Early Voting thread.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Will even Mastriano lead on Election Night?

Yep. He'll probably declare victory then, too.

It will then be funny when he loses by 10 points.

It'll be funny but the insufferable Doomer takes here will not be. We should tempban SnowLabrador, The Trump Virus, MillennialModerate and GoTfan in the interim.

From the guidelines in the first post in both results threads:

As always, personal attacks are not acceptable; nor is trolling, which includes excessive dooming or concern trolling.

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1586347489128419328

The data they provide is good, but those two are more hackish than anybody on atlas. D’s can certainly have a good election. Still, everything in that thread is either without context or intentionally misleading. The one good piece of information is Pennsylvania. Democrats should feel good about numbers there at the moment.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Will even Mastriano lead on Election Night?

Yep. He'll probably declare victory then, too.

It will then be funny when he loses by 10 points.

It'll be funny but the insufferable Doomer takes here will not be. We should tempban SnowLabrador, The Trump Virus, MillennialModerate and GoTfan in the interim.

From the guidelines in the first post in both results threads:

As always, personal attacks are not acceptable; nor is trolling, which includes excessive dooming or concern trolling.

Problem is those threads happen so quickly that it's impossible to reign in such types before severe thread derailment. Note how SnowLabrador derailed a few special election threads severely.

[2016]

Both, Rosenberg & Bonior are two absolutely FRAUDS.

Bonior is the Co-Owner of Clarity Campaign Labs who were FABRICATING POLLS to make the Florida Races look close and they won't be close at all.

These two people are complete hacks.

[bilaps]

Washoe 3,5k dems, 3,4 reps. Total +1400 dems. Percentages 41,0 vs 38,2. If I'm republican in Nevada, I sure hope election day turnout is going to be huge

Doesn't the universal mail-ins make that harder?

Well not if mail in and in person early turnout is not great

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shapiro and Fetterman will win it's a 303 map WI, MI, NY, CA, IL, PA, AZ, GA, NV and NH

Hopefully Ryan wins 🤞 my fingers

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both, Rosenberg & Bonior are two absolutely FRAUDS.

Bonior is the Co-Owner of Clarity Campaign Labs who were FABRICATING POLLS to make the Florida Races look close and they won't be close at all.

These two people are complete hacks.

We don't need FL, Shapiro, Whitmer are ahead and Shapiro will pull Fetterman across and so will Evers pull Barnes across like he did against Walker in 2018 and Sisolak will push CCM across just like Sisolak def LAXALT last time

The 24 Senate is already solid for Ds that's why I posted it already BALDWIN and Jacky Rosen are stronger than CCM and Barnes

Baldwin is no chopped liver she beat Tommy Thompson in 2012 and won by 10 in 2018 Rs will find it hard to beat her

[Dani Rose]

I feel like we might want to stop paying attention to this last week of polling, because the EV is going to preclude a lot of results at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MQK is probably gonna have Evers ahead and Center street Pac had to poll the Senate race and they will probably have Fetterman ahead

I don't buy split ticket voting in WI and PA, if Shapiro and Evers win so will Barnes and Fetterman

[Comrade Funk]

Republicans could have fixed the counting problem in PA, but they didn't because they want to cast doubt and rerun 2020 again. What a grand 'old party, huh?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Republicans could have fixed the counting problem in PA, but they didn't because they want to cast doubt and rerun 2020 again. What a grand 'old party, huh?

Do Rs really think they can take PA with Oz and we have Fetterman and Shapiro, NOT

[UncleSam]

Early voting blog updated by Ralston in NV: https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2022

Dems lead by ~9k with ~300k ballots returned thus far, not counting independents. Roughly a 3% edge right now.

It seems to me like these numbers are a bit lower than in prior years, but Ralston said he will dig into it later so he will probably have a better retrospective look tonight at some point.

I’d think Rs have an advantage on ED though so Dems probably need a fair bit more of an edge before then, especially if Indys are going for Rs by any appreciably margin.

[2016]

To illustrate how FRAUDULENT the Target Smart Model is when you do "Modelled Party":

It gives Frank Mrvan a nearly 30 Point edge over Jennifer Ruth Green in IN-1.

It gives Elaine Luria a nearly 9 Point edge over Jen Kiggans in VA-2

And those are just two illustrations by me.

Trash Target Smart in the bin.

[Dani Rose]

To illustrate how FRAUDUDENT the Target Smart Model is when you do "Modelled Party":

It gives Frank Mrvan a nearly 30 Point edge over Jennifer Ruth Green in IN-1.

It gives Elaine Luria a nearly 9 Point edge over Jen Kiggans in VA-2

And those are just two illustrations by me.

Trash Target Smart in the bin.

Not to be rude, but "fraududent"?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

To illustrate how FRAUDUDENT the Target Smart Model is when you do "Modelled Party":

It gives Frank Mrvan a nearly 30 Point edge over Jennifer Ruth Green in IN-1.

It gives Elaine Luria a nearly 9 Point edge over Jen Kiggans in VA-2

And those are just two illustrations by me.

Trash Target Smart in the bin.

Not to be rude, but "fraududent"?

2016 has gone beyond the election denial, and now says that polls are rigged against Rs.

[2016]

To illustrate how FRAUDUDENT the Target Smart Model is when you do "Modelled Party":

It gives Frank Mrvan a nearly 30 Point edge over Jennifer Ruth Green in IN-1.

It gives Elaine Luria a nearly 9 Point edge over Jen Kiggans in VA-2

And those are just two illustrations by me.

Trash Target Smart in the bin.

Not to be rude, but "fraududent"?

Tom Bonior is an fraud and needs to testify before Congress about misleading the American Public.

[Dani Rose]

To illustrate how FRAUDUDENT the Target Smart Model is when you do "Modelled Party":

It gives Frank Mrvan a nearly 30 Point edge over Jennifer Ruth Green in IN-1.

It gives Elaine Luria a nearly 9 Point edge over Jen Kiggans in VA-2

And those are just two illustrations by me.

Trash Target Smart in the bin.

Not to be rude, but "fraududent"?

Tom Bonior is an fraud and needs to testify before Congress about misleading the American Public.

I was mostly boggling at how that typo could happen, but if I may trot out my single favorite expression of utter brain-cramping bafflement again, just for you:

girl what

[Ferguson97]

To illustrate how FRAUDUDENT the Target Smart Model is when you do "Modelled Party":

It gives Frank Mrvan a nearly 30 Point edge over Jennifer Ruth Green in IN-1.

It gives Elaine Luria a nearly 9 Point edge over Jen Kiggans in VA-2

And those are just two illustrations by me.

Trash Target Smart in the bin.

Not to be rude, but "fraududent"?

Tom Bonior is an fraud and needs to testify before Congress about misleading the American Public.

Lmao

[GeorgiaModerate]

To illustrate how FRAUDUDENT the Target Smart Model is when you do "Modelled Party":

It gives Frank Mrvan a nearly 30 Point edge over Jennifer Ruth Green in IN-1.

It gives Elaine Luria a nearly 9 Point edge over Jen Kiggans in VA-2

And those are just two illustrations by me.

Trash Target Smart in the bin.

Not to be rude, but "fraududent"?

Tom Bonior is an fraud and needs to testify before Congress about misleading the American Public.

OK, that’s so absurd that it finally made me realize you’re a parody account. Congratulations for keeping up the act for so long!

[2016]

Target Smart needs to be locked up until after the Election because they "Modelling" is just extremely faulty especially when predicting the Unaffiliated Share of Voters who voted early.

Of Course that's just my view and I cannot speak for everyone on this Board.

I will just avoid TS!

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia

Day 13 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 100,644 voters cast ballots Saturday, for a grand total of 1,634,319 votes.

Breakdown of Saturday's voters:

Code:

54099 	White	53.75%
30613 	Black	30.42%
2807         Asian	2.79%
2541 	Latino	2.52%
10584 	Other	10.52%

56571	Female	56.21%
43746 	Male	        43.47%	
327          Other         0.32%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

940654	White	57.56%
490063	Black	29.99%
27321	Asian	1.67%
26433       Latino	1.62%
149848	Other	9.16%

899901	Female	55.06%
731141	Male	        44.74%	
3277	        Other	0.20%

I'm going to start posting my projections of what I believe the two-way EV looks like. Unfortunately, I do not have statewide voter file access this year, which otherwise would give me greater certainty in how the vote breaks down, but I have decent confidence that these figures are within the proverbial ballpark.

Estimated Georgia EV Composition:
57.81% D (944,800)
42.19% R (689,519)
Net Margin: D+255279

[South Dakota Democrat]

Just recently put 2016 on ignore, which has been very beneficial.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1586572063120101376

[UncleSam]

Georgia

Day 13 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 100,644 voters cast ballots Saturday, for a grand total of 1,634,319 votes.

Breakdown of Saturday's voters:

Code:

54099 	White	53.75%
30613 	Black	30.42%
2807         Asian	2.79%
2541 	Latino	2.52%
10584 	Other	10.52%

56571	Female	56.21%
43746 	Male	        43.47%	
327          Other         0.32%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

940654	White	57.56%
490063	Black	29.99%
27321	Asian	1.67%
26433       Latino	1.62%
149848	Other	9.16%

899901	Female	55.06%
731141	Male	        44.74%	
3277	        Other	0.20%

I'm going to start posting my projections of what I believe the two-way EV looks like. Unfortunately, I do not have statewide voter file access this year, which otherwise would give me greater certainty in how the vote breaks down, but I have decent confidence that these figures are within the proverbial ballpark.

Estimated Georgia EV Composition:
57.81% D (944,800)
42.19% R (689,519)
Net Margin: D+255279

Any idea what the EV composition was (D vs. R) in 2020 / 2018?

[Adam Griffin]

Estimated Georgia EV Composition:
57.81% D (944,800)
42.19% R (689,519)
Net Margin: D+255279

Any idea what the EV composition was (D vs. R) in 2020 / 2018?

I'll just post this here, too:

As far as yesterday (Saturday) composition goes, it wasn't as good for Dems as I had expected. I really thought the black share of the electorate would hit 32-33%, but given the unprecedented raw turnout, such probably was not feasible.

With regard to the total electorate, here are my thoughts:

My current projected EV margin: this 16-point projected Democratic lead is unprecedented when compared to the final EV electorates for 2018 (Abrams +2) and 2020 (Biden +6); I don't have available data to suggest what the margins would have been for those years as of this point in the EV calendar.

(All of the below are apples-to-apples comparisons through the second Saturday of EV)

Female share: lean good for Democrats. Slightly better than 2018 & slightly worse than 2020.

White share: great for Democrats. Weakest EV showing in Georgia's history; around 4 points lower than 2018 & around 2 points lower than 2020.

Black share: good for Democrats. One of the strongest EV showings in Georgia's history; around 1 point higher than 2018 & around 3 points higher than 2020.

Age: good for Republicans. Substantially fewer under-30s and more 65+ than in 2018 or 2020; around 2 points more 65+ than in 2018 (comparing presidential and midterms along generational lines is not necessarily informative given longstanding known gulfs between the two cycles).


All in all, things look quite good for Democrats - as of now. Typically, Week 2 is the strongest week for white participation in EV, while Weeks 1 & 3 are the strongest for black participation. If historical precedent manifests in Week 3, these trends will be cemented; the black & female shares of the EV electorate will grow by another 1-2 points, and older voters will continue to decline sharply as a share of the electorate.