.  Hard to see a riding like this going Liberal, but I guess in the unlikelihood of a rural Liberal out it'll be this one.

I looked at your list and am in general agreement with the logic but I do believe that there is a "shy Liberal" vote out there.  I also believe that there is a fifth criteria for the Liberals winning seats - places where the Liberals are not viewed so negatively and where their previous majorities were high.

So, in addition to 5-6 seats you identified as likely holds (St. Paul's, DVW, DVE, Eglinton Lawrence, Ottawa Vanier, one TB seat), I would suggest the following are also likely to stay Liberal:

1. Inner TO ridings (Toronto Centre, University Rosedale, Spadina Ft. York) - there is no real reason for these to flip to the NDP.  The voters there are not necessarily unhappy with the Liberals, there is no PC threat at all, and the previous Liberal majorities were massive (in some cases 50%+).  I would expect the Liberals to hold at least two out of the three.

2. Unlike other people here, I also do NOT believe that the NDP will do well in Mississauga.  I hate to bring ethnicity and religion into this, but things that help the NDP in several Brampton ridings (strong support of the Sikh community) will imho hurt them in Mississauga. As a result, I believe that the Liberals could hold some or all of the three ridings.  Mississauga Centre (Anti-Poppy candidate running for the NDP and PC on their third candidate after dispensing of Granic Allen) is a prime target.  It's a binary PC-Liberal race with lots of condo dwellers who may view the Liberals as a better choice.  Mississauga East Cooksville has the Minister for Seniors and Long Term Care Dipika Damerla running - I wouldn't underestimate her chances there.  Malton is also more in tune with the Liberals than the NDP (although if the NDP wins any Mississauga seats, this would be the one).  So I would chalk up one or two seats for the Liberals here.

So according to this (which you may not agree with ), the Liberals would be at 9-10 seats.  They also have a fair chance in at least 10 other ridings (DVN, Willowdale, Scarborough Guildwood, Vaughan Woodbridge, Ottawa South, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa Orleans, St. Catharines, GPR and the other Thunder Bay seat).  Assuming they win just 2 of them, they could be at 12 seats, and we can talk about a potential minority situation, assuming NDP does well in the rest of the province.

[PeteB]

"The NDP start day 27 of the campaign with an aggressive push through opposition territory. Horwath will make five stops on Monday in London North Centre (empty Liberal seat), Sarnia—Lambton (PC seat), Chatham-Kent—Leamington (PC seat), Elgin—Middlesex—London (PC seat), and Oxford (PC seat).

Interesting list. London North Centre, Sarnia-Lambton, and Chatham-Kent-Leamington are certainly must gets for the NDP.

Elgin-Middlesex-London and Oxford are both surprises. If the NDP are winning either, they are well into majority territory in my view. I would know, I live in one of them.

The NDP would win 95 other seats, before winning Oxford (or EML for that matter).  Horwath's campaign is probably just using her presence in SW to get some PR across the region.  It also doesn't hurt the NDP's credibility to be seen as interested in rural seats.  They won't win, but it is useful.

[PeteB]

Finally some US flavor to the campaign . 

Gun control as an election issue - Liberals release audio of an NRA-sounding Doug Ford.  Ford quickly claims he is in favor of gun control.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4250791/doug-ford-gun-control-audio/

[PeteB]

And we have the first candidate for the new Liberal Leader - David Henderson, the Mayor of Brockville and the Liberal candidate in Leeds Granville:

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/i-will-stand-for-ontario-liberal-leader-david-henderson

Not sure if this comes under news or election-related lighter fare though.

[PeteB]

1. Inner TO ridings (Toronto Centre, University Rosedale, Spadina Ft. York) - there is no real reason for these to flip to the NDP.  The voters there are not necessarily unhappy with the Liberals, there is no PC threat at all, and the previous Liberal majorities were massive (in some cases 50%+).  I would expect the Liberals to hold at least two out of the three.

.

In fact, it is exactly ridings like these that have seen the biggest swings to the NDP.  

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I don't think the NDP will do well in Mississauga either.  But the Liberals aren't strong enough to win anything on their own either and unite the anti-PC vote behind them.  If the PCs get 40-45% of the vote in most Mississauga ridings (which seems likely), neither the NDP or Liberals will be strong enough to beat them.  Malton seems to be the only place the NDP can win if things go well and for more Mississauga seats they'd be in majority either.

Re: Woodbridge, it's not a "Ford-skeptic" riding at all (quite the opposite!) Let's say that right now that just based on the horse race it goes 50-30-15 between the PCs, Liberals and NDP.  Does Del Duca really get at least an additional 10% (that is beyond the 30% who aren't sticking to the Liberals) because people of his personal popularity or they think he might be the leader of the party that they're turfing?  Also, if people are thinking about the "political game" when voting - consider that Vaughan likes having Cabinet representation (Fantino, Sorbara).  They're more likely to get that with the PCs than by voting for Del Duca and his "loser" party.

Red - I don't dispute the swings to the NDP in those ridings (probably even more than the 15% you suggested).  However, with 25-40% Liberal majorities in the last election, virtually no PC threat, and a generally more benign attitude towards the Liberals, I am betting the Liberals will manage to hold on in some.  Especially now that they know Wynne will be gone.

Green - If the NDP vote is not there (which we agree on) how are the Liberals not able to pick up the ABF vote?  I agree that it may not be enough and PC may still win, but they do have a shot.

Blue - I know we disagree on Del Duca, and you may yet be proven right .  However the argument that Vaughan would vote for a rookie PC MPP, in the hope that he would make cabinet is a weak one, when you have several PC incumbents, and better known candidates (Elliott) in the York/Simcoe region, who will all probably win, and be in line for cabinet.  On the other hand, with MPP Del Duca, they likely get a new Liberal leader and, if there is a minority situation, a key advocate for Vaughan, with the NDP minority government!

[PeteB]

And we have the first candidate for the new Liberal Leader - David Henderson, the Mayor of Brockville and the Liberal candidate in Leeds Granville:

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/i-will-stand-for-ontario-liberal-leader-david-henderson

Not sure if this comes under news or election-related lighter fare though.

Well that changes the game in Leeds-Grenville - NOT! 

Why - he only has a 37% deficit to make up - should be a piece of cake with the Liberals vote tanking - lol!

[PeteB]

Margaret Wente in the Globe, on the choices Ontario faces:

"..On the whole, we Ontarians are not highly ideological people. All we want is a pair of reasonably safe hands on the wheel. And what’s on offer is a couple of folks (i.e. Ford and Horwath) who you wouldn’t trust to drive a golf cart..."

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-fiscal-conservatives-are-struggling-between-options-this-ontario/

[PeteB]

Rob Ford's widow Renata sues Doug Ford

What a mess....

[PeteB]

Rob Ford's widow Renata sues Doug Ford

Wow.  I wonder if they timed this on purpose to be right before the election.  I guess the answer must be yes.

That is what Ford is alleging in his statement. And his mother is pretty much calling her an addict.

What a screwed up family....

[PeteB]

A plausible outcome could be a minority government, around 5 Liberals and both NDP and Tories around 60 seats. NDP forms a government afterwards.

Plausible yes, but only if NDP has at least a 3-4% popular vote advantage over PCs, AND the Liberals manage to get above 20% (probably to around 22-23%). In that scenario, the distribution would be roughly: PC-58 seats, NDP-54 (or 53) seats, Liberals-12 seats (and Greens maybe 1 seat ).

Otherwise, if the PC and NDP vote is roughly equal, or even if NDP has a small advantage and the Liberal vote tanks, we are probably looking at a narrow PC majority.

[PeteB]

Well, I can't see many would-be PC voters caring one lick about this, but Liberal voters on the other hand.... this might be just what it takes to get them off the fence and vote NDP.

We'll see how the story unfolds. Unfortunately the credibility of this breaking three days before the election is suspect.

Many voters are choosing PC as the lesser evil, not because of Doug Ford. While this will not change opinions on Ford, it may be enough to cause them to abstain. As for Liberal voters, those who are considering voting for Ford will probably not vote for NDP in any circumstance.

[PeteB]

Apparently Adam Radwanski of the Globe feels that the litigation will hurt Ford:

Latest controversy to hit Doug Ford could be the most damaging
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-latest-controversy-to-hit-doug-ford-could-be-the-most-damaging/

[PeteB]

There are no Liberal voters considering voting for Ford. That species does not exist

I see you are not associated with the Well-to-do Toronto 905 areas, where the business Liberals see the PC's as the latter of two evils.

Agreed. This latest Ford affair could ensure seats like Vaughan Woodbridge go to the Liberals, and may also affect some races in Mississauga. But I see this more as a PC->Liberal transfer.

[PeteB]

If I was advising Ford (ugh), irrespective who is right here, I would suggest he settles the lawsuit immediately and pay off Renata Ford. If she has a savvy lawyer, she could decide to hold a press conference tomorrow or Wednesday and "update" the media about this.

[PeteB]

There are no Liberal voters considering voting for Ford. That species does not exist

I see you are not associated with the Well-to-do Toronto 905 areas, where the business Liberals see the PC's as the latter of two evils.

Agreed. This latest Ford affair could ensure seats like Vaughan Woodbridge go to the Liberals, and may also affect some races in Mississauga. But I see this more as a PC->Liberal transfer.

And apparently Doug Ford feels the same:

Robert Benzie
@robertbenzie
While @fordnation's itinerary has one public event on it -- in Scarborough at 9:30 a.m. -- sources say he will do some unpublicized campaigning in Vaughan-Woodbridge