Mexico Legislative and Governor elections June 6th 2021

[Socani]

The House election results so far: (92% in)

42.6% Morena/PVEM/PT, 184 seats
39.9% PAN/PRI/PRD, 109
  7.0% MC, 7
10.5% Others/Invalid, 0

52.1% Turnout

Morena itself has lost its majority, right? That isn't a good result for Obrador as he's now dependent on his allies, right?


Results from here: https://expansion.mx/prep2021

They lost the qualified majority (For modifying the constitution) but they still have the majority in Congress by my calculations:

JHH (AMLO'S Coalition): 285
VxM (The opposition): 192
MC: 23

Yes, but Morena alone doesn't have a majority, like they did since 2018, right?

I think so because Morena alone has: 76 PR Seats, 64 FPTP candidates winning without a coalition and mostly half of winning candidates of the coalition (in the 80-85 range) are from Morena

The problem is the same as 2018, many from PVEM and PT will try to jump to MORENA.

[jaichind]

With 93% of the vote counted in PREP for Congressional vote we have (all non-NULL vote share)

                             Ahead    Vote share (non-Null)
MORENA-PVEM-PT    183              44.13%
PAN-PRI-PRD           110              41.32%
MC                             7                7.24%

Compared to my back-of-the-envelope projections it is
     
                               Ahead         My projection
MORENA                     64                  64
PVEM                           1                    0
MORENA-PVEM-PT      118               120
PAN                            33                 31
PRI                             11                   6
PRD                              0                   0
PAN-PRI-PRD              66                  75
MC                              7                    4


Vote by party (and projected PR seats)

PAN         19.17%     41
PRI          18.40%     40
PRD           3.75%      8
PVEM         5.54%    12
PT             3.29%      7
MC            7.24%    16
MORENA  35.30%    76
PES           2.81%
RSP          1.81%
FxM          2.59%

This gives us current seat count

MORENA-PVEM-PT        278
PAN-PRI-PRD               199
MC                               23

PES vote share still rising.  Most likely will not make it to the 3% threshold.

You're projecting 279 for Morena/PVEM/PT, 201 for PAN/PRI/PRD and 20 for MC, right?

I have 23 for MC.   7 district and 16 PR.

[Mike88]

With 93% of the vote counted in PREP for Congressional vote we have (all non-NULL vote share)

                             Ahead    Vote share (non-Null)
MORENA-PVEM-PT    183              44.13%
PAN-PRI-PRD           110              41.32%
MC                             7                7.24%

Compared to my back-of-the-envelope projections it is
     
                               Ahead         My projection
MORENA                     64                  64
PVEM                           1                    0
MORENA-PVEM-PT      118               120
PAN                            33                 31
PRI                             11                   6
PRD                              0                   0
PAN-PRI-PRD              66                  75
MC                              7                    4


Vote by party (and projected PR seats)

PAN         19.17%     41
PRI          18.40%     40
PRD           3.75%      8
PVEM         5.54%    12
PT             3.29%      7
MC            7.24%    16
MORENA  35.30%    76
PES           2.81%
RSP          1.81%
FxM          2.59%

This gives us current seat count

MORENA-PVEM-PT        278
PAN-PRI-PRD               199
MC                               23

PES vote share still rising.  Most likely will not make it to the 3% threshold.

You're projecting 279 for Morena/PVEM/PT, 201 for PAN/PRI/PRD and 20 for MC, right?

I have 23 for MC.   7 district and 16 PR.

So there's a typo, because the current tally gives 7 for MC, but your projection gives them 4.

[jaichind]

With 93% of the vote counted in PREP for Congressional vote we have (all non-NULL vote share)

                             Ahead    Vote share (non-Null)
MORENA-PVEM-PT    183              44.13%
PAN-PRI-PRD           110              41.32%
MC                             7                7.24%

Compared to my back-of-the-envelope projections it is
     
                               Ahead         My projection
MORENA                     64                  64
PVEM                           1                    0
MORENA-PVEM-PT      118               120
PAN                            33                 31
PRI                             11                   6
PRD                              0                   0
PAN-PRI-PRD              66                  75
MC                              7                    4


Vote by party (and projected PR seats)

PAN         19.17%     41
PRI          18.40%     40
PRD           3.75%      8
PVEM         5.54%    12
PT             3.29%      7
MC            7.24%    16
MORENA  35.30%    76
PES           2.81%
RSP          1.81%
FxM          2.59%

This gives us current seat count

MORENA-PVEM-PT        278
PAN-PRI-PRD               199
MC                               23

PES vote share still rising.  Most likely will not make it to the 3% threshold.

You're projecting 279 for Morena/PVEM/PT, 201 for PAN/PRI/PRD and 20 for MC, right?

I have 23 for MC.   7 district and 16 PR.

So there's a typo, because the current tally gives 7 for MC, but your projection gives them 4.

I misread your post. My model had 4 district seats vs their current 7.  I did not project PR for them.

[Hash]

Baja California (71.3% in)

MORENA-PVEM-PT     48.24%
PES                          31.33%  !!
PAN-PRI-PRD            11.68%

PAN-PRI-PRD candidate is an independent so the PAN vote it seems went to PES

I've written about this in my first preview write-up post some pages down. The PES candidate is the notorious (ex-)priista businessman, crook and crazy person Jorge Hank Rhon. With Lupita Jones being a really terrible candidate, the state PRI - which never wanted her, but was forced to go along by the national PRI - abandoned her and endorsed Hank Rhon a week or so ago. If anything, Hank probably got a lot of the PRI vote (and likely some of the PAN vote as well).

Really a strong result for Morena in BC, in spite of their last two years in power in the state being disastrous. Marina del Pilar did a very solid job in avoiding being tarnished by Bonilla's unpopularity. Also helps that the PAN, which governed BC for 30 years, is still in very bad shape.

[jaichind]

Baja California (71.3% in)

MORENA-PVEM-PT     48.24%
PES                          31.33%  !!
PAN-PRI-PRD            11.68%

PAN-PRI-PRD candidate is an independent so the PAN vote it seems went to PES

I've written about this in my first preview write-up post some pages down. The PES candidate is the notorious (ex-)priista businessman, crook and crazy person Jorge Hank Rhon. With Lupita Jones being a really terrible candidate, the state PRI - which never wanted her, but was forced to go along by the national PRI - abandoned her and endorsed Hank Rhon a week or so ago. If anything, Hank probably got a lot of the PRI vote (and likely some of the PAN vote as well).

Really a strong result for Morena in BC, in spite of their last two years in power in the state being disastrous. Marina del Pilar did a very solid job in avoiding being tarnished by Bonilla's unpopularity. Also helps that the PAN, which governed BC for 30 years, is still in very bad shape.

I remember that.  Still I am shocked that the scale of defection would be that large.  Also I thought PAN had some strength in Baja California and for PAN-PRI-PRD to be at 11% meant a bunch of PAN voters also went to PES.

[jaichind]

With 95% of the vote counted in PREP for Congressional vote we have (all non-NULL vote share)

                             Ahead    Vote share (non-Null)
MORENA-PVEM-PT    183              44.19%
PAN-PRI-PRD           110              41.26%
MC                             7                7.24%

Compared to my back-of-the-envelope projections it is
    
                               Ahead         My projection
MORENA                     64                  64
PVEM                           1                    0
MORENA-PVEM-PT      118               120
PAN                            34                 31
PRI                             11                   6
PRD                              0                   0
PAN-PRI-PRD              65                  75
MC                              7                    4

I was able to map the alliance candidate party ID to derive

MORENA-PVEM-PT   118
   MORENA                   59
   PVEM                        27
   PT                            32

PAN-PRI-PRD         65
   PAN                         38
   PRI                          20
   PRD                           7

So district seat by party is

PAN          72
PRI           31
PRD           7
PVEM       28
PT            32
MC            7
MORENA 123

Vote by party (and projected PR seats)

PAN         19.09%     41
PRI          18.40%     40
PRD           3.78%      8
PVEM         5.58%    12
PT             3.29%      7
MC            7.23%    16
MORENA  35.29%    76
PES           2.82%
RSP          1.82%
FxM          2.58%


This gives us current seat count

MORENA-PVEM-PT        278
PAN-PRI-PRD               199
MC                               23


With seats by party

              District         PR      Total
PAN           72              41      113
PRI            31             40        71
PRD            7               8        15
PVEM         28             12        40
PT             32               7        39
MC             7              16        23
MORENA  123              76      199

[jaichind]

What seems to have taken place in Lower House elections was a churn where MORENA has stopped being an insurgent party and become a machine party.  MORENA lost ground in Mexico City, Mexico State and other urban areas but gained ground in rural areas.  The falloff of MORENA support in Mexico City is quite stark and the PAN-PRI-PRD alliance was able to take advantage of it.   It seems Mexico City and other urban areas like AMLO the insurgent but not AMLO the new establishment while at the same time MORENA has moved into, most rural, territories formerly dominated by PRI to become the machine party and all the votes that comes with it.

[jaichind]

Governor races  update (too lazy to strip out NULL)

Baja California (96% in)
MORENA-PVEM-PT     48.19%
PES                          31.11%  !!
PAN-PRI-PRD            11.78%

 
Baja California Sur (97.4% in)
MORENA-PT              46.63%
PAN-PRI-PRD            40.03%
PVEM                        3.12%

 
Campeche (80.8% in)
MORENA-PT              33.16%
MC                           31.64%
PRI-PAN-PRD            30.82%

 
Chihuahua (80.7% in)
PAN-PRD                  44.21%
MORENA-PT-PANAL   30.71%
MC                          12.06%
PRI                           6.93%
 

Colima (100% in)
MORENA-PANAL       32.93%
PRI-PAN-PRD           27.52%
MC                          19.07%
PVEM                      12.98%

 
Guerrero (36.5% in) (something seems very wrong with this speed)
MORENA                46.30%
PRI-PRD                37.73%
PVEM-PT                 5.54%
 

Michoacán (98.3% in)
MORENA-PT            41.58%
PRD-PRI-PAN          39.04%
PVEM                      5.73%
MC                         3.83%
PES                        3.14%


Nayarit (86% in)
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL      49.23%
MC                                      20.49%
PAN-PRI-PRD                       17.42%
MLN                                     4.42% (local party)

 
Nuevo León (100% in)
MC                                    36.69%
PRI-PRD                            27.97%
PAN                                  18.26%
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL   14.03%


Querétaro (site is down but it is clear PAN have won)


San Luis Potosí (62.3% in)
PVEM-PT                   36.36%
PAN-PRI-PRD            32.34%
MORENA                   11.91%
RSP                            9.93%


Sinaloa (77.2% in)
MORENA-PAS            56.71%
PRI-PAN-PRD            32.63%
MC                            2.85%

 
Sonora (98.8% in)
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL   51.51%
PRI-PAN-PRD                    35.69%
MC                                    4.76%


Tlaxcala (67.9% in)
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL-PES    48.76%
PRI-PAN-PRD                            37.07%
RSP                                          6.21%


Zacatecas (97.2% in)
MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL         48.66%
PRI-PAN-PRD                           38.37%
MC                                          2.91%

[JM1295]

Sonora and Zacatecas seemed liked they were getting fairly competitive and near tossups towards the end, but wow they weren't particularly close. BCS is the big surprise for me though given MORENA's polling in the state. 11/15 wins for MORENA along with the opposition only winning 2 governor races is a pretty good result for MORENA.

The narrative emerging from these elections from mainstream media is interesting to me. AMLO and MORENA losing their congressional supermajority is a loss for them, but the party holds half of the country's governorships and still holds a majority (through its party alliances) in the legislative branch. This all happened with the major parties uniting against MORENA mind you lol.

[jaichind]

My quick summery of state assembly elections.  

Aguascalientes - PAN-PRD sweep of MORENA-PT-PANAL
Baja California: MORENA-PVEM-PT sweep of PAN-PRD
Baja California Sur: MORENA-PT significant edge over PAN-PRI-PRD
Campeche: MORENA edges out PRI-PAN-PRD and MC in three way race
Chiapas: MORENA-PVEM-PT sweep of PRI-PAN-PRD
Chihuahua: PAN-PRD edges out MORENA
CDMX: MORENA-PT barely edges out PRI-PAN-PRD
Colima: MORENA-PANAL barely edges out PRI-PAN-PRD
Durango: PAN-PRI-PRD significant edge over MORENA-PT
Guanajuato: PREP is down but I am sure PAN swept MORENA
Guerrero: MORENA edges out PRI-PRD (PVEM-PT running separately hurt MORENA)
Hidalgo: MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL significant edge over PRI-PAN-PRD
Jalisco: MC significant edge over MORENA (PAN and PRI split hurt both)
Edomex: PREP is down - will be very interesting to what took place here
Michoacán: PRD-PRI-PAN slight edge over MORENA-PT (PVEM running separately hurt MORENA)
Morelos: MORENA edge over PAN (this was a free for all with MORENA, PAN, PRI-PRD, MC, PT, PVEM) running separately)
Nayarit: MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL clean sweep
Nuevo León: Near tied between PRI-PRD and PAN with MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL a distant third and MC with nothing
Oaxaca : Large MORENA edge over PRI-PAN-PRD (PVEM and PT running separately hurt MORENA)
Puebla: virtual tie between MORENA-PT and PAN-PRI-PRD (PVEM running separately hurt MORENA-PT)
Querétaro: PREP is down but I am sure PAN swept
San Luis Potosí: PAN-PRI-PRD virtual tie with PVEM-PT.  (MORENA running separately perhaps hurt PVEM-PT)
Sinaloa: MORENA-PAS complete sweep of PRI-PAN-PRD
Sonora: MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL sweep of PRI-PAN-PRD
Tabasco: MORENA clean sweep of PRD and PRI-PAN which were hurt by running separately
Tamaulipas: MORENA-PT significant edge over PAN (PRI running separately hurt PAN)
Tlaxcala: MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL sweep of PRI PAN PRD which were hurt by running separately
Veracruz: MORENA-PVEM-PT sweep of PAN-PRI-PRD
Yucatan: PAN-PRD-PANAL sweep of MORENA and PRI
Zacatecas: Virtual tie between MORENA-PVEM-PT-PANAL and PRI-PAN-PRD (MORENA alliance was partial which hurt MORENA.)


Overall MORENA underperformed here just like it overperformed in governor elections. This is mostly has to do with MORENA failure in some states to get PVEM and PT form a perfect alliance versus a partial one or none.

Edomex results will be interesting to find out.

[Hash]

There were no state legislative elections in QRoo, only municipal elections.

PREP in Edomex can be accessed separately here: https://ieem.milenio.com/prep_ieem_escritorio/diputados/voto_x_distrito.html.

The outcome is basically tied: 22 districts for Morena et al. against a combined total of 23 for the PRI-PAN-PRD. In 2018, Morena had won all but 3 districts, so this is a significant gain for the opposition. In detail, the PAN won back lost ground in the so-called 'blue corridor', and the opposition also gained in Toluca and the rural western half of the state (and elsewhere like Tecámac and Los Reyes Acaquilpan). Morena retained much of the Valley of Mexico except for the blue corridor, including all the districts in Neza and Ecatepec.

[jaichind]

There were no state legislative elections in QRoo, only municipal elections.

PREP in Edomex can be accessed separately here: https://ieem.milenio.com/prep_ieem_escritorio/diputados/voto_x_distrito.html.

The outcome is basically tied: 22 districts for Morena et al. against a combined total of 23 for the PRI-PAN-PRD. In 2018, Morena had won all but 3 districts, so this is a significant gain for the opposition. In detail, the PAN won back lost ground in the so-called 'blue corridor', and the opposition also gained in Toluca and the rural western half of the state (and elsewhere like Tecámac and Los Reyes Acaquilpan). Morena retained much of the Valley of Mexico except for the blue corridor, including all the districts in Neza and Ecatepec.

Thanks much for this.  It seems relative to 2018 PRI is making somewhat of a comeback in Edomex as well.

[jaichind]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-mexican-midterm-vote-lifts-142429276.html

"UPDATE 1-Mexican midterm vote lifts peso as Lopez Obrador loses super-majority"

MXN and Mexico  Bolsa index surged on AMLO block losing seats in Congress.

[jaichind]

I went back and looked at the MORENA-PVEM-PT and PAN-PRI-PVEM coalition agreements and was able to get the party ID of the candidate for the seats they are in alliance in.  

I was able then to map that onto my back-of-the-envelope projects based on 2018 results which gives us


MORENA-PVEM-PT     120
    MORENA                     62
    PVEM                          22
    PT                              36
MORENA                    64

PAN-PRI-PRD             75
   PAN                            40
   PRI                            18
   PRD                           17
PAN                          31
PRI                             6
PRD                            0

MC                             4

Which gives us district seats by party

MORENA      126
PVEM            22
PT                36
PAN              71
PRI               24
PRD              17
MC                 4

Obviously there has been churn since 2018 so these numbers are going to be off.  But a couple of interesting facts about these numbers  are PAN >> PRI and PT>PVEM.   The reason they are interesting is most media projections have either PAN and PRI neck to neck in terms of seats or a small PAN edge over PRI and at the same the most media projections PVEM with more total seats than PT.  I am sure once we add in PR seats the gap between PVEM and PT will narrow.  

I have no idea what the result will be but my back-of-the-envelope model seems to indicate that there will be a wide gap between the number of total seats PAN wins and PRI wins given the lean of the seats that they are contesting.  It will be interesting to see election night if my back-of-the-envelope model is correct or the media poll projections.

So far by my calculation the PRI district seats count is 71 and PRI seat count is 30.  So even though my back-of-the-envelope projection method had a lot of misses most of them canceled each other out and there is, as I expected, a large seat gap between PAN and PRI.  So I was right in my pre-election guess of the large seat between PAN and PRI whereas other pollster pre-election projections had PAN and PRI at similar number of seats or PAN only somewhat higher than PRI in terms of seats.

[jaichind]

With PREP mostly done (99.6% in) for Congressional vote we have (all non-NULL vote share)

                             Ahead    Vote share (non-Null)
MORENA-PVEM-PT    184              44.25%
PAN-PRI-PRD           109              41.18%
MC                             7                7.23%

Compared to my back-of-the-envelope projections it is
   
                               Ahead         My projection
MORENA                     64                  64
PVEM                           1                    0
MORENA-PVEM-PT      119               120
PAN                            33                 31
PRI                             11                   6
PRD                              0                   0
PAN-PRI-PRD              65                  75
MC                              7                    4

I was able to map the alliance candidate party ID to derive

MORENA-PVEM-PT   119
   MORENA                   59
   PVEM                        29
   PT                            31

PAN-PRI-PRD         65
   PAN                         39
   PRI                          19
   PRD                           7

So district seat by party is

PAN          72
PRI           31
PRD           7
PVEM       30
PT            31
MC            7
MORENA 123

Vote by party (and projected PR seats)

PAN         18.96%     41
PRI          18.41%     40
PRD           3.81%      8
PVEM         5.65%    12
PT             3.37%      7
MC            7.22%    16
MORENA  35.24%    76
PES           2.83%
RSP          1.83%
FxM          2.57%


This gives us current seat count

MORENA-PVEM-PT        279
PAN-PRI-PRD               198
MC                               23


With seats by party

              District         PR      Total
PAN           72              41      113
PRI            31             40        71
PRD            7               8        15
PVEM         30             12        42
PT             31               7        38
MC             7              16        23
MORENA  123              76      199

[PSOL]

What are the chances PVEM reads the room and aligns with the PRIANDs?

[jaichind]

What are the chances PVEM reads the room and aligns with the PRIANDs?

I doubt PVEM will jump ship unless MORENA is no longer the ruling party.  It seems PVEM is extremely calculating in making investments and then gaining from those investments.  In San Luis Potosí, as pointed out, PVEM ran a PRD rebel and actually won the governorship.  This seems to have taken place via various forms of vote buying.  This was clearly organized and orchestrated by PVEM.  PVEM bargained with MORENA to run the MORENA-PVEM-PT federal candidate in 5 out of the 7 seats in San Luis Potosí.    PVEM won 4 of them and another one on its own.  PVEM's Congressional vote share surged to 26.66% from 6%-7% in the 2009-2018 period.  So the vote buying was not just for the governor race but also extended to the Congressional races where PVEM won 5 out of 7 seats.  PVEM did something similar in Chiapas in 2012 which is still paying dividends. The idea of course is that PVEM will need resources to make these types of investments and will need to align with the ruling party to pull it off.  So if PAN-PRI comes to power in 2024 I am sure PVEM will sign a different tune.  But until then I suspect it will be aligned with MORENA.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are the chances PVEM reads the room and aligns with the PRIANDs?

I doubt PVEM will jump ship unless MORENA is no longer the ruling party.  It seems PVEM is extremely calculating in making investments and then gaining from those investments.  In San Luis Potosí, as pointed out, PVEM ran a PRD rebel and actually won the governorship.  This seems to have taken place via various forms of vote buying.  This was clearly organized and orchestrated by PVEM.  PVEM bargained with MORENA to run the MORENA-PVEM-PT federal candidate in 5 out of the 7 seats in San Luis Potosí.    PVEM won 4 of them and another one on its own.  PVEM's Congressional vote share surged to 26.66% from 6%-7% in the 2009-2018 period.  So the vote buying was not just for the governor race but also extended to the Congressional races where PVEM won 5 out of 7 seats.  PVEM did something similar in Chiapas in 2012 which is still paying dividends. The idea of course is that PVEM will need resources to make these types of investments and will need to align with the ruling party to pull it off.  So if PAN-PRI comes to power in 2024 I am sure PVEM will sign a different tune.  But until then I suspect it will be aligned with MORENA.

PVEM is the New Komeito Party of Mexico. Change my mind.

[jaichind]

What are the chances PVEM reads the room and aligns with the PRIANDs?

I doubt PVEM will jump ship unless MORENA is no longer the ruling party.  It seems PVEM is extremely calculating in making investments and then gaining from those investments.  In San Luis Potosí, as pointed out, PVEM ran a PRD rebel and actually won the governorship.  This seems to have taken place via various forms of vote buying.  This was clearly organized and orchestrated by PVEM.  PVEM bargained with MORENA to run the MORENA-PVEM-PT federal candidate in 5 out of the 7 seats in San Luis Potosí.    PVEM won 4 of them and another one on its own.  PVEM's Congressional vote share surged to 26.66% from 6%-7% in the 2009-2018 period.  So the vote buying was not just for the governor race but also extended to the Congressional races where PVEM won 5 out of 7 seats.  PVEM did something similar in Chiapas in 2012 which is still paying dividends. The idea of course is that PVEM will need resources to make these types of investments and will need to align with the ruling party to pull it off.  So if PAN-PRI comes to power in 2024 I am sure PVEM will sign a different tune.  But until then I suspect it will be aligned with MORENA.

PVEM is the New Komeito Party of Mexico. Change my mind.

They are similar but different.  KP has votes (8% of VAP which in regular turnout is worth 12%-14% of the vote) and want to leverage that vote into social acceptability and protection through political influence.  This means KP will not ally with who is in power but ally with the party that is highest on the social acceptability hierarchy which might or might not be the same party.  For most of the period since the 1990s that has been the LDP.   PVEM does not have votes.  When it runs alone without an ally, without a candidate that has a personal vote, and without throwing in resources it get 1%-3% of the vote.  But it does have a nationally recognized party and ballot access.  This makes it easier to recruit high profile candidates, through in resources to gain seats and use those seats to gain more resources to continue this process.  So PVEM will not discriminate in terms of ally choice whereas KP will.

[jaichind]

An initial look at the Congressional vote by state shows, as mentioned before, MORENA losing votes in urban areas like Mexico City, Edomex etc etc.  In rural areas MORENA vote is mostly holding up but new parties like RSP and FxM do seem to be eating into MORENA.  In most states what seems to be taking place is the opposition vote is concentrating around the STRONGER of the PAN PRI PRD as a competitor to MORENA where the weaker two of the opposition alliance will lose votes to the stronger one.  It seems evenly split if the gainer is PAN or PRI and an in a couple of cases it is actually PRD.

[jaichind]

Just to underscore the different swings in urban and rural area the example of Puebla is instructive.  Puebla has 15 seats of which 4 are in Puebla city and the rest area more rural areas.  If you look at the vote shares in 2018 and 2021 in these two blocs one gets

Puebla city

                  2018        2021         diff
PAN           24.87%    37.88%  +13.01%
PRI            10.17%     9.35%     -0.82%
PRD             1.95%     1.73%     -0.22%
MC              2.61%     3.30%     +0.69%
PES            2.62%      3.50%    +1.56%
PVEM           4.34%     2.88%     -1.46%
PT               3.84%     2.48%     -1.36%
MORENA    47.65%   35.73%   -11.93%

Big PAN surge and big drop-off in AMLO parties (MORENA PVEM PT) meant that PAN-PRI-PRD was able to sweep these seats.


Non-Puebla City areas

                  2018        2021         diff
PAN           19.91%    13.71%    -6.21%
PRI            20.22%   19.21%    -1.01%
PRD            3.26%      3.22%    -0.04%
MC              4.23%     6.68%    +2.45%
PES             1.94%     3.50%    +1.56%
PVEM           4.24%     6.60%    +2.36%
PT               4.48%     6.55%    +2.07%
MORENA    38.68%   33.77%    -4.92%

MORENA lost some ground but MORENA allies PVEM and PT gained ground to make up for it. While PAN and PRI lost ground to parties like MC and PES which mean that MORENA-PVEM-PT were able to sweep most of these seats.

[Mike88]

What could this results mean for the 2024 elections? Obrador is barred from running again in 3 years, so MORENA has to nominate someone new, and MORENA could lose more ground. And is it expected that the Va por Mexico coalition will be repeated, again, in 3 years from now?

[Oryxslayer]

What could this results mean for the 2024 elections? Obrador is barred from running again in 3 years, so MORENA has to nominate someone new, and MORENA could lose more ground. And is it expected that the Va por Mexico coalition will be repeated, again, in 3 years from now?

One of the big losers of this election is Claudia Sheinbaum, who just watched the opposition sweep half of Mexico City. The May Metro accident may have had something to do with this. If MORENA was a normal party then this may dissuade AMLO from making her his heir, but MORENA seemingly likes established politicians who have relationships with AMLO - even if they bring a bunch of baggage.

[jaichind]

What could this results mean for the 2024 elections? Obrador is barred from running again in 3 years, so MORENA has to nominate someone new, and MORENA could lose more ground. And is it expected that the Va por Mexico coalition will be repeated, again, in 3 years from now?

On paper I still think Ebrard would be the best successor to AMLO to lead MORENA but I think has become more inactive recently.  He is also too independent of AMLO to be selected.  Same is true for Monreal  which will also be too independent of AMLO.   Sheinbaum does not really have a political base of her own and the recent disasters so I would think should rule her out.  I think Secretary of the Interior Sanchez Cordero is most likely to be picked as she does seem to have somewhat of a base but not too independent of AMLO.