VA-SEN 2024 megathread

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... I think Youngkin will want to try for president in 2024 and/or just finish out his term, but 2026 has his name written all over it, particularly if Mark Warner (who will be 75 that year) retires. 

As for 2024, I would imagine Sears and Miyares make a deal where one goes for the senate seat and the other goes for governor, most likely Sears for governor and Miyares for senate. 

From the US House delegation, I suppose it could also be Kiggans.  The other 4 Republican congresspeople all represent heavily rural outlying districts and would struggle with statewide appeal.  Also  note that Hung Cao, the Republican who ran for VA-10 this year, dramatically overperformed, doing almost as well as Youngkin in the CD.  This suggests he could have a statewide future.  The best thing might be to run for one of the outer NOVA state senate seats in 2023 first.  There are a couple in the Loudoun area that should be an easier lift for him than VA-10. 

The final possibility is someone from the state legislature.  This is intriguing as there are several people who have successfully held down Biden +10 seats and could reasonably have statewide appeal.  However, there are also several Mastriano-type crazy people from rural seats who would basically forfeit it on day 1.

[Skill and Chance]

I somehow feel like this race is going to be extremely overhyped like CO and WA this cycle. Rs get some "strong moderate" to run but a federal election in a Pres year with Pres turnout in VA is going to be very difficult for Rs.

This is why I think Youngkin needs to wait for 2026 and hope Biden gets reelected.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1616179114641133569?cxt=HHwWgsC42fCV6e0...

Hmm…

Democrats can certainly hold it without him of course..

This would be a classic 51 to 48 or 52 to 47 open seat race. In favor of Democrats

IDK Dems probably don't want his retirement to come while Youngkin is still the incumbent.  He legit might go for it if state senate stays Dem after 2023. 

[Skill and Chance]

Kaine running again is good news for Republicans because they now won’t light money on fire (even if only because of lazy Cook Political Report logic) on what was always going to be an unwinnable race with any D/R candidate.

IDK... Youngkin vs. progressive wing Dem who narrowly won the primary with an R winning (nationwide) at the top of the ticket?

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/catargetbot0001/status/1677085300445843457?s=61&t=J4ObZw...

Doubt it will work in a presidential year, but he's a reasonably strong candidate.  He made a Biden +18 district about as close as Spanberger's Biden +7 district for congress last year. 

[Skill and Chance]

Very strong candidate on paper, but also at great risk of DeSantis-ing himself if he keeps hanging out this much with the online right.