Democratic Freak States Holy Saturday results thread (1st caucuses begin @1pmET)

[IceSpear]

If he can make margins this big in these states + CA + most of the remaining states -MD and NY, then we might be onto something.

No-way he is making these margins other places. And honestly does not need to either. He needs 60%+ in CA & he will still get 6-7 big wins.

I don't think he can win but theoretically he has to beat her (maybe narrowly - not lose) in NY, PA, NJ, PR, MD which I don't see happening

https://www.change.org/p/the-young-turks-dnc-debate-on-the-young-turks
If somehow the candidates get an April debate on The Young Turks, Bernie's popular vote could easily increase by over 5% in all the states thereafter.

And if I grew wings I could fly.

[IceSpear]

Man, caucuses suck. Good thing they're nearly over after today.

[IceSpear]

Someone on twitter is claiming the 98% Sanders thing is a lie.

https://twitter.com/withmeyourheart/status/713826069296451584

1484 is the number of the precinct, they say. The actual result is 28-11. If people would stop lying and posting bad information, we would maybe be able to have reasonable analysis.

I thought NC taught you not to take random stuff Bernie people on Twitter/Reddit say as gospel.

[IceSpear]

I've noticed that 538 isn't covering these contests. Why no love for the Pacific states, Nate?

538 dislikes Sanders. They think the Dem contest is already over and show more interest in the GOP race because Trump.

lol. They don't "dislike Sanders", they just accept the reality that the race is over.

[IceSpear]

I've noticed that 538 isn't covering these contests. Why no love for the Pacific states, Nate?

538 dislikes Sanders. They think the Dem contest is already over and show more interest in the GOP race because Trump.

lol. They don't "dislike Sanders", they just accept the reality that the race is over.

lol. Sanders gets landslide victories in Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Washington, with likely victories in Hawaii and Wisconsin.

THE RACE IS OVER, NOTHING TO LOOK AT FOLKS.

Uh, I meant the overall outcome is already decided.

[IceSpear]

I've noticed that 538 isn't covering these contests. Why no love for the Pacific states, Nate?

538 dislikes Sanders. They think the Dem contest is already over and show more interest in the GOP race because Trump.

lol. They don't "dislike Sanders", they just accept the reality that the race is over.

lol. Sanders gets landslide victories in Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Washington, with likely victories in Hawaii and Wisconsin.

THE RACE IS OVER, NOTHING TO LOOK AT FOLKS.

Clinton won landslide victories in West Virginia, Kentucky, Puerto Rico and upset Obama in Indiana, South Dakota.
Why do people insist the race is over???

For a political website, many people here seriously lack a sense of perspective. I'd imagine some of the posters here get whiplash from the amount of times they've swung back and forth from "Hillary is inevitable!" to "Sanders has a real chance!" The overall fundamentals of this race have not changed a bit since January.

[IceSpear]

I've noticed that 538 isn't covering these contests. Why no love for the Pacific states, Nate?

538 dislikes Sanders. They think the Dem contest is already over and show more interest in the GOP race because Trump.

lol. They don't "dislike Sanders", they just accept the reality that the race is over.

Not necessarily, even by their math. Right now, he's at 89% of his delegate goal according to 538. After today, he'll likely be at 91-92%, unless something surprising happens in Hawaii.  Granted, he still has the Superdelegate problem, but that could change.

Using a percentage really downplays the extent he is in the hole. According to 538, after tonight he "should" be down about 50 delegates if he was on track. Instead, he'll be down by 230+.

[IceSpear]

I've noticed that 538 isn't covering these contests. Why no love for the Pacific states, Nate?

538 dislikes Sanders. They think the Dem contest is already over and show more interest in the GOP race because Trump.

lol. They don't "dislike Sanders", they just accept the reality that the race is over.

lol. Sanders gets landslide victories in Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Washington, with likely victories in Hawaii and Wisconsin.

THE RACE IS OVER, NOTHING TO LOOK AT FOLKS.

Is it not? After tonight, Hillarys lead dips to 240ish delegates. Which states does Sanders have left where he can make up such a huge delegate difference?

Hillary is overwhelmingly likely to win the nomination, but the race is not over. Its not like the rest of the states don't matter, they do matter, they matter because they are a measure of how strong the progressive movement is within the Democratic party. It matters because there's a wing that will probably be called the 'Sanders' wing that should be much more influential then they were in the past.  A strong finish in this primary season can mean a lot, even if he's not the nominee.

I think you took "the race is over" a little too seriously. It is over in the sense that Hillary is going to be the nominee, but you are correct that a lot can still be learned from the remaining states. But to people who only care about an overall victor, it makes sense to have tuned out after March 15th. That said, you would expect 538 to be interested in patterns and results even if they won't effect the overall outcome, given the type of site it is.

[IceSpear]

Are we ever going to be able to get a geographic breakdown of Alaska?

[IceSpear]

North Dakota is NOT a caucus. It's a primary.

So was New Hampshire. Sanders will still win ND by about 60-40, not that it will change anything.

Everybody mention North Dakota is a caucus. I just corrected it.
WTF that has to do with New Hampshire and Sanders dude?

Source? The NYT and Ballotpedia says it's a caucus.

[IceSpear]

If Sanders runs +60D across today's three states, he'll be 75 delegates under 538's target for him in a 50-50 race.  Doesn't seem like a lot, but there aren't enough contests left for him to narrow that margin by overperforming.

Hillary is also way ahead of her target though. According to 538, he "should" be trailing by about 50 delegates after tonight. Instead he'll be trailing by 230-240.

[IceSpear]

My fb feed is filled with "BERNIE ABOUT TO BEAT THE SHRILL"

"THE WITCH IS DEAD AFTER TONIGHT"

Ugh

Can you report back on their reactions when Hillary clinches the nomination?

[IceSpear]

If Sanders runs +60D across today's three states, he'll be 75 delegates under 538's target for him in a 50-50 race.  Doesn't seem like a lot, but there aren't enough contests left for him to narrow that margin by overperforming.

Hillary is also way ahead of her target though. According to 538, he "should" be trailing by about 50 delegates after tonight. Instead he'll be trailing by 230-240.

I must be doing my math horribly wrong, but I calculated that

Sanders after tonight: 1054
Where they say he should be after tonight in 50-50 race: 1130

Clinton after tonight:  1250
Where they say she should be:  1175

Where are you getting the after tonight totals? 538 had him down 296 before tonight.

[IceSpear]

If Sanders runs +60D across today's three states, he'll be 75 delegates under 538's target for him in a 50-50 race.  Doesn't seem like a lot, but there aren't enough contests left for him to narrow that margin by overperforming.

Hillary is also way ahead of her target though. According to 538, he "should" be trailing by about 50 delegates after tonight. Instead he'll be trailing by 230-240.

I must be doing my math horribly wrong, but I calculated that

Sanders after tonight: 1054
Where they say he should be after tonight in 50-50 race: 1130

Clinton after tonight:  1250
Where they say she should be:  1175

Where are you getting the after tonight totals? 538 had him down 296 before tonight.

I meant to have him net 60, running 40 over their expectation of him netting 20, clearly I did it wrong, disregard

Yeah, I think you might have been overcomplicating it. 538 says he "should" be -45 after tonight, instead he'll be -235 (assuming he nets 60.)

Of course, 538 isn't exactly gospel. But there's also no way a realistic "Sanders path" would've had him trailing by hundreds of delegates at this point.

[IceSpear]

Could Hawaii be any slower?

[IceSpear]

Washington delegates are probably 73-27 with 1 way too close to call.

So +46/47. Bernie would need to win CA by double digits to match that delegate haul in another state. Crazy. Hillary's highest is +72 in Texas.