Australia General Discussion 4.0: It ain’t easy under Albanese

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Well, a lot were sceptical that Labor could do this - the Albanese honeymoon is still going strong.

Even Labor strategists and insiders are apparently quite surprised by it too! Their briefings were getting very downcast today, as were hinted internal polls.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

There hasn't been a contested spill federally in either major party since 2018. Which is quite amazing if you look at the period from 2007 to 2018.

It helps that both parties have changed their rules in order to heighten the threshold for the calling of a spill (I think in the case of the Libs you’d need two-thirds of the party to sign onto a spill motion if the target was a sitting PM who’d won an election), unlike the good old days when, as far as I’m aware, all that was needed was for one disgruntled MP to strut into the party room, slap down a spill motion and you were on like Tony Abbott’s thong.

Old system was anyone can move a spill motion, a vote is called if there’s enough dissent that the leader thinks it necessary, then you need a majority of members in favour of the motion to vacate the leadership. This lead to the hilarious spectacle in February 2015 of Tony Abbott defeating an “empty chair” 61 votes to 39.

The current Liberal rules require 67% of caucus for PM, or 50% for an opposition leader. And the current Labor rules require 75% of caucus in favour for a PM, or 60% for an Opposition leader.

However these rules still don’t mean that a PM could endure without the support of caucus. It just eliminates the sudden midnight coups. Instead a PM with minority caucus support can be gradually forced to resign, then a nice slow orderly leadership ballot can be held.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

For the first time in 100 years the government will gain a by-election seat from the opposition. On a very solid 6% swing in a suburban representative seat. We‘ll see tomorrow, but this may be the beginning of the end for Dutton’s leadership.

Who could conceivably replace Dutton as leader (and do a better job)? I know he’s unpopular but I can’t think of a list of candidates that isn’t just listing of random senior shadow frontbenchers (Taylor, Tehan, Fletcher, Wood, Ley et al).

This exact reason is why a spill probably won’t happen this week. Dutton may be gone sooner, but I think the red line for his leadership is the Queensland election next October. Dutton’s got very close ties to the state party and their current leadership team, and it’s the one state election where he’ll actually get involved on the ground rather than exiled by the state branch. If the LNP can’t defeat Palaszczuk, or worse goes backwards, Dutton’s toast. There is no greater test of his leadership, and if he can’t translate federal success stateside then no one can have confidence in his chances at a federal election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Under a universal 6% swing the coalition would go down to 34 seats, down 24. At that point there would be almost as many Nats as there are Libs lol.

More directly alarming, the Liberals have 3 seats left in Greater Melbourne. All right next to Aston, all on margins under 2%. Carbon copy demographics, voter bases, state results and historical results. And the Liberals have a leader who is toxic in Melbourne and (per leaked internal polling) was the major drag on their vote in this by-election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Still licking his wounds from Aston, Dutton has decided now is the perfect time… to announce the Liberals are opposing the Voice.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

This isn't the sort of thing I relish pointing out, but it strikes me as instructive in this context that Peter Dutton is, simply put, a creepy-looking son of a bitch, and that for better or for worse people physically similar to him tend to struggle with electorates other than that of Florida.

Being a former Queensland cop and keeping all the mannerisms of one only reinforces the creepiness.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Not allowing at least a conscience vote seems to be a big mistake as it does not give them out. With allowing the conscience vote, you could say that the liberal party is a big tent for people with different social values that believe in the rule of law and economic stability yada yada.

But by having such a concrete position, you just seem like a party for conservatives who are reactionary and oppose a voice, which will not be popular in inner city and teal electorates.

Completely agree, staking a staunch position is bad politics. But it fits Dutton’s leadership style. The fundamental miscalculation is defeating a referendum doesn’t mean sh**t for opposition credibility.

But let’s be clear here, MPs are not bound to this decision. Bridget Archer is already confirmed to cross the floor, it’s pretty likely there’ll be more with her. Backbenchers will be free to campaign against the party line, just not too prominently. The decision merely binds shadow cabinet and directs party central funding.
Just think of how many times we shriek about being a broad church.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

This isn't the sort of thing I relish pointing out, but it strikes me as instructive in this context that Peter Dutton is, simply put, a creepy-looking son of a bitch, and that for better or for worse people physically similar to him tend to struggle with electorates other than that of Florida.

He and the party are comically aware of this btw. What a nice husband and wife photoshoot.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

This isn't the sort of thing I relish pointing out, but it strikes me as instructive in this context that Peter Dutton is, simply put, a creepy-looking son of a bitch, and that for better or for worse people physically similar to him tend to struggle with electorates other than that of Florida.

He and the party are comically aware of this btw. What a nice husband and wife photoshoot.

The self-awareness and sense of humor (or sense of something humor-adjacent) about it actually make me like Dutton slightly more, although that's not saying much at all.

He’s definitely got some sense of humour.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Still licking his wounds from Aston, Dutton has decided now is the perfect time… to announce the Liberals are opposing the Voice.

In but a day the party’s already tearing itself apart. The Tasmanian and WA Liberal branches are officially, publicly supporting the voice, it looks likely the NSW and ACT state branches will support it, the Queensland and Victorian Liberal leaders are pointedly refusing to back Dutton and are refusing to stake a position, the SA branch is divided as usual and the NT Country Liberals have lost their state director, angered Aboriginal members and possibly in crisis.

In Federal parliament moderate backbenchers are in uproar. Parliament resumes sitting in May for the budget, and while that’ll distract for a few weeks Dutton is facing a lot of strife when he returns to the party room.

Oh and Ken Wyatt, ScoMo’s Minister for Indigenous Australians and by far the most prominent and respected Aboriginal Liberal has quit the party in disgust.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/GutweinP/status/1643586774617444357

[AustralianSwingVoter]

More proof of the Liberal meltdown: Julian Leeser, the Shadow Attorney-General, has quit the frontbench.

Shadow Attorney-General *and Shadow Minister for Indigenous Australians. And if Dutton replaces him with Jacinta Price…..

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/JoshButler/status/1646714938759725063?cxt=HHwWjoDSseOgp9otAA...
I really do not understand exactly what the "No" campaign is trying to achieve. The messaging on it is just so terrible, and this literally seems like parody.

Pure basic fearmongering. And it's already making progress.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Excuse my ignorance, but what is this "Voice" referendum actually about?

Establishing a constitutionally entrenched independent advisory committee for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders. The political establishment didn’t really expect it but the Aboriginal community held a long convention at Uluru and decided they preferred this to a preamble or constitutional recognition.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

And if Dutton replaces him with Jacinta Price…..

screams

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I presume the difference between Jacinta and Jacinda is more than just one letter, then?

If you want to stick with the NZ analogy, Winston Peters as the Māori “anti-wokist” railing against co-governance isn’t entirely dissimilar to Senator Price.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I will say, hearing Warren Mundine whine about how the Voice was created by 'elites' is pretty ironic.

He'd still be a loyal Labor footsoldier if not for being snubbed by Bob Carr for Arbib's Senate vacancy back in 2012.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I presume the difference between Jacinta and Jacinda is more than just one letter, then?

Jacinta is really up against some very difficult issues:

https://fb.watch/j-5w3_CXyt/?mibextid=2Rb1fB

1) dear god she's in dire need of media training
2) wtf why did Speersy donate 18 fcking minutes of Insiders to this. we miss ya Barry.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I presume the difference between Jacinta and Jacinda is more than just one letter, then?

Jacinta is really up against some very difficult issues:

https://fb.watch/j-5w3_CXyt/?mibextid=2Rb1fB

1) dear god she's in dire need of media training
2) wtf why did Speersy donate 18 fcking minutes of Insiders to this. we miss ya Barry.

She answers questions in a very roundabout way.

I found Scott Morrison to be the best schmoozer of difficult questions in a media interview.

He had excellent technique regardless of what you think of his content.

Jacinta has such a difficult role it's hard to imagine if that role is worth the pay cheque. She is certainly learning rapidly at the moment and she can go back and watch her interviews and fix the anomalies.

The problem with ScoMo's technique is after a while everyone could see straight through it. Schmoozing is only successful in moderation, when you do it for every fcking question any journo asks you, well you look like a lying prick from marketing.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Victorian Liberals in chaos yet again... The Monica Deeming clusterfck continues to destabilise John Pesutto's leadership amidst legal threats, broken promises and poor minute taking.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Robodebt architect Stuart Roberts is to resign from parliament after being dragged through the Royal Commission. His seat of Fadden covers the northern Gold Coast, the established suburbs around Helensvale and the growth corridor of Coomera-Pimpama. It's held on a 10.6% margin, still stuck at 10% in 2007 and by all accounts should be a secure hold at the by-election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Labor is trying dirty tricks to nominate a non-government member for upper house president (breaking a century long precedent). The coalition is countering this with dirty tricks to hold up the debate for as long as humanly possible. The Nationals are playing stupid tricks by somehow losing control of Ben Franklin so he could take the plum position.

This triggered a second Nationals spill btw. Paul Toole rolled by Dugald Saunders 10 to 5 over his inability to control the caucus.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

YES

Tasmania (no Aboriginal population)
New South Wales
Victoria

NO

Queensland

UNDECIDED

Western Australia
South Australia

Tasmania has an Aboriginal population of 5.4% compared to only 3.2% nationally, so I’m not sure what you’re referring to there?

given that the island's own Aboriginal population was exterminated that's actually a bit odd, wonder why so many Aboriginals from elsewhere chose to move there? Seems like a bit of a backwater and has no large city.

It's pretty similar to Oklahoma's claimed native american population. In every other state there exists pretty strict rules for claiming aboriginality, but in Tasmania there culture and community was genocided. So many many white people who've been told their great great grandparent was half-aboriginal claim it on the census (a la Oklahoma). An excellent way of comparing this to other states is the tiny number of people who actually claim Indigenous services from the government.

The census count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders is an overcount in general. There's a large number of people who claim it on their census forms without actually meeting the requirements to claim aboriginal services or be recognised as part of the community by elders.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

State politics news:

In Victoria far-right MLC Moira Deeming has been officially expelled after stupidly threatening to sue the leader and party, thus uniting nearly everyone against her. Party Secretary Renee Heath has also been sacked and demoted to the backbenches for her part in stoking this conflict.

In Tasmania, two Liberal MPs have left the party to the crossbench, depriving the government of majority. They’ve claimed it’s over concerns of lack of consultation for the new AFL stadium, along with opposition to the voice and a power interconnection with Victoria. It’s important to note that both MPs are from the conservative faction, staunch supporters of Ferguson in the leadership battle. So there’s gossip this is a play at forcing a leadership spill.