Ontario 2018 election

[PeteB]

Can the Liberals yet recover, in spite of the dismal polls and ratings; Enzo Dimatteo in NOW seems to think that there is some faint hope:

Ontario Election 2018: It's a Wynne-lose situation
https://nowtoronto.com/news/ontario-election-2018-kathleen-wynne/

[PeteB]

The Liberals are going to lose every riding in the 905, Peel, Durham and York. I can't see any seat they'd win?. My only prediction was Sousa in Mississauga-Lakeshore, but sounds like he's trailing.

I think the only people who are voting "Del Duca for Liberal leader" are the diehard Liberal partisans.

Not a Liberal partisan but am predicting that, assuming the Liberals are higher than 22% provincially, Del Duca retains his seat.

[PeteB]

Today's polls for Brampton Centre and Malton are very disappointing from an NDP point of view.  They haven't really moved from 2014.

So who is leading there - PC or Liberals?

[PeteB]

So who is leading there - PC or Liberals?

PCs 9 points ahead of NDP.

In that case, I agree - that is extremely disappointing for the NDP.  Peel (and the whole Northern 905) turning to PC is one factor that may decide the election.  The fact that Mainstreet is showing Sousa going down in Mississauga Lakeshore is also a bad indicator.

If the Peel ridings went to the NDP, or at least stayed Liberal, the PC would be in a minority position, after the election.  But, if the Tories start taking Peel, as well as York and Durham ridings, they will be close to majority territory, irrespective of how bad they do in the 416 area (and from their current position, they can hardly fare worse).  They are also showing strength in the East and Central ON, and at least staying competitive in the North.  Only in the SW and Niagara is the NDP truly hammering them.

[PeteB]

The NDP isn't "hammering" the PCs in SW Ontario at all.  It's very close.  What's happening is the NDP is driving the Liberals out of K-W and London.   

Getting "respectable second" in York-Simcoe and BGOS while under-perfomring in Brampton does not bid well for the NDP.

So other than the "hammering" semantics we agree.

[PeteB]

What are the genuine three-way races in this election?  Not "three way" in the sense that one party is strong enough to play spoiler but that any of the three parties can win.

Don Valley East seems to be the obvious one (the similar provincial riding of Don Mills went NDP with 35% of the vote in 1990).

Maybe Ottawa West-Nepean and Ottawa South?

St. Catharines perhaps?

[PeteB]

Quito Maggi predicts a Doug majority.

QM has a sense of humor - who knew?

Sorry, I understand that a Doug Ford led PC majority government is not what almost two thirds of Ontario voters want, our math tells us this very clearly.

Not sorry. The math is clear, in riding polls across Ontario, in Province wide polls, a PC majority is almost inevitable.

[PeteB]

Quito Maggi predicts a Doug majority.

I think a week before the election when the popular vote is this close it’s a bit premature to be so categorical about who will win the a majority. If I were Quito I would save that posting for next Tuesday or Wednesday

I agree. Like Maggi, and unlike most here, I believe that the fundamentals for a PC win are all there, but in an election as volatile as this one, I would wait and be more cautious with predictions such as this.

Besides, I am not convinced that PC would have a majority, even if they finish as the biggest party at Queen's Park.

[PeteB]

Quito Maggi predicts a Doug majority.

I think a week before the election when the popular vote is this close it’s a bit premature to be so categorical about who will win the a majority. If I were Quito I would save that posting for next Tuesday or Wednesday

I agree. Like Maggi, and unlike most here, I believe that the fundamentals for a PC win are all there, but in an election as volatile as this one, I would wait and be more cautious with predictions such as this.

Besides, I am not convinced that PC would have a majority, even if they finish as the biggest party at Queen's Park.

Yeah, I'd wait until this week is over to be so sure of a PC majority, although it is the most likely result to happen.

Especially since he said this only 2 days ago:
“It’s official – Doug Ford has blown the large lead he had in March and the Ontario election is a competitive affair,” President and CEO of Mainstreet Research, Quito Maggi, said in a release Monday.

[PeteB]

Is anyone here from Northern Ontario? I predicted that Doug Ford would play well in the working class communities across Northern Ontario, much like Trump did in the Rust Belt in 2016. 

Imagine a Trump vs Sanders race instead of a Trump vs. Clinton race.

Oh, Clinton is there as well (Wynne )!

[PeteB]

Forum out with a new poll which shows a wild PC-NDP swing

PC 39% (+6)
NDP 35% (-12)
Liberals 19% (+5)

Forum seat model shows PC winning 77 seats to the NDP 41 seats and 6 for the Liberals.

http://torontosun.com/news/local-news/braun-doug-fords-pcs-inch-ahead-in-new-poll

H+K strategies shows the NDP in the lead.

NDP 39% (+7)
PC 37% (-1)
Liberals 19% (-4)
Green 6% (+6)
http://hkinsights.ca/research-results-a-hold-your-nose-and-vote-election/

Seemingly opposed, but essentially similar polls:

1. Both PC and NDP between 35 and 39%
2. Liberals stuck on 19%
3. Structural advantage would give PC the majority in both (77 seats in the Forum poll and about 65 in the H+K one)

What needs to happen to stop PC majority:
1. NDP clearly pulling away by 5-6% from PC
2. NDP further strengthening in SW, Peel, North, in order to ensure at least 3-5 PC seat gains
3. Liberals gaining some support (22-23%), to ensure they retain 12+ seats, especially in areas of TO and Ottawa, where NDP is uncompetitive.

Can it happen? Yes. Will it? Not so sure.

[PeteB]

I have a hypothesis that the geography of PC support will be less "Ford Nation" and more the PCs doing well where they traditionally do well when they get strong support across the province. I think Ford has been a disappointment during the campaign and the coalition of low income multiethnic people who supported his brother en masse are starting to realize that Doug is not Rob and that in fact he is very much a traditional Tory

I am somewhat sceptical of this view. The "coalition of low income multiethnic people" are hearing what they want to hear from Ford - less taxes, lower Hydro rates, help with daycare, less government intervention into their social habits, cheap beer . Keep in mind that a lot of this demographic is socially very conservative and many have experiences that cause them not to trust politicians at all. From their point of view, Ford is at least promising them something.

[PeteB]

Keep in mind that a lot of this demographic is socially very conservative and many have experiences that cause them not to trust politicians at all. From their point of view, Ford is at least promising them something.

Socially conservative voters may also be dismayed at how Ford has positioned himself as the "vice" candidate. He seems to want more gambling, more drinking, more drugs...just waiting for him to propose a red light district so all his "incel" followers can get some sex too. A friend who is married to a Muslim woman told me that at his in-laws mosque, people are getting turned off of Ford because oif all this

The more educated ones perhaps.  And they would probably live in the urban ridings.  In the suburban and rural ridings, it's a different story.

Imagine an uneducated Somali immigrant family (no particular reason to pick Somalis other than the fact that I have actually met a very similar family), who is coping with their transition to Canada and who have had to work hard for everything (plenty of those in Ford's own Etobicoke North riding).  They are finding the political system hard to understand and to them, rightly or wrongly, all politicians are crooks, and everyone is taking advantage of them (which unfortunately is true in many cases). 

They don't understand or believe in the NDP messages of a social safety net, free dental care or government run services because they have had poor or no experiences with most of these. 

Ford, on the other hand, is promising them more money in their wallet, to do as they please.  They may or may not believe him but, from their point of view, what do they have to lose! 

They may have issues about Ford's colorful promiscuous babbling, but it pales in comparison to the sex ed curriculum for their children, supported by the Liberals and NDP, which many of them don't understand or accept.

Whom do you think they will vote for?

[PeteB]

My feeling is that while the PC vote will increase significantly in York South and Humber, the PC universe is too small to put them over the top.  In contrast, getting around 40% in most Scarborough ridings (enough to win) doesn't seem insurmountable for the PCs with Ford leading them.

On that note, in the supposedly "NDP safe" riding of Parkdale-High Park (my own turf), there is an inordinate amount of PC lawn signs on private properties.  In the western (more affluent) part of the riding, they absolutely dominate the landscape.  While I doubt that the PCs have a chance, it does indicate that the PCs will  significantly increase their usual 15-20% share.

[PeteB]

More LIUNA riding polls:

http://liunalocal183.ca/News/ViewArticle/tabid/70/ArticleId/289/LIUNA-COMMISSIONED-POLLS-SHOW-WYNNE-DEL-DUCA-LIBERALS-PAYING-PRICE-FOR-ANTI-LIUNA-BUDGET.aspx

All 14 ridings show a lead for the Tories.

Aurora Oak Ridges Richmond Hill: PC 45%, NDP 27%, Lib 16%
Brampton Centre: PC 45%, NDP 33%, Lib 13%
Brampton North: PC 42%, NDP 30%, Lib 17%
Brampton South: PC 37%, NDP 34%, Lib 20%
Etobicoke North: PC 49%, NDP 19%, Lib 21%
Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas: PC 42%, NDP 38%, Lib 12%
Markham Thornhill: PC 38%, NDP 27%, Lib 21%
Mississauga Erin Mills: PC 42%, NDP 26%, Lib 21%
Mississauga Lakeshore: PC 49%, NDP 24%, Lib 19%
Oakville North Burlington: PC 38%, NDP 27%, Lib 17%
Scarborough Centre: PC 48%, NDP 25%, Lib 15%
Scarborough North: PC 45%, NDP 21%, Lib 23%
Vaughan–Woodbridge: PC 54%, NDP 18%, Lib 19%
York Centre: PC 48%, NDP 24%, Lib 17%

If the numbers are correct, only Brampton South and Hamilton West Dundas Ancaster are competitive.

[PeteB]

I did explicitly point out if you know what you're looking for - i.e. it's not a question of counting signs and saying that the party with the most in a given district will win (lol no), but looking for certain patterns. Essentially they're a good way to gauge electoral enthusiasm.

As for constituency polling... ahem... if we're being honest, certain companies this time are using them as a money making scam. Beware.

I agree with this. Since I started this conversation with my comment about lawn signs in Parkdale High Park, let me just make clear that I never implied that PC will pick that riding up. I was just contrasting the flood of PC signs in this election to the usual one or two that they have had in the past.

And I DO think that it is a trend that shows something. PC may still lose or even finish in their (usual) third place, but they will undoubtedly do much better than usual, even in this traditionally Liberal/NDP riding.

Trends and patterns - ignore them at your peril.

[PeteB]

Short of a Watergate type event, at this stage there are only 2 possible results of this election:

1. PC majority (probably in the 65-72 seat range)

2. A hung parliament with PC close to majority territory (58-62 seats)

The second option is only possible with two seemingly incompatible trends happening at the same time:

1. The NDP vote improving in a lot of two way races (Chatham Kent Lambton, Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas, Brantford Brant, Sarnia- Lambton), by drawing in former Liberal voters

AND

2. At the same time, Liberal vote strengthening to take a number of urban ridings in Toronto (Eglinton Lawrence, Willowdale, Etobicoke Lakeshore, Etobicoke Centre, Don Valley North), Ottawa (Ottawa South, Orleans) and Peel (Mississauga Centre, Mississauga Maltin, Mississauga Lakeshore).

Unfortunately statistics (and smart money) makes the first option much more likely.

Unfortunately, get ready for a President Trump - Premier Ford summit .

[PeteB]

Short of a Watergate type event, at this stage there are only 2 possible results of this election:

1. PC majority (probably in the 65-72 seat range)

2. A hung parliament with PC close to majority territory (58-62 seats)

The second option is only possible with two seemingly incompatible trends happening at the same time:

1. The NDP vote improving in a lot of two way races (Chatham Kent Lambton, Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas, Brantford Brant, Sarnia- Lambton), by drawing in former Liberal voters

AND

2. At the same time, Liberal vote strengthening to take a number of urban ridings in Toronto (Eglinton Lawrence, Willowdale, Etobicoke Lakeshore, Etobicoke Centre, Don Valley North), Ottawa (Ottawa South, Orleans) and Peel (Mississauga Centre, Mississauga Maltin, Mississauga Lakeshore).

Unfortunately statistics (and smart money) makes the first option much more likely.

Unfortunately, get ready for a President Trump - Premier Ford summit .

1. HWAD is a very different seat from the others you mention (it's the "London West" of Hamilton, not a blue collar seat)

2. You've given up on Del Duca?

Sadly, I think you're right about the outcome though.

1. Agreed about the demographics of Hamilton West, but the Mainstreet poll puts the seat in play - if the NDP is to win it, it needs Liberal voters, just like the others mentioned.

2. I didn't mention Don Valley West, Ottawa Vanier or Toronto-St. Paul's either - these will all be Liberal holds, along with Vaughan Woodbridge. So yes, I still believe Del Duca will hold Vaughan Woodbridge - I just don't think there are any NDP voters there to help him.

[PeteB]

Fwiw, Wynne in an editorial interview with the Hamilton Spectator is clearly hinting Liberals would support an NDP minority government:

https://www.thespec.com/opinion-story/8645777-wynne-hints-at-supporting-minority-ndp/

Of course, Wynne may not be calling the shots on behalf of the Liberals, after the election.

And first we have to get a minority situation.

[PeteB]

One thought for the NDP, and Andrea Horwath herself, is to introduce her proposed front bench to Ontarians now. Like it or not, Ford's "the sky is falling if NDP takes over" is resonating.

Horwath would do well to outline that her cabinet would not be made up of "poppy-haters, Hitler lovers and radical marxists" but would include capable and credible people, with experience in politics; people like Peter Tabuns, John Vanthof, Catherine Fife, Michael Mantha, France Gelinas, Gilles Bisson...

Will it sway voters? I don't know but it would be a stronger answer than Horwath trying to fight windmills on her own. And it would make perfect sense, after outlining the NDP platform, to present the team that would carry out the program. After all what does she have to lose?

[PeteB]

An expected but less than enthusiastic endorsement for Doug Ford from the National Post:

"...So, while this is probably not the best choice Ontario has ever had, it is a clear choice: the Liberals must go and the NDP must not win. Ontario would therefore best be served by a Progressive Conservative government led by Doug Ford."

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/np-view-ontarios-choice-is-clear-if-less-than-ideal-a-progressive-conservative-government

[PeteB]

It may be a case of too little too late, but we will see. She should have done it at the debate, as I suggested.

Still, I can actually see a path for success for her. She is counting that there are enough people who dislike Doug Ford more than they dislike her (which is true) and who would, if they knew the Liberals were gone anyway, vote differently.

[PeteB]

It may be a case of too little too late, but we will see. She should have done it at the debate, as I suggested.

Still, I can actually see a path for success for her. She is counting that there are enough people who dislike Doug Ford more than they dislike her (which is true) and who would, if they knew the Liberals were gone anyway, vote differently.

Except most voters didn't think the Liberals had that much of a chance of getting re-elected anyway. Like how many of those voters really thought the Liberals were going to win anyway?

The NDP tried a similar tactic in 2001 in BC and it didn't help them much so not sure why it would work for Wynne.

You are dead wrong. Most forum posters here were well aware of her slim chances, I agree, but most voters were still being driven by"we have to punish the Liberals" and are by no means convinced that the Liberals had no chance. I just spoke to a reasonably informed couple outside Barrie, who were concerned that if they don't vote PC, Liberals would take that seat!?!

This allows them to vote their preference in ridings where Liberals were strong. Contrary to others, I actually think it will strengthen the Liberal vote in places like Ottawa Centre, Spadina Ft. York, Willowdale, Eglinton Lawrence and even places like Beaches East York. Will it be enough? Who knows.

[PeteB]

Contrary to others, I actually think it will strengthen the Liberal vote in places like Ottawa Centre, Spadina Ft. York, Willowdale, Eglinton Lawrence and even places like Beaches East York. Will it be enough? Who knows.

...how?

Look, most voters don't know who placed where in their riding last time round. Admitting her party's electoral irrelevance opens the Liberals up to the same nightmarish logic that saw the NDP further pulverised in 1999...

Yeah, people aren't going to vote for a party they are sure is going to lose the election.

You think? I know tons of people in TO who believe that PC will win, but will still vote either for the Liberals or the NDP.

[PeteB]

I am just catching up so apologies if this was already mentioned or discussed.  Again, no real surprise but the Toronto Star endorses NDP, somewhat reluctantly, as a tool to stop Ford:

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2018/06/01/ontario-voters-should-back-ndp-to-stop-doug-ford.html