Quinnipiac SHOCK POLL in GA: Warnock +10

[kwabbit]

Either the polling industry has collapsed to the point where it’s more accurate to ignore every poll or there is now a historic disconnect between presidential approval and voting intention.

There are definitely plenty of Biden disapproval/Warnock voters, but this poll has nearly 40% of Warnock’s voters in that category. Georgia isn’t the place where Dobbs should hurt the GOP very much either. Are they getting droves of Romney-Trump voters?

[kwabbit]

I wonder if they weight by region. Might be hard to reach the rural folk so Atlanta could be oversampled.

[kwabbit]

Either the polling industry has collapsed to the point where it’s more accurate to ignore every poll or there is now a historic disconnect between presidential approval and voting intention.

There are definitely plenty of Biden disapproval/Warnock voters, but this poll has nearly 40% of Warnock’s voters in that category. Georgia isn’t the place where Dobbs should hurt the GOP very much either. Are they getting droves of Romney-Trump voters?

I mean this is clearly true to an extent, because not a single poll has shown Dems losing the GCB by 27 points.

Trump's approval ratings were similarly terrible, and Republicans "only" lost the congressional vote by 8%.

Well, you’d expect the Democrats to be losing the GCB by 5+ points given Biden’s approvals and for states to reflect that. Not a 10pt Dem swing from 2020 even as he is sitting at Trump numbers. He’s actually worse than Trump was at this time and almost monotonically losing approval as his presidency moves forward.

Presidential approval is a leading indicator, so maybe things will align as expected, but right now there’s something off.

[kwabbit]

I wonder if they weight by region. Might be hard to reach the rural folk so Atlanta could be oversampled.

Polls in 2018 and 2020 were quite accurate in Georgia so this would be a very new and surprising development.

Anyways, this matches what I'm seeing on the ground. Cobb and north Fulton are filled to the brim with moderate ticket spitting white folks. Of course it doesn't hurt Warnock is a great candidate, fundraiser and workhorse while Walker has serious brain damage.

I don’t doubt that this poll may be reasonably accurate for North Fulton or Cobb, that’s kind of my point. My question is whether Atlanta suburbs are being over sampled since they are the type of place to have Biden disapproval Warnock supporting voters. Polls in Georgia have been accurate but Quinnipiac was a major exception, with a Biden +7 as I recall.

[kwabbit]

Either the polling industry has collapsed to the point where it’s more accurate to ignore every poll or there is now a historic disconnect between presidential approval and voting intention.

There are definitely plenty of Biden disapproval/Warnock voters, but this poll has nearly 40% of Warnock’s voters in that category. Georgia isn’t the place where Dobbs should hurt the GOP very much either. Are they getting droves of Romney-Trump voters?

I mean this is clearly true to an extent, because not a single poll has shown Dems losing the GCB by 27 points.

Trump's approval ratings were similarly terrible, and Republicans "only" lost the congressional vote by 8%.

Well, you’d expect the Democrats to be losing the GCB by 5+ points given Biden’s approvals and for states to reflect that. Not a 10pt Dem swing from 2020 even as he is sitting at Trump numbers. He’s actually worse than Trump was at this time and almost monotonically losing approval as his presidency moves forward.

Presidential approval is a leading indicator, so maybe things will align as expected, but right now there’s something off.

that's the point though - it's not. it may have been in the past, especially when approval was directly linked, like in Trumps case, b/c his die-hards always say they supported him no matter what. Biden is a different beast though, because many Ds or D-leaners say they 'disapprove' for a multitude of reasons but will still be voting D this year. that's why prez approval is just not as big of a factor IMO this year

again, just look at the 18-34 #s i posted above. young people 'disapprove' of Biden for many reasons. but they don't disapprove enough to vote for Rs.

Trump’s approval was a useful indicator. Trump’s approval was around -10 and the GCB was +8 for Dems. It’s not like Trump was -20 and the Republicans were winning swing states in a blowout. In fact the opposite happened.