The absentee/early vote thread

[swf541]

Didn't we learn in 2014 that using early/absentee data to extraploate things can put egg on your face?

People thought Hagan was going to coast to victory based just on favorable absentee data out of NC in 2014.

Definitely true, but there isnt harm in comparing and noticing the differences compared to 2012

[swf541]

Great post, but dont a lot of dem leaning Hispanics register as Independent and not Dem?

[swf541]

Great post, but dont a lot of dem leaning Hispanics register as Independent and not Dem?

A lot of tea partiers do as well. NOVA Green (if he's around) probably knows about this more than I do

Interesting, thanks.

[swf541]

Michael McDonald
‏@ElectProject
TX early vote update: just shy of 1.4 Million people voted, running 49.9% over 2012 numbers
http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2016/oct26.shtml


Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict  1h1 hour ago
TX early voting increases vs. '12, Day 3:
1. Travis (D) +117%
2. Williamson (R) +89%
3. El Paso (D) +83%
4. Collin (R) +71%
+50% overall

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict  1h1 hour ago
VA: so far, absentee votes cast are already 59% of '12 totals in Arlington/Fairfax/Prince William. Only 45% of '12 totals everywhere else.

@Taniel
@Redistrict are you sure? Those aren't the comparison trends that VPAP is providing.
https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/791728401518387201

In response to the Virginia thing

Voted early in Maryland today, seemed like highish turnout for the area mostly skewed older

[swf541]

"NV early voting blog updated!
Dem firewall in Clark close to 44,000. Statewide lead above 31,000. A lot like 2012."

Nevada seems to be looking pretty good

[swf541]

i think, if HRC wins florida, we won't be able to figure it out with official data till election day.

Pretty much it will be closer either way, and I'd expect a lot of crossover votes both ways in Florida this year.

[swf541]

nate cohn got it backwards and deleted his good news for hillary.

to switch it with even better news:

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Which should look similar in the other big early vote states. It's hilarious how everyone touted the ground game as a huge decider when the race was clearly out of hand and didn't need it, and now that they think the race is close (it actually isn't), they have no confidence in that exact same thing.

Pretty much this also explains the early vote polling showing Clinton over performing party id

[swf541]

I'm hearing conflicted things about Florida. Some people are saying that Dems have the edge, and others are saying that Republicans are doing remarkably well.

Which is it?

Read again my reply above.

Here is some better advice, dont read his post

[swf541]

ApatheticAustrians post a few posts above describes the situation quite well imo

[swf541]

Nobody can find the Trump buses that are supposed to take people to vote after the NV rally:

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That amazing ground game at work /s

[swf541]

A low turnout tie in Washoe county NV.

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

Sunday, October 30, 2016
Democratic - 1,888
Republican - 1,873
TOTAL - 4,764

At this point a tie day in Washoe favors Hillary.

All the Rural counties are closed for EV today so that leaves only Clark.

That isn't a tie, but a win for Hillary.

Yep, isnt that a 15 vote win?

[swf541]

black turnout isn't soooo extremely down.....from a high point....like everbody else's turnout is also up.

Stop feeding him, he's just emerged from his hole. He's one of the three-four posters who disappear when everything is great for Clinton then awakens to stalk us when things get even slightly wonky with peals of "I told you so!!!" Only to disappear.

Pretty much this

[swf541]

Looks like Ralston was fearmongering a bit earlier:

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  2m2 minutes ago
25,676 had voted in Clark by 6 PM. Will be relatively low, but raw votes higher than 2012.

Thats not bad at all vs 2012

[swf541]

Tom Bonier

"15% of the OH vote thus far has come from people who did not vote in '12. That universe is +4% Dem. GOP is turning out likely voters."

"22% of ballots cast in FL thus far have come from voters who didn't cast a ballot in '12. Dems have a 3% advantage among these voters."

"IA: D vote share now 0.5% ahead of '12. R vote share is 2.3% ahead of '12. Tiny D advantage as far as share who didn't vote in '12 (+0.8%)."

"Looks tough for Trump in NV (a must win):
- D's have a 44k advantage in early vote thus far
- 26.7% of D EVs didn't vote in '12, 23.7% of Rs"

Does that include Clark results from today?

[swf541]

Tom Bonier

"15% of the OH vote thus far has come from people who did not vote in '12. That universe is +4% Dem. GOP is turning out likely voters."

"22% of ballots cast in FL thus far have come from voters who didn't cast a ballot in '12. Dems have a 3% advantage among these voters."

"IA: D vote share now 0.5% ahead of '12. R vote share is 2.3% ahead of '12. Tiny D advantage as far as share who didn't vote in '12 (+0.8%)."

"Looks tough for Trump in NV (a must win):
- D's have a 44k advantage in early vote thus far
- 26.7% of D EVs didn't vote in '12, 23.7% of Rs"

Does that include Clark results from today?

Nope. Should be announced at 1 am EST.

Thanks

[swf541]

@Atlantic...what is this?

Sorry, forgot to give description. Above is the race/ethnicity breakdown of Florida early voters.

TY

since blacks and latinos seem to come out for republicans in faaar higher number than assumed, either the polls have been off,...or the unaff are really breaking hard.

High AA gop number? What the whole 10k of them if I'm reading it right is minuscule in that chart....

I imagine a lot of the Hispanic GOP is Cubans, I'm curious what if any crossover there will be

[swf541]

@Atlantic...what is this?

Sorry, forgot to give description. Above is the race/ethnicity breakdown of Florida early voters.

TY

since blacks and latinos seem to come out for republicans in faaar higher number than assumed, either the polls have been off,...or the unaff are really breaking hard.

High AA gop number? What the whole 10k of them if I'm reading it right is minuscule in that chart....

I imagine a lot of the Hispanic GOP is Cubans, I'm curious what if any crossover there will be

Against Trump? Quite a bit I would bet, especially if the highly accurate Latino poll is anywhere close to the estimated numbers. Down ballot candidates in FL will likely receive the typical share of Cuban-American votes.

I agree, I'm just very interested in seeing the margins

[swf541]

High AA gop number? What the whole 10k of them if I'm reading it right is minuscule in that chart....

I imagine a lot of the Hispanic GOP is Cubans, I'm curious what if any crossover there will be

ah, i switched AAs and "other"...my bad.

otherwise you are correct and i am blind.

No problem, was just wondering if i was missing something lol

[swf541]

I voted yesterday for Trump, McGinty, PA Att General, & PA Treasurer.

Is there a lot of McGinty/ Trump voters?

[swf541]

We've more or less passed the 50k threshold. Great news.

Great News

[swf541]

Obama also never trailed Romney in the polls in Iowa. So she needs to do more than match Obama's early vote performance.

I don't get your logic here. If she was matching Obama's early vote performance, she likely WOULDN'T be trailing in polls there...

Yea, I dont remember getting any recent Iowa polls either

[swf541]

NEBRASKA CD-2 Early Voting:

Dave Sund ‏@davesund  17m17 minutes ago
Douglas County #NE02
Returns/Early Votes 10/31:
D 25,943 47.7%
R 19,412 35.7%
I  8,742 16.1%
Total 54,419

Matt McDermott ‏@mattmfm  2m2 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Matt McDermott Retweeted Dave Sund
Huge difference from 2012 - when Dems had less than 300 vote edge in this swing district. Great news for Clinton in NE-02.

Wow! Big league lead!

Yea, great news for Ashford as well

[swf541]

This has been the best thread on this subforum all election. I'm having a ton of fun sifting through all the numbers with y'all without (too much of) the craziness from elsewhere. Let's go out with a bang, eh? Don't get to do this again for a while.

I've been really enjoying the relative sanity of this thread (plus all the numbers)

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/793438423877124096
Good news from TargetSmart regarding Florida.

1) With over 4 million ballots cast, GOP registrants outnumber Dems by 16k votes cast. That's a 0.4% advantage. However...

2) Almost 700k votes have been cast by Unaffiliated voters. And those voters skew heavily Dem, with a 13% modeled partisan advantage

3) Unaffiliated EV/AV are more likely to be Hispanic (22%), or Millennial (16%), and only 65% are white

4) Tomorrow AM we will release our latest @_TargetSmart and W&M tracking survey of Florida, including full breakouts of EV/AV.

5) I've seen the initial results, and I can say they will challenge the conventional wisdom of where the race stands. Tune in tomorrow!

Interesting

[swf541]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

North Carolina

African American voting remains depressed (currently just 85% of 2012), that’s up 3 points from our last look on the 28th (and still rising),

white voters’ performance crept up only 2 points, to 117% of 2012, and looks (for the moment, anyway) to have flattened out at that level.

So white increase flattening out while African Americans are moving up?  Thats good to see.