Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[bagelman]

So here is (as of Sunday's EV) a map showing returned mail ballots as a percentage of mail applications by county.

Regardless of what Republicans may think of voting by mail, those who have been are clearly returning their ballots far more expediently than Democrats.

oh god. red wave incoming

[Adam Griffin]

So here is (as of Sunday's EV) a map showing returned mail ballots as a percentage of mail applications by county.

Regardless of what Republicans may think of voting by mail, those who have been are clearly returning their ballots far more expediently than Democrats.

oh god. red wave incoming

In this respect, thankfully (in relative terms) we're back to 2018 levels of mail voting (or lower): I doubt much more than 5% of all votes cast will be by mail (currently, the unreturned mail ballot applications + actual returned mail ballots comes to 260k, and I'm doubtful much more than 80% will be returned; maybe 220k out of 4.2-4.4m estimated turnout).

Now the sudden surge of white in-person vote over the past couple of days is another story...though historically, this week of EV is the worst in terms of black vote share in GA.

[Adam Griffin]

Day 10 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 132,444 voters cast ballots Wednesday, for a grand total of 1,255,773 votes.

Slight uptick in non-white vote compared to yesterday across all groups, but not enough to offset overall increase in white EV share. Females continue to see their share of the vote increase day-by-day.

Breakdown of Wednesday's voters:

Code:

81745 	White	61.72%
34339 	Black	25.92%
2201         Asian	1.66%
2017 	Latino	1.52%
12142 	Other	9.18%

73811	Female	55.73%
58326 	Male	        44.04%	
307          Other         0.23%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

717959	White	57.17%
386606	Black	30.79%
19369	Asian	1.54%
19025       Latino	1.52%
112814	Other	8.98%

687321	Female	54.73%
566168	Male	        45.09%	
2283	        Other	0.18%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Non-representative tiny samples and all that, but when my wife, son, and I voted on Monday afternoon I noticed the crowd was predominantly female, I'd guess at least 2/3.  And among young people (only a half dozen or so) they were all women except for my son.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From a Georgia Public Broadcasting political reporter who's also a data geek:

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1585709488119635968

[Adam Griffin]

Day 11 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 127,087 voters cast ballots Thursday, for a grand total of 1,382,860 votes.

Similar trends compared to Wednesday, albeit a larger drop-off in whites & greater increase in black and other non-white vote. White margin among the total electorate increased by 0.7 points (compared to 1.1 points between Tuesday & Wednesday).

If history is any indicator, then we're likely reaching the zenith of white EV share - typically the second week of EV is the strongest among white voters, while black voters post their best turnout rates in Weeks 1 & 3.

Breakdown of Thursday's voters:

Code:

77333 	White	60.85%
33636 	Black	26.47%
2261         Asian	1.78%
2060 	Latino	1.62%
11797 	Other	9.28%

71802	Female	56.50%
55058 	Male	        43.32%	
227          Other         0.18%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

795292	White	57.51%
420242	Black	30.39%
21630	Asian	1.56%
21085       Latino	1.52%
124611	Other	9.02%

759123	Female	54.90%
621226	Male	        44.92%	
2511	        Other	0.18%

[Aurelius]

How many of these registered Dems are demosaurs who never bothered to change their registration?

[GeorgiaModerate]

How many of these registered Dems are demosaurs who never bothered to change their registration?

Zero.  Georgia does not have party registration.

[Aurelius]

How many of these registered Dems are demosaurs who never bothered to change their registration?

Zero.  Georgia does not have party registration.

God I'm a moron. Somehow I transposed white/black into R/D.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

How many of these registered Dems are demosaurs who never bothered to change their registration?

Zero.  Georgia does not have party registration.

God I'm a moron. Somehow I transposed white/black into R/D.

That said what % of the total vote is Dem (including the dinosaurs) would be interesting.

[Ferguson97]

How many of these registered Dems are demosaurs who never bothered to change their registration?

Zero.  Georgia does not have party registration.

God I'm a moron. Somehow I transposed white/black into R/D.

I mean racial polarization in the South is so strong that it's basically the same thing

[Aurelius]

How many of these registered Dems are demosaurs who never bothered to change their registration?

Zero.  Georgia does not have party registration.

God I'm a moron. Somehow I transposed white/black into R/D.

I mean racial polarization in the South is so strong that it's basically the same thing

I've heard people say that in Mississippi you don't even need to count the votes, just count people as they walk into the polling booths.

[Ferguson97]

How many of these registered Dems are demosaurs who never bothered to change their registration?

Zero.  Georgia does not have party registration.

God I'm a moron. Somehow I transposed white/black into R/D.

I mean racial polarization in the South is so strong that it's basically the same thing

I've heard people say that in Mississippi you don't even need to count the votes, just count people as they walk into the polling booths.

I think I saw something that if Mississippi whites voted like even Wisconsin or Iowa whites did, it would be a blue state.

[Adam Griffin]

Day 12 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 150,815 voters cast ballots Friday, for a grand total of 1,533,675 votes.

Friday's batch was less white and less black than Thursday's, with the other 3 groupings gaining ground. Slightly less female than Thursday as well. Total vote drops below 30% black for the first time this cycle.

Breakdown of Friday's voters:

Code:

91263 	White	60.51%
39208 	Black	26.00%
2884         Asian	1.91%
2807 	Latino	1.86%
14653 	Other	9.72%

84217	Female	55.84%
66169 	Male	        43.87%	
429          Other         0.29%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

886555	White	57.81%
459450	Black	29.96%
24514	Asian	1.60%
23892       Latino	1.56%
139264	Other	9.07%

843330	Female	54.99%
687395	Male	        44.82%	
2950	        Other	0.19%

[kwabbit]

How many of these registered Dems are demosaurs who never bothered to change their registration?

Zero.  Georgia does not have party registration.

God I'm a moron. Somehow I transposed white/black into R/D.

That said what % of the total vote is Dem (including the dinosaurs) would be interesting.

The Dems are probably pulling in 60% of these less Black batches and probably got 75% on the first day. The Whites that are voting this early are probably more than 50-50 D. It'll drop every day though and the final few days may be slightly R leaning. Then e-day might be 30-70 R.

[SInNYC]

How many of these registered Dems are demosaurs who never bothered to change their registration?

Zero.  Georgia does not have party registration.

God I'm a moron. Somehow I transposed white/black into R/D.

I mean racial polarization in the South is so strong that it's basically the same thing

I've heard people say that in Mississippi you don't even need to count the votes, just count people as they walk into the polling booths.

I think I saw something that if Mississippi whites voted like even Wisconsin or Iowa whites did, it would be a blue state.

Why the "even"? Upper midwest whites vote more D than most of the country - they were second after New England until recent years when they fell behind the west coast.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

How many of these registered Dems are demosaurs who never bothered to change their registration?

Zero.  Georgia does not have party registration.

God I'm a moron. Somehow I transposed white/black into R/D.

I mean racial polarization in the South is so strong that it's basically the same thing

I've heard people say that in Mississippi you don't even need to count the votes, just count people as they walk into the polling booths.

I think I saw something that if Mississippi whites voted like even Wisconsin or Iowa whites did, it would be a blue state.

If Mississippi whites voted like Georgia Whites it would be a likely Democratic state depending on the black turnout obviously.

If Mississippi whites voted like those of WI or IA, it would be competing for the most Democratic state in the nation.

[Orwell]

How many of these registered Dems are demosaurs who never bothered to change their registration?

Zero.  Georgia does not have party registration.

God I'm a moron. Somehow I transposed white/black into R/D.

I mean racial polarization in the South is so strong that it's basically the same thing

I've heard people say that in Mississippi you don't even need to count the votes, just count people as they walk into the polling booths.

I think I saw something that if Mississippi whites voted like even Wisconsin or Iowa whites did, it would be a blue state.

Why the "even"? Upper midwest whites vote more D than most of the country - they were second after New England until recent years when they fell behind the west coast.

Recent years? I'd say the west coast was more Democratic than the midwest, remember Ohio and Indiana along with parts of Kentucky by 2000 at the earliest.

[Adam Griffin]

Day 13 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 100,644 voters cast ballots Saturday, for a grand total of 1,634,319 votes.

Breakdown of Saturday's voters:

Code:

54099 	White	53.75%
30613 	Black	30.42%
2807         Asian	2.79%
2541 	Latino	2.52%
10584 	Other	10.52%

56571	Female	56.21%
43746 	Male	        43.47%	
327          Other         0.32%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

940654	White	57.56%
490063	Black	29.99%
27321	Asian	1.67%
26433       Latino	1.62%
149848	Other	9.16%

899901	Female	55.06%
731141	Male	        44.74%	
3277	        Other	0.20%

I'm going to start posting my projections of what I believe the two-way EV looks like. Unfortunately, I do not have statewide voter file access this year, which otherwise would give me greater certainty in how the vote breaks down, but I have decent confidence that these figures are within the proverbial ballpark.

Estimated Georgia EV Composition:
57.81% D (944,800)
42.19% R (689,519)
Net Margin: D+255279

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Day 13 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 100,644 voters cast ballots Saturday, for a grand total of 1,634,319 votes.

Breakdown of Saturday's voters:

Code:

54099 White 53.75%
30613 Black 30.42%
2807         Asian 2.79%
2541 Latino 2.52%
10584 Other 10.52%

56571 Female 56.21%
43746 Male        43.47% 
327          Other         0.32%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

940654 White 57.56%
490063 Black 29.99%
27321 Asian 1.67%
26433       Latino 1.62%
149848 Other 9.16%

899901 Female 55.06%
731141 Male        44.74% 
3277        Other 0.20%

I'm going to start posting my projections of what I believe the two-way EV looks like. Unfortunately, I do not have statewide voter file access this year, which otherwise would give me greater certainty in how the vote breaks down, but I have decent confidence that these figures are within the proverbial ballpark.

Estimated Georgia EV Composition:
57.81% D (944,800)
42.19% R (689,519)
Net Margin: D+255279

Is this good or bad?

[Adam Griffin]

Day 13 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 100,644 voters cast ballots Saturday, for a grand total of 1,634,319 votes.

Breakdown of Saturday's voters:

Is this good or bad?

As far as yesterday (Saturday) composition goes, it wasn't as good for Dems as I had expected. I really thought the black share of the electorate would hit 32-33%, but given the unprecedented raw turnout, such probably was not feasible.

With regard to the total electorate, here are my thoughts:

My current projected EV margin: this 16-point projected Democratic lead currently falls smack dab in the middle of the final EV electorates for 2018 (Abrams +2) and 2020 (Biden +30); I don't have available data to suggest what the margins would have been for those years as of this point in the EV calendar. I think this is a strong position, given that a 2020-style mass ABM push was never going to be feasible this year, and the only way you could get a near 2:1 EV advantage in GA would be through such.

(All of the below are apples-to-apples comparisons through the second Saturday of EV)

Female share: lean good for Democrats. Slightly better than 2018 & slightly worse than 2020.

White share: great for Democrats. Weakest EV showing in Georgia's history; around 4 points lower than 2018 & around 2 points lower than 2020.

Black share: good for Democrats. One of the strongest EV showings in Georgia's history; around 1 point higher than 2018 & around 3 points higher than 2020.

Age: good for Republicans. Substantially fewer under-30s and more 65+ than in 2018 or 2020; around 2 points more 65+ than in 2018 (comparing presidential and midterms along generational lines is not necessarily informative given longstanding known gulfs between the two cycles).


All in all, things look quite good for Democrats - as of now. Typically, Week 2 is the strongest week for white participation in EV, while Weeks 1 & 3 are the strongest for black participation. If historical precedent manifests in Week 3, these trends will be cemented; the black & female shares of the EV electorate will grow by another 1-2 points, and older voters will continue to decline sharply as a share of the electorate.

[Continential]

What would a Democrat who supports Raffensperger be like since he is outperforming the rest of the GOP slate?

[Adam Griffin]

Just as a reference, here are the margins by vote type and composition for 2018 & 2020:

Code:

2020                 Margin		% of Vote
Election Day	Trump +23	19.5%
In-Person EV	Trump +7	        53.9%
Vote by Mail	Biden +30	        26.3%
Provisional	        Biden +30	          0.3%
------------------------------------------------
Election Day	Trump +22	19.8%
Early Vote	        Biden +6	        80.2%


2018		        Margin		% of Vote
Election Day	Kemp +5		46.0%
In-Person EV	Abrams +1	48.0%
Vote by Mail	Abrams +24	  5.7%
Provisional	        Abrams +44	  0.3%
------------------------------------------------
Election Day	Kemp +5		46.3%
Early Vote	        Abrams +2	53.7%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What would a Democrat who supports Raffensperger be like since he is outperforming the rest of the GOP slate?

1. Someone that follows a rule of "If the incumbent's fine, keep them." regardless of party ID.
2. A relative moderate who is satisfied with current election law in GA and views Raffensberger as a continuation thereof
3. One that sees Raffensberger as the one of the few good Rs because of his trump opposition, and sees an interest in empowering the 'sane side' of the GOP
4. A Trump/Johnson 2016 --> Biden 2020 voter that still votes GOP for some things

Honestly this isn't hard.

[SInNYC]

How many of these registered Dems are demosaurs who never bothered to change their registration?

Zero.  Georgia does not have party registration.

God I'm a moron. Somehow I transposed white/black into R/D.

I mean racial polarization in the South is so strong that it's basically the same thing

I've heard people say that in Mississippi you don't even need to count the votes, just count people as they walk into the polling booths.

I think I saw something that if Mississippi whites voted like even Wisconsin or Iowa whites did, it would be a blue state.

Why the "even"? Upper midwest whites vote more D than most of the country - they were second after New England until recent years when they fell behind the west coast.

Recent years? I'd say the west coast was more Democratic than the midwest, remember Ohio and Indiana along with parts of Kentucky by 2000 at the earliest.

I said upper midwest, not midwest. Most would classify MN/WI/MI and parts of IA as upper midwest.

In 2004, the only states Kerry won whites according to most exit polls were the New England states, MN, one of OR/WA and HI if I recall correctly.  IA/WI and the other OR/WA state were tied (and certainly within margins of exit polls). CA and NY weren't really as close as people might expect. CA whites shifted a lot in the Obama years, but parts of the upper midwest are still better for Ds.