Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[DL]

When you see a province-wide IVR poll with regional breakouts - its almost guaranteed that those regions are based on area codes. This is because a province wide poll likely includes a chunk of cell phone numbers and the only way you can know where those people live is by area code. So I am 99% certain that when Forum refers to "northern Ontario" they actually mean area codes 807/705 - and 705 and actually comes as far south as Peterborough. Its also very likely that their definition of 905 is literally the 905 area code which includes all of Hamilton-Niagara.

[Krago]

Here is the first draft of my letter to the Toronto Star's Public Editor, Kathy English.  Please let me know what you think.



publiced@thestar.ca

Dear Ms. English,

I wish to complain about the Seat Projections that accompanied the recent Forum Research provincial election poll in today's Star.

Forum's latest polling figures show almost no change from the 2011 provincial election results:

• 2011 Actual - Lib 38%, PC 35%, NDP 23%, Green 3%
• 2014 Forum Poll - Lib 38%, PC 35%, NDP 21%, Green 5%

Yet, somehow, Forum projects that the Liberals would gain 15 seats from the opposition parties:

• 2011 Actual -Lib 53, PC 37, NDP 17
• 2014 Forum Projection - Lib 68, PC 26, NDP 13

This is mathematically impossible.  It also follows the Forum poll released on May 3rd, that showed the Liberals with a 48-44 edge in seats despite a 5% PC lead in support.

These projections are so bad that they bring both Forum Research and the Toronto Star into disrepute, and should be stopped immediately.  I would also ask that you publish the methodology used by Forum to produce these seat projections, so that it may be independently reviewed.

Sincerely,

[Hatman 🍁]

Excellent stuff, Krago.

When you see a province-wide IVR poll with regional breakouts - its almost guaranteed that those regions are based on area codes. This is because a province wide poll likely includes a chunk of cell phone numbers and the only way you can know where those people live is by area code. So I am 99% certain that when Forum refers to "northern Ontario" they actually mean area codes 807/705 - and 705 and actually comes as far south as Peterborough. Its also very likely that their definition of 905 is literally the 905 area code which includes all of Hamilton-Niagara.

Forum's regions are obvious, we're talking about Ipsos, which conducts their polls online. They may not even have phone numbers for their panel.

[Citizen Hats]

I agree with much of the content of that letter, though forum's regionals are a bit different than 2011, to note by share of 2011 vote

(PC: NDP: LIB: GRN)

• Ontario:0.99: 0.92: 1.01: 1.71
• Toronto: 1.41: 0.92: 0.82: 1.68
• 905: 0.79: 1.01: 1.18: 1.06
• North: 1.01: 0.74: 1.21: 1.07
• Southwest: 0.98: 0.88: 0.90: 3.13
• East: 1.05: 0.90: 0.99: 0.95

With the Liberals polling above their vote in the 905 and the Tories polling above their vote in the City, and the North being wonky, you're bound to see different seat totals. 

That being said, I have no belief that they would be Forum different

[Citizen Hats]

On closer inspection, it appears that a lot of Ipsos' map oddities are a result of odd shaped FSAs. 

look at N0B, for instance https://www.google.com/maps/place/Ontario+N0B/@43.513311,-80.4542224,9z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x882b8d2cd0a914eb:0x857e9407ecd2e668

[Hatman 🍁]

On closer inspection, it appears that a lot of Ipsos' map oddities are a result of odd shaped FSAs. 

look at N0B, for instance https://www.google.com/maps/place/Ontario+N0B/@43.513311,-80.4542224,9z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x882b8d2cd0a914eb:0x857e9407ecd2e668

Still no excuse for putting L0J in the 416.

[toaster]

The PC candidate in Timmins-James Bay doesn't even speak French...

Oy vey.

If he wants to win, he needs to not only carry Timmins, but by a large margin. Everything outside of the city is francophone and native.

That said, people are tired of Gilles. I don't blame them. He's a good MP, but it's been 24 years. He'll get just under 50%.

Charlie Angus doesn't speak French though.

Federally, Kapuskasing, Hearst and the surrounding Francophone communities are not part of Timmins-James Bay.  Provincially, they are. 

[Hatman 🍁]

The PC candidate in Timmins-James Bay doesn't even speak French...

Oy vey.

If he wants to win, he needs to not only carry Timmins, but by a large margin. Everything outside of the city is francophone and native.

That said, people are tired of Gilles. I don't blame them. He's a good MP, but it's been 24 years. He'll get just under 50%.

Charlie Angus doesn't speak French though.

Federally, Kapuskasing, Hearst and the surrounding Francophone communities are not part of Timmins-James Bay.  Provincially, they are. 

Good point, but Timmins has some French enclaves.

[MaxQue]

The PC candidate in Timmins-James Bay doesn't even speak French...

Oy vey.

If he wants to win, he needs to not only carry Timmins, but by a large margin. Everything outside of the city is francophone and native.

That said, people are tired of Gilles. I don't blame them. He's a good MP, but it's been 24 years. He'll get just under 50%.

Charlie Angus doesn't speak French though.

Federally, Kapuskasing, Hearst and the surrounding Francophone communities are not part of Timmins-James Bay.  Provincially, they are. 

Good point, but Timmins has some French enclaves.

My father had to work in Timmins last week and he had no trouble when talking French. He also reports lots of signs for Gilles Brison, which he presumed to be for NDP (signs being orange).

[MaxQue]

The PC candidate in Timmins-James Bay doesn't even speak French...

Oy vey.

If he wants to win, he needs to not only carry Timmins, but by a large margin. Everything outside of the city is francophone and native.

That said, people are tired of Gilles. I don't blame them. He's a good MP, but it's been 24 years. He'll get just under 50%.

Charlie Angus doesn't speak French though.

One could hope, than given the changes in the caucus caused by 2011 election, than he is taking French courses.

[mileslunn]

Ipsos out with 39% PC, 30% Liberal, and 24% NDP, while amongst certain to vote its 43% PC, 31% Liberal, and 22% NDP.  Talk about polls being all over the map.  My guess is a lot of people dislike both the PCs and the Liberals so it really depends on where their focus is at that moment.  The one common theme seems to be the regional breakdowns.

416 - All polls put the Liberals in front, but interestingly enough most put the PCs in the high 20s which is actually not that bad for them.  Harper got only 31% in Toronto last federal election so considering they are likely under 15% in most downtown ridings that is enough to possibly win some suburban ridings.  The NDP vote is quite concentrated so they can still win seats even in the teens.

905 bet - All over the map, so who knows.  That being said my gut instinct tells me its probably fairly close and any poll showing more than a 10 point lead is probably off.

Southwestern Ontario - Tories out in front being in the high 30s to low 40s while except today's forum the NDP is generally fighting it out for second while Liberals struggling here.

Northern Ontario - Polls a bit messy here as some include Central Ontario (where PCs are strong) while others are only the True Northern Ontario where they are weak and the NDP by contrast is strong.  My gut instinct tells me south of North Bay it will be mostly if not entirely PC while north of North Bay it will be mostly NDP with a few Liberal ridings.

Eastern Ontario - Thats the only region where the PCs consistently poll over 40% and a few even put them above 50% (I don't think they will crack 50% as almost half the population lives in Ottawa so that will push them down a bit) while Liberals in the 30s and clear second place and NDP in teens.

[mileslunn]

I agree with much of the content of that letter, though forum's regionals are a bit different than 2011, to note by share of 2011 vote

(PC: NDP: LIB: GRN)

• Ontario:0.99: 0.92: 1.01: 1.71
• Toronto: 1.41: 0.92: 0.82: 1.68
• 905: 0.79: 1.01: 1.18: 1.06
• North: 1.01: 0.74: 1.21: 1.07
• Southwest: 0.98: 0.88: 0.90: 3.13
• East: 1.05: 0.90: 0.99: 0.95

With the Liberals polling above their vote in the 905 and the Tories polling above their vote in the City, and the North being wonky, you're bound to see different seat totals. 

That being said, I have no belief that they would be Forum different

There is no way in Hell the PCs are doing better in the 416 than 905.  Using the 416 results, the PCs would be in very good position to make a breakthrough as lets remember unlike the Liberals they will get under 15% in most downtown ridings so fewer wasted votes.  By contrast the 905 results would result in a Liberal sweep.  My guess is the PCs are probably polling under 32% in the 416 while over 29% in the 905.

[Citizen Hats]

my projection had them winning seats in Town while getting nearly wipped out in the 905

[RogueBeaver]

Hudak unveiled more policies today. Scrap planned raises for teachers and early childhood educators, end post-secondary tuition breaks and the seniors' home renovation tax credit. No loosening of liquor laws.

More poll divergence: Ipsos has 39/30/24 EV and 43/31/22 LV. Some interesting regional stuff like Tories dominating Central and 905, 3-way race in SW and Tories rising in 416.

[Hash]

No money for kids, teachers, seniors or post-sec students, but there's definitely money for tax breaks for TEH JOB CREATORS!

So the job creation will mostly be some jobs in Mickey Dees or Timmies.

[MaxQue]

No money for kids, teachers, seniors or post-sec students, but there's definitely money for tax breaks for TEH JOB CREATORS!

dear lord

Well, kids and teachers aren't giving money to PC, you see.

[Holmes]

His government will be a disaster. Well, at the very least, I'm on my way out of the province anyway.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Forum Research has got nothing on Today's Chanakya.

[RogueBeaver]

Today's itineraries.

[Krago]

Four weeks to go, here is the lay of the land.  I have put together a spreadsheet comparing the riding-by-riding predictions from ThreeHundredEight.com and the Election Prediction Project.

EPP vs 308_15MAY2014.xls

Enjoy.

[DL]

According to Ekos:

Ontario Liberals - 37%
PCs - 30%
NDP - 21%
Greens - 7%
Other - 5%

I tend to believe this much more than I believe the Ipsos poll...though I think there is ZERO chance that Green/Other will get 12% given that in 2011 Green/Other was 4% and most ridings don't even have any "others" to vote for.

[RogueBeaver]

I trust Nanos, Angus-Reid, Ipsos.

[Citizen Hats]

I trust no one

[DL]

I trust Nanos, Angus-Reid, Ipsos.

In BC nanos did not polling but Angus Reid and Ipsos did media polls based on online panels and were both wildly off

[RogueBeaver]

I know. In the same vein, Angus-Reid was most accurate in BC 2009. EKOS and Forum were off on QC 2012 but accurate last month. Grenier notes that both Forum and Ipsos agree on major Tory gains in Toronto.