I think Manchin would only be picked as a Hail Mary if she is trailing and only getting ~25% of white men in her polling. However, the odds that she will need to Sista Souljah the social justice activists have gone up with this week's events at Yale and Mizzou. We'll see.
I also forgot to mention Booker and Patrick, both of whom could help assure continued Obama-level black support and turnout. Booker probably dominates Patrick here because Patrick barely made it out of 2010 in a 60% Obama state and he now works for Bain Capital, which could get very awkward if Republicans run Obama's anti-Romney ads against Patrick.
Isn't Booker too Wall Street-friendly for the base?
That would be a risk. But if she wants a black Dem who has won outside of a VRA district, she is unfortunately down to those two options.
Anthony Foxx was Mayor of Charlotte, North Carolina and Obama's Secretary of Transportation. He's as qualified as Castro, but comes from a swing state.