The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Alcon]

Interesting to see non-Hispanic white absolute numbers be static or dropping in most states from 2008.

Ah, there must be a lot of black and Hispanic Republicans.  OH, NC, and IA (barely) are closer than 2008, so far.

Well, that's a weird way of making that inference.

[Alcon]

   The SUSA poll that came out yesterday of Ohio had 18% of total voters saying they had already voted. 

Interesting.  Since a previous OH poll had 19% already voted, it looks 1% of Ohioans chased down their local mailman, grabbed the mail bag off his shoulder or broke into his van, found the envelope they already mailed, and took it back home with them.

I think the pollsters will need a screening question set for "likely un-voters".

I'm hoping you're just kidding around, because...margin of error.

[Alcon]

A relative drop is not an absolute one. More Democratic ballots were received yesterday than Republicans, as has been the case all week. Democrats gained about a net 1500 votes this week.

Actually, that is wrong.  The gap has been closing all week.  Branson initially posted how great the D's were doing.  They are not anymore. 

What part of that is wrong?

[Alcon]

A relative drop is not an absolute one. More Democratic ballots were received yesterday than Republicans, as has been the case all week. Democrats gained about a net 1500 votes this week.

Actually, that is wrong.  The gap has been closing all week.  Branson initially posted how great the D's were doing.  They are not anymore. 

What part of that is wrong?

That the D's are gaining.  The gap has been closing, long term.

He said the Democrats have been gaining in raw votes.  You said "Actually, that is wrong," and then noted that their proportion of the ballots has decreased.  Those are different things.  You are awful.

[Alcon]

A relative drop is not an absolute one. More Democratic ballots were received yesterday than Republicans, as has been the case all week. Democrats gained about a net 1500 votes this week.

Actually, that is wrong.  The gap has been closing all week.  Branson initially posted how great the D's were doing.  They are not anymore.  

What part of that is wrong?

That the D's are gaining.  The gap has been closing, long term.

He said the Democrats have been gaining in raw votes.  You said "Actually, that is wrong," and then noted that their proportion of the ballots has decreased.  Those are different things.  You are awful.

Yeah, JJ stated it poorly, but IF he's correct the point remains Democrats will reap a lower net vote total from pre-election day voting than in 2008.

Absolutely.  Decreasing proportionally below 2008 numbers is bad for Democrats, unless it's just a matter of shifting Election Day GOP votes to GOP early voters.  Considering that would likely reflect higher enthusiasm among Republicans of all stripes, including sporadic voters, that's good for the GOP.

A net increase in votes with a decrease in proportional share is probably bad for the Democrats.  J. J. is right about that -- his "correction" was just wrong.

[Alcon]

Ohio updated this morning, 11.1% early voting in.  Looks like PPP, Marist and SUSA are still not credible been plenty of time now for the results to catch up...... 

Keep lauding those polls

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Last week Obama had 74% of the early vote. Now it's 66%. People must be changing their early votes, lol.

I hope you don't actually think that's how polls work.

Are all counties reporting totals?