Republicans and New England House Seats

[Landslide Lyndon]

You really ought to wait for re-districting. It's possible that only NH will have any GOP opportunities and it's doubtful Bass can defeat Kuster again.

You're saying that there might be gerrymandering in Connecticut?

They have some legal limits to what they can do, but within those limits they're fairly well gerrymandered right now. They only need to undo that to drastically reduce the GOP's chances in the 5th.

Considerable parts of Bass' district is headed Vermont way. It's exceedingly unlikely that it can ever be a safe GOP seat again, though if 2012 turns out favorable and/or he gets a weak opponent, he certainly could hang on. Thus the most plausible answers are 0 and 1. I went with 1.

I agree with Lewis. Bass is just one tier above certified one-termers like Allen West.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I agree with Lewis. Bass is just one tier above certified one-termers like Allen West.

Bass is several tiers above, considering that this is his seventh term. Non-consecutive, yes, but still. Seventh term.

For 2012 to be as ugly for him as 2010, you need to (ironically!) assume 2012 will be as ugly an anti-incumbent year as 2010 was. Bass isn't safe, but the assumptions that he's a goner require a number of different planets to align.

Bass ran an abysmal campaign in 2010 (again) and almost lost to an opponent with no prior elective experience and with far less money. He represents a D+3 district and he is ethically challenged.
I don't know what else he must do to be considered very vulnerable.