Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021 (user search)

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Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021 (search mode)

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Topic: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021 (Read 17114 times)

jaichind
Atlas Star

Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #75 on: June 07, 2021, 03:47:27 AM »

With 73.7% of the vote counted in PREP for Congressional vote we have (all non-NULL vote share)

Ahead Vote share (non-Null)
MORENA-PVEM-PT 183 43.96%
PAN-PRI-PRD 110 41.77%
MC 7 7.20%

Compared to my back-of-the-envelope projections it is

Ahead My projection
MORENA 65 64
PVEM 1 0
MORENA-PVEM-PT 117 120
PAN 35 31
PRI 11 6
PRD 0 0
PAN-PRI-PRD 64 75
MC 7 4

Vote by party (and projected PR seats)

PAN 19.68% 42
PRI 18.50% 40
PRD 3.58% 8
PVEM 5.22% 11
PT 3.10% 7
MC 7.20% 15
MORENA 35.66% 77
PES 2.64%
RSP 1.73%
FxM 2.61%

This gives us current seat count

MORENA-PVEM-PT 278
PAN-PRI-PRD 200
MC 22

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jaichind
Atlas Star

Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #76 on: June 07, 2021, 06:05:48 AM »

With 82.5% of the vote counted in PREP for Congressional vote we have (all non-NULL vote share)

Ahead Vote share (non-Null)
MORENA-PVEM-PT 185 43.99%
PAN-PRI-PRD 108 41.63%
MC 7 7.24%

Compared to my back-of-the-envelope projections it is

Ahead My projection
MORENA 65 64
PVEM 1 0
MORENA-PVEM-PT 119 120
PAN 34 31
PRI 11 6
PRD 0 0
PAN-PRI-PRD 63 75
MC 7 4

Vote by party (and projected PR seats)

PAN 19.48% 42
PRI 18.52% 40
PRD 3.63% 8
PVEM 5.29% 11
PT 3.14% 7
MC 7.24% 15
MORENA 35.57% 77
PES 2.71%
RSP 1.74%
FxM 2.60%

This gives us current seat count

MORENA-PVEM-PT 280
PAN-PRI-PRD 198
MC 22

MC and PES are both gaining ground. PES might have an outside shot at making 3% although I doubt it. I expect MC to gain a PR seat from MORENA on current trends but I suspect these seat projections will be what roughly takes place.

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jaichind
Atlas Star

Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #77 on: June 07, 2021, 07:45:37 AM »

Governor races update (too lazy to strip out NULL)

Baja California (71.3% in)

MORENA-PVEM-PT 48.24%
PES 31.33% !!
PAN-PRI-PRD 11.68%

PAN-PRI-PRD candidate is an independent so the PAN vote it seems went to PES

Baja California Sur (92.3% in)
MORENA-PT 46.67%
PAN-PRI-PRD 39.95%
PVEM 3.13%

MORENA won despite being behind in the polls most of the campaign

Campeche (59.5% in)
MORENA-PT 32.81%
MC 31.98%
PRI-PAN-PRD 30.97%

Very close 3 way race. Have been fairly stable throughout the count. MORENA-PT should have this.

Chihuahua (67.3% in)
PAN-PRD 44.42%
MORENA-PT-PANAL 30.15%
MC 12.49%
PRI 6.85%

PRI vote tactically voted for PAN-PRD to defeat MORENA

Colima (87.9% in)
MORENA-PANAL 32.94%
PRI-PAN-PRD 27.83%
MC 18.87%
PVEM 12.96%

Very splintered vote. I wonder if PVEM running was a ploy to capture the anti-MORENA vote and deny it to PRI-PAN-PRD.

Guerrero (31.3% in)
MORENA 46.81%
PRI-PRD 38.25%
PVEM-PT 4.51%

Daughter of controversial original MORENA candidate wins

Michoacán (85.9% in)
MORENA-PT 41.58%
PRD-PRI-PAN 38.98%
PVEM 5.53%
MC 3.89%
PES 3.24%

Somewhat closer than expected but MORENA-PT goes on to win.

Nayarit (71.6% in)
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL 49.53%
MC 20.73%
PAN-PRI-PRD 16.99%
MLN 4.60% (local party)

Poor showing by ruling PAN. It seems a good part of the PAN-PRI-PRD base went over to MC.

Nuevo León (90.1% in)
MC 36.59%
PRI-PRD 28.23%
PAN 18.06%
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL 14.07%

Inability for PRI-PRD and PAN to come together allowed MC to win

Querétaro (site is down but it is clear PAN have won)

San Luis Potosí (48.0% in)
PVEM-PT 36.62%
PAN-PRI-PRD 33.55%
MORENA 11.54%
RSP 8.86%

PVEM-PT seems on track to win. Anti-MORENA sentiment is strong here so the ruse of running PVEM-PT separately seems to have worked. It seems like some of the PAN-PRI-PRD vote went over to RSP.

Sinaloa (51.0% in)
MORENA-PAS 56.40%
PRI-PAN-PRD 33.25%

PAS is a local party

Sonora (86.1% in)
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL 51.39%
PRI-PAN-PRD 35.88%
MC 4.73%

Tlaxcala (35.6% in)
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL-PES 47.75%
PRI-PAN-PRD 37.79%
RSP 6.29%

Zacatecas (87.6% in)
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL 48.61%
PRI-PAN-PRD 38.26%
MC 2.95%

It seems other than Campeche the winners are clear. Even in Campeche MORENA-PT are heavy favorites to win. Overall MORENA overperformed in the governor races. It pulled off an upset in Baja California Sur, won all the tossups, got PVEM to win San Luis Potosí beating back PAN-PRI-PRD and in Nuevo León MC won versus PRI-PRD. Only in Chihuahua where the PAN PRI split could have delivered the governorship to MORENA were MORENA's hopes dashed.

One takeaway from these races are that PRI voters seems to be willing to transfer its votes or tactically vote for PAN but the PAN vote is far more independent and not as willing to transfer its vote to PRI.

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jaichind
Atlas Star

Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #78 on: June 07, 2021, 10:12:22 AM »

Quote from: Octosteel on June 07, 2021, 08:13:12 AM

So did that Miss Mexico lady end up winning her race?

She was the PAN-PRI-PRD backed independent candidate for governor in Baja California. She was beaten badly by MORENA as the PAN vote shifted to PES.

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jaichind
Atlas Star

Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #79 on: June 07, 2021, 11:03:17 AM »

With 93% of the vote counted in PREP for Congressional vote we have (all non-NULL vote share)

Ahead Vote share (non-Null)
MORENA-PVEM-PT 183 44.13%
PAN-PRI-PRD 110 41.32%
MC 7 7.24%

Compared to my back-of-the-envelope projections it is

Ahead My projection
MORENA 64 64
PVEM 1 0
MORENA-PVEM-PT 118 120
PAN 33 31
PRI 11 6
PRD 0 0
PAN-PRI-PRD 66 75
MC 7 4

Vote by party (and projected PR seats)

PAN 19.17% 41
PRI 18.40% 40
PRD 3.75% 8
PVEM 5.54% 12
PT 3.29% 7
MC 7.24% 16
MORENA 35.30% 76
PES 2.81%
RSP 1.81%
FxM 2.59%

This gives us current seat count

MORENA-PVEM-PT 278
PAN-PRI-PRD 199
MC 23

PES vote share still rising. Most likely will not make it to the 3% threshold.

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jaichind
Atlas Star

Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #80 on: June 07, 2021, 11:31:37 AM »

Quote from: Mike88 on June 07, 2021, 11:08:57 AM

Quote from: jaichind on June 07, 2021, 11:03:17 AM

You're projecting 279 for Morena/PVEM/PT, 201 for PAN/PRI/PRD and 20 for MC, right?

I have 23 for MC. 7 district and 16 PR.

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jaichind
Atlas Star

Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #81 on: June 07, 2021, 11:53:54 AM »

Quote from: Mike88 on June 07, 2021, 11:35:15 AM

Quote from: jaichind on June 07, 2021, 11:31:37 AM

Quote from: Mike88 on June 07, 2021, 11:08:57 AM

Quote from: jaichind on June 07, 2021, 11:03:17 AM

You're projecting 279 for Morena/PVEM/PT, 201 for PAN/PRI/PRD and 20 for MC, right?

I have 23 for MC. 7 district and 16 PR.

So there's a typo, because the current tally gives 7 for MC, but your projection gives them 4.

I misread your post. My model had 4 district seats vs their current 7. I did not project PR for them.

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jaichind
Atlas Star

Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #82 on: June 07, 2021, 12:40:40 PM »

Quote from: Hash on June 07, 2021, 12:38:02 PM

Quote from: jaichind on June 07, 2021, 07:45:37 AM

Baja California (71.3% in)

MORENA-PVEM-PT 48.24%
PES 31.33% !!
PAN-PRI-PRD 11.68%

PAN-PRI-PRD candidate is an independent so the PAN vote it seems went to PES

I've written about this in my first preview write-up post some pages down. The PES candidate is the notorious (ex-)priista businessman, crook and crazy person Jorge Hank Rhon. With Lupita Jones being a really terrible candidate, the state PRI - which never wanted her, but was forced to go along by the national PRI - abandoned her and endorsed Hank Rhon a week or so ago. If anything, Hank probably got a lot of the PRI vote (and likely some of the PAN vote as well).

Really a strong result for Morena in BC, in spite of their last two years in power in the state being disastrous. Marina del Pilar did a very solid job in avoiding being tarnished by Bonilla's unpopularity. Also helps that the PAN, which governed BC for 30 years, is still in very bad shape.

I remember that. Still I am shocked that the scale of defection would be that large. Also I thought PAN had some strength in Baja California and for PAN-PRI-PRD to be at 11% meant a bunch of PAN voters also went to PES.

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jaichind
Atlas Star

Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

	Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021 « Reply #83 on: June 07, 2021, 01:08:05 PM »
	« Edited: June 07, 2021, 02:28:58 PM by jaichind »

With 95% of the vote counted in PREP for Congressional vote we have (all non-NULL vote share)

   Ahead Vote share (non-Null)
MORENA-PVEM-PT 183 44.19%
PAN-PRI-PRD 110 41.26%
MC 7 7.24%

Compared to my back-of-the-envelope projections it is

   Ahead My projection
MORENA 64 64
PVEM 1 0
MORENA-PVEM-PT 118 120
PAN 34 31
PRI 11 6
PRD 0 0
PAN-PRI-PRD 65 75
MC 7 4

I was able to map the alliance candidate party ID to derive

MORENA-PVEM-PT 118
   MORENA 59
   PVEM 27
   PT 32

PAN-PRI-PRD 65
   PAN 38
   PRI 20
   PRD 7

So district seat by party is

PAN 72
PRI 31
PRD 7
PVEM 28
PT 32
MC 7
MORENA 123

Vote by party (and projected PR seats)

PAN 19.09% 41
PRI 18.40% 40
PRD 3.78% 8
PVEM 5.58% 12
PT 3.29% 7
MC 7.23% 16
MORENA 35.29% 76
PES 2.82%
RSP 1.82%
FxM 2.58%

This gives us current seat count

MORENA-PVEM-PT 278
PAN-PRI-PRD 199
MC 23

With seats by party

   District PR Total
PAN 72 41 113
PRI 31 40 71
PRD 7 8 15
PVEM 28 12 40
PT 32 7 39
MC 7 16 23
MORENA 123 76 199

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jaichind
Atlas Star

Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #84 on: June 07, 2021, 01:16:54 PM »

What seems to have taken place in Lower House elections was a churn where MORENA has stopped being an insurgent party and become a machine party. MORENA lost ground in Mexico City, Mexico State and other urban areas but gained ground in rural areas. The falloff of MORENA support in Mexico City is quite stark and the PAN-PRI-PRD alliance was able to take advantage of it. It seems Mexico City and other urban areas like AMLO the insurgent but not AMLO the new establishment while at the same time MORENA has moved into, most rural, territories formerly dominated by PRI to become the machine party and all the votes that comes with it.

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jaichind
Atlas Star

Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #85 on: June 07, 2021, 01:32:38 PM »

Governor races update (too lazy to strip out NULL)

Baja California (96% in)
MORENA-PVEM-PT 48.19%
PES 31.11% !!
PAN-PRI-PRD 11.78%

Baja California Sur (97.4% in)
MORENA-PT 46.63%
PAN-PRI-PRD 40.03%
PVEM 3.12%

Campeche (80.8% in)
MORENA-PT 33.16%
MC 31.64%
PRI-PAN-PRD 30.82%

Chihuahua (80.7% in)
PAN-PRD 44.21%
MORENA-PT-PANAL 30.71%
MC 12.06%
PRI 6.93%

Colima (100% in)
MORENA-PANAL 32.93%
PRI-PAN-PRD 27.52%
MC 19.07%
PVEM 12.98%

Guerrero (36.5% in) (something seems very wrong with this speed)
MORENA 46.30%
PRI-PRD 37.73%
PVEM-PT 5.54%

Michoacán (98.3% in)
MORENA-PT 41.58%
PRD-PRI-PAN 39.04%
PVEM 5.73%
MC 3.83%
PES 3.14%

Nayarit (86% in)
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL 49.23%
MC 20.49%
PAN-PRI-PRD 17.42%
MLN 4.42% (local party)

Nuevo León (100% in)
MC 36.69%
PRI-PRD 27.97%
PAN 18.26%
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL 14.03%

Querétaro (site is down but it is clear PAN have won)

San Luis Potosí (62.3% in)
PVEM-PT 36.36%
PAN-PRI-PRD 32.34%
MORENA 11.91%
RSP 9.93%

Sinaloa (77.2% in)
MORENA-PAS 56.71%
PRI-PAN-PRD 32.63%
MC 2.85%

Sonora (98.8% in)
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL 51.51%
PRI-PAN-PRD 35.69%
MC 4.76%

Tlaxcala (67.9% in)
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL-PES 48.76%
PRI-PAN-PRD 37.07%
RSP 6.21%

Zacatecas (97.2% in)
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL 48.66%
PRI-PAN-PRD 38.37%
MC 2.91%

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jaichind
Atlas Star

Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

	Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021 « Reply #86 on: June 07, 2021, 03:37:16 PM »
	« Edited: June 07, 2021, 05:58:41 PM by jaichind »

My quick summery of state assembly elections.

Aguascalientes - PAN-PRD sweep of MORENA-PT-PANAL
Baja California: MORENA-PVEM-PT sweep of PAN-PRD
Baja California Sur: MORENA-PT significant edge over PAN-PRI-PRD
Campeche: MORENA edges out PRI-PAN-PRD and MC in three way race
Chiapas: MORENA-PVEM-PT sweep of PRI-PAN-PRD
Chihuahua: PAN-PRD edges out MORENA
CDMX: MORENA-PT barely edges out PRI-PAN-PRD
Colima: MORENA-PANAL barely edges out PRI-PAN-PRD
Durango: PAN-PRI-PRD significant edge over MORENA-PT
Guanajuato: PREP is down but I am sure PAN swept MORENA
Guerrero: MORENA edges out PRI-PRD (PVEM-PT running separately hurt MORENA)
Hidalgo: MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL significant edge over PRI-PAN-PRD
Jalisco: MC significant edge over MORENA (PAN and PRI split hurt both)
Edomex: PREP is down - will be very interesting to what took place here
Michoacán: PRD-PRI-PAN slight edge over MORENA-PT (PVEM running separately hurt MORENA)
Morelos: MORENA edge over PAN (this was a free for all with MORENA, PAN, PRI-PRD, MC, PT, PVEM) running separately)
Nayarit: MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL clean sweep
Nuevo León: Near tied between PRI-PRD and PAN with MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL a distant third and MC with nothing
Oaxaca : Large MORENA edge over PRI-PAN-PRD (PVEM and PT running separately hurt MORENA)
Puebla: virtual tie between MORENA-PT and PAN-PRI-PRD (PVEM running separately hurt MORENA-PT)
Querétaro: PREP is down but I am sure PAN swept
San Luis Potosí: PAN-PRI-PRD virtual tie with PVEM-PT. (MORENA running separately perhaps hurt PVEM-PT)
Sinaloa: MORENA-PAS complete sweep of PRI-PAN-PRD
Sonora: MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL sweep of PRI-PAN-PRD
Tabasco: MORENA clean sweep of PRD and PRI-PAN which were hurt by running separately
Tamaulipas: MORENA-PT significant edge over PAN (PRI running separately hurt PAN)
Tlaxcala: MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL sweep of PRI PAN PRD which were hurt by running separately
Veracruz: MORENA-PVEM-PT sweep of PAN-PRI-PRD
Yucatan: PAN-PRD-PANAL sweep of MORENA and PRI
Zacatecas: Virtual tie between MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL and PRI-PAN-PRD (MORENA alliance was partial which hurt MORENA.)

Overall MORENA underperformed here just like it overperformed in governor elections. This is mostly has to do with MORENA failure in some states to get PVEM and PT form a perfect alliance versus a partial one or none.

Edomex results will be interesting to find out.

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jaichind
Atlas Star

Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #87 on: June 07, 2021, 05:59:19 PM »

Quote from: Hash on June 07, 2021, 05:33:34 PM

There were no state legislative elections in QRoo, only municipal elections.

PREP in Edomex can be accessed separately here: https://ieem.milenio.com/prep_ieem_escritorio/diputados/voto_x_distrito.html.

The outcome is basically tied: 22 districts for Morena et al. against a combined total of 23 for the PRI-PAN-PRD. In 2018, Morena had won all but 3 districts, so this is a significant gain for the opposition. In detail, the PAN won back lost ground in the so-called 'blue corridor', and the opposition also gained in Toluca and the rural western half of the state (and elsewhere like Tecámac and Los Reyes Acaquilpan). Morena retained much of the Valley of Mexico except for the blue corridor, including all the districts in Neza and Ecatepec.

Thanks much for this. It seems relative to 2018 PRI is making somewhat of a comeback in Edomex as well.

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jaichind
Atlas Star

Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #88 on: June 07, 2021, 06:20:08 PM »

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-mexican-midterm-vote-lifts-142429276.html

"UPDATE 1-Mexican midterm vote lifts peso as Lopez Obrador loses super-majority"

MXN and Mexico Bolsa index surged on AMLO block losing seats in Congress.

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jaichind
Atlas Star

Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #89 on: June 07, 2021, 06:28:41 PM »

Quote from: jaichind on June 05, 2021, 08:15:32 PM

I went back and looked at the MORENA-PVEM-PT and PAN-PRI-PVEM coalition agreements and was able to get the party ID of the candidate for the seats they are in alliance in.

I was able then to map that onto my back-of-the-envelope projects based on 2018 results which gives us

MORENA-PVEM-PT 120
   MORENA 62
   PVEM 22
   PT 36
MORENA 64

PAN-PRI-PRD 75
   PAN 40
   PRI 18
   PRD 17
PAN 31
PRI 6
PRD 0

MC 4

Which gives us district seats by party

MORENA 126
PVEM 22
PT 36
PAN 71
PRI 24
PRD 17
MC 4

Obviously there has been churn since 2018 so these numbers are going to be off. But a couple of interesting facts about these numbers are PAN >> PRI and PT>PVEM. The reason they are interesting is most media projections have either PAN and PRI neck to neck in terms of seats or a small PAN edge over PRI and at the same the most media projections PVEM with more total seats than PT. I am sure once we add in PR seats the gap between PVEM and PT will narrow.

I have no idea what the result will be but my back-of-the-envelope model seems to indicate that there will be a wide gap between the number of total seats PAN wins and PRI wins given the lean of the seats that they are contesting. It will be interesting to see election night if my back-of-the-envelope model is correct or the media poll projections.

So far by my calculation the PRI district seats count is 71 and PRI seat count is 30. So even though my back-of-the-envelope projection method had a lot of misses most of them canceled each other out and there is, as I expected, a large seat gap between PAN and PRI. So I was right in my pre-election guess of the large seat between PAN and PRI whereas other pollster pre-election projections had PAN and PRI at similar number of seats or PAN only somewhat higher than PRI in terms of seats.

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jaichind
Atlas Star

Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #90 on: June 07, 2021, 08:01:25 PM »

With PREP mostly done (99.6% in) for Congressional vote we have (all non-NULL vote share)

Ahead Vote share (non-Null)
MORENA-PVEM-PT 184 44.25%
PAN-PRI-PRD 109 41.18%
MC 7 7.23%

Compared to my back-of-the-envelope projections it is

Ahead My projection
MORENA 64 64
PVEM 1 0
MORENA-PVEM-PT 119 120
PAN 33 31
PRI 11 6
PRD 0 0
PAN-PRI-PRD 65 75
MC 7 4

I was able to map the alliance candidate party ID to derive

MORENA-PVEM-PT 119
MORENA 59
PVEM 29
PT 31

PAN-PRI-PRD 65
PAN 39
PRI 19
PRD 7

So district seat by party is

PAN 72
PRI 31
PRD 7
PVEM 30
PT 31
MC 7
MORENA 123

Vote by party (and projected PR seats)

PAN 18.96% 41
PRI 18.41% 40
PRD 3.81% 8
PVEM 5.65% 12
PT 3.37% 7
MC 7.22% 16
MORENA 35.24% 76
PES 2.83%
RSP 1.83%
FxM 2.57%

This gives us current seat count

MORENA-PVEM-PT 279
PAN-PRI-PRD 198
MC 23

With seats by party

District PR Total
PAN 72 41 113
PRI 31 40 71
PRD 7 8 15
PVEM 30 12 42
PT 31 7 38
MC 7 16 23
MORENA 123 76 199

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jaichind
Atlas Star

Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #91 on: June 08, 2021, 05:15:46 AM »

Quote from: PSOL on June 07, 2021, 08:14:57 PM

What are the chances PVEM reads the room and aligns with the PRIANDs?

I doubt PVEM will jump ship unless MORENA is no longer the ruling party. It seems PVEM is extremely calculating in making investments and then gaining from those investments. In San Luis Potosí, as pointed out, PVEM ran a PRD rebel and actually won the governorship. This seems to have taken place via various forms of vote buying. This was clearly organized and orchestrated by PVEM. PVEM bargained with MORENA to run the MORENA-PVEM-PT federal candidate in 5 out of the 7 seats in San Luis Potosí. PVEM won 4 of them and another one on its own. PVEM's Congressional vote share surged to 26.66% from 6%-7% in the 2009-2018 period. So the vote buying was not just for the governor race but also extended to the Congressional races where PVEM won 5 out of 7 seats. PVEM did something similar in Chiapas in 2012 which is still paying dividends. The idea of course is that PVEM will need resources to make these types of investments and will need to align with the ruling party to pull it off. So if PAN-PRI comes to power in 2024 I am sure PVEM will sign a different tune. But until then I suspect it will be aligned with MORENA.

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jaichind
Atlas Star

Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #92 on: June 08, 2021, 06:19:55 AM »

Quote from: Southern Deputy Speaker Punxsutawney Phil on June 08, 2021, 05:24:31 AM

Quote from: jaichind on June 08, 2021, 05:15:46 AM

Quote from: PSOL on June 07, 2021, 08:14:57 PM

What are the chances PVEM reads the room and aligns with the PRIANDs?

PVEM is the New Komeito Party of Mexico. Change my mind.

They are similar but different. KP has votes (8% of VAP which in regular turnout is worth 12%-14% of the vote) and want to leverage that vote into social acceptability and protection through political influence. This means KP will not ally with who is in power but ally with the party that is highest on the social acceptability hierarchy which might or might not be the same party. For most of the period since the 1990s that has been the LDP. PVEM does not have votes. When it runs alone without an ally, without a candidate that has a personal vote, and without throwing in resources it get 1%-3% of the vote. But it does have a nationally recognized party and ballot access. This makes it easier to recruit high profile candidates, through in resources to gain seats and use those seats to gain more resources to continue this process. So PVEM will not discriminate in terms of ally choice whereas KP will.

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jaichind
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Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #93 on: June 08, 2021, 06:23:36 AM »

An initial look at the Congressional vote by state shows, as mentioned before, MORENA losing votes in urban areas like Mexico City, Edomex etc etc. In rural areas MORENA vote is mostly holding up but new parties like RSP and FxM do seem to be eating into MORENA. In most states what seems to be taking place is the opposition vote is concentrating around the STRONGER of the PAN PRI PRD as a competitor to MORENA where the weaker two of the opposition alliance will lose votes to the stronger one. It seems evenly split if the gainer is PAN or PRI and an in a couple of cases it is actually PRD.

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jaichind
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Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #94 on: June 08, 2021, 09:48:51 AM »

Just to underscore the different swings in urban and rural area the example of Puebla is instructive. Puebla has 15 seats of which 4 are in Puebla city and the rest area more rural areas. If you look at the vote shares in 2018 and 2021 in these two blocs one gets

Puebla city

2018 2021 diff
PAN 24.87% 37.88% +13.01%
PRI 10.17% 9.35% -0.82%
PRD 1.95% 1.73% -0.22%
MC 2.61% 3.30% +0.69%
PES 2.62% 3.50% +1.56%
PVEM 4.34% 2.88% -1.46%
PT 3.84% 2.48% -1.36%
MORENA 47.65% 35.73% -11.93%

Big PAN surge and big drop-off in AMLO parties (MORENA PVEM PT) meant that PAN-PRI-PRD was able to sweep these seats.

Non-Puebla City areas

2018 2021 diff
PAN 19.91% 13.71% -6.21%
PRI 20.22% 19.21% -1.01%
PRD 3.26% 3.22% -0.04%
MC 4.23% 6.68% +2.45%
PES 1.94% 3.50% +1.56%
PVEM 4.24% 6.60% +2.36%
PT 4.48% 6.55% +2.07%
MORENA 38.68% 33.77% -4.92%

MORENA lost some ground but MORENA allies PVEM and PT gained ground to make up for it. While PAN and PRI lost ground to parties like MC and PES which mean that MORENA-PVEM-PT were able to sweep most of these seats.

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jaichind
Atlas Star

Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #95 on: June 08, 2021, 12:30:08 PM »

Quote from: Mike88 on June 08, 2021, 10:02:05 AM

What could this results mean for the 2024 elections? Obrador is barred from running again in 3 years, so MORENA has to nominate someone new, and MORENA could lose more ground. And is it expected that the Va por Mexico coalition will be repeated, again, in 3 years from now?

On paper I still think Ebrard would be the best successor to AMLO to lead MORENA but I think has become more inactive recently. He is also too independent of AMLO to be selected. Same is true for Monreal which will also be too independent of AMLO. Sheinbaum does not really have a political base of her own and the recent disasters so I would think should rule her out. I think Secretary of the Interior Sanchez Cordero is most likely to be picked as she does seem to have somewhat of a base but not too independent of AMLO.

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jaichind
Atlas Star

Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #96 on: June 08, 2021, 03:11:51 PM »

Quote from: Oryxslayer on June 08, 2021, 03:05:53 PM

Quote from: jaichind on June 07, 2021, 01:08:05 PM

I was able to map the alliance candidate party ID to derive

MORENA-PVEM-PT 118
   MORENA 59
   PVEM 27
   PT 32

PAN-PRI-PRD 65
   PAN 38
   PRI 20
   PRD 7

How exactly would one find the ID of those candidates running one the alliance lists for the districts? All PREP's I have checked have them listed as alliance candidates.

It is not easy. You have to find the alliance agreement field with INE

https://repositoriodocumental.ine.mx/xmlui/bitstream/handle/123456789/117345/CGex202115-02-rp-4-Anexo.pdf

is the one for PAN-PRI-PRD

https://repositoriodocumental.ine.mx/xmlui/bitstream/handle/123456789/118544/CGor202103-21-rp-27-Anexo.pdf

is the one for MORENA-PVEM-PT

the addendum of each agreement has the party that is running for each alliance seat.

BTW, the PT candidates are mostly bogus and almost certainly directly controlled by AMLO which makes them de facto MORENA candidate despite their PT party label. This is all just a ploy to get around the 8% rule.

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jaichind
Atlas Star

Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #97 on: June 08, 2021, 03:29:27 PM »

Nuevo León had some fun 4- way battles (all in non-Null form)

Nuevo León 3rd
MORENA-PVEM-PT (PT) 26.53%
MC 26.21%
PAN 26.14%
PRI 16.43%

Nuevo León 7th
MORENA-PVEM-PT (PVEM) 26.02%
PAN 25.58%
MC 24.70%
PRI 16.85%

Nuevo León 8th
PRI 28.34%
PAN 24.07%
MORENA-PVEM-PT (PVEM) 22.65%
MC 21.53%

Nuevo León 12th
PRI 26.65%
MORENA-PVEM-PT (MORENA) 25.39%
PAN 23.39%
MC 20.36%

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jaichind
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Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #98 on: June 08, 2021, 07:15:20 PM »

Quote from: Hash on June 08, 2021, 05:47:22 PM

Quote from: jaichind on June 08, 2021, 03:11:51 PM

BTW, the PT candidates are mostly bogus and almost certainly directly controlled by AMLO which makes them de facto MORENA candidate despite their PT party label. This is all just a ploy to get around the 8% rule.

Certainly was the case in 2018 and undoubtedly there'll be lots of defectors to and from Morena/PT/others in this new legislature, but the INE has approved new rules to avoid partisan overrepresentation (i.e. getting around the 8% rule) of the kind that benefited Morena in 2018, consisting of verifying the 'effective affiliation' of each fptp candidate in a coalition at the time of their registration. The INE verified the affiliation of candidates (as of Mar. 21) in May. Here is the full text of their decision.

It was actually in the case of VxM did they find the most simulated candidacies, reassigning the distribution as follows: PAN 88 (+11), PRI 69 (-2), PRD 61 (-9). In the Morena and friends coalition, they only found two simulated candidacies, both Morena candidacies who were actually PT and PVEM members respectively.

Also worth noting that the PT was, with Morena, the parliamentary group that benefited the most from defections between 2018 and 2021. It's a good party for defectors of various stripes, it's not only a fake label.

Ah, did not know INE came up with rules to try to block this workaround of the 8% rule. Useful to know.

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jaichind
Atlas Star

Posts: 27,684

Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Re: Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

« Reply #99 on: June 09, 2021, 08:37:47 AM »

Quote from: Frodo on June 09, 2021, 01:00:56 AM

Given how machismo Mexican culture is, this is a notable achievement by women:

Women score historic wins in Mexico's mid-term elections

My impression is that this was top-down. Meaning AMLO mandated a certain quota of female candidates for MORENA.

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