Kaine running again is good news for Republicans because they now won’t light money on fire (even if only because of lazy Cook Political Report logic) on what was always going to be an unwinnable race with any D/R candidate.
IDK... Youngkin vs. progressive wing Dem who narrowly won the primary with an R winning (nationwide) at the top of the ticket?
VA is not the type of the state where a progressive-wing Democrat would be able to forge a path to victory in a primary except in truly extraordinary circumstances where the D field is split and the state/national party doesn’t unite behind a challenger; it’s (still) the type of state where an establishment-backed candidate would absolutely dominate a primary contest.
As far as the GE is concerned, even a victorious Republican presidential candidate will probably lose VA by 6-8 points — not sure where the votes are for any Republican to overcome that margin? What type of Biden/Dem-2022 voter is going to be convinced to make Mitch McConnell Majority Leader? The entire race would be about as competitive (and just as overhyped) as IA-SEN 2020.
People are reading way too much into Youngkin's rather underwhelming (given the overall circumstances and environment he was running in) win. It was not a harbinger of some overall shift of the state becoming more competitive at the federal level. It’s still a D-trending state — not/no longer as rapidly as GA, but there are no encouraging signs whatsoever in any of NoVA/Richmond metro/Hampton Roads for the GOP.
This entire "Republicans swept all VA row offices in 2021" hype is basically this cycle's equivalent of "Democrats swept three out of four districts in Iowa in 2018, and yet you’re acting like it’s a red state!"
