WV-SEN 2024: Manchin out, Justice for All

[MT Treasurer]

CLARKSBURG, W.Va. (WV News) — West Virginia’s senior U.S. senator, Joe Manchin, a Democrat, told a $5,000-a-plate lunch crowd during a recent fundraiser in Florida that he plans to run for re-election in 2024, CNBC reports.

The fundraiser, hosted by Wall Street titan Nelson Peltz at his Florida estate, fuels speculation that the Republican Party continues to court Manchin, perhaps even to run for president against President Joe Biden, CNBC reports.

Peltz has been a major donor for Republicans, and the lunch crowd of about 50 people was believed to be mostly GOP supporters.

https://www.wvnews.com/news/wvnews/report-sen-manchin-tells-fundraiser-crowd-he-will-run-for-re-election-in-2024-amid/article_1664796a-bf4e-11ec-84c2-4f8aabeb0b0e.html

[MT Treasurer]

https://twitter.com/KristenhCNN/status/1524200264017797121?t=VxjbhbPjxB7PlhzpGl0...

[MT Treasurer]

FYI (esp. gracile/New Tennessean Politician), I don’t actually think Manchin is favored to win in 2024, I’m just hesitant to declare any red state Democrat who has demonstrably cultivated such a strong brand as Manchin DOA (and I’m treating other races such as MT-SEN 2024 and [albeit to a far lesser extent] OH-SEN 2024 with the same caution, so it’s not even about Manchin per se but red state voters and asymmetric polarization in general). Red states usually don’t vote out Democratic incumbents whom they genuinely trust and (foolishly) believe to represent their values, which is why it requires particular skill/effort to deconstruct those Democratic candidates' (Daschle, Bayh, Heitkamp, Landrieu, etc.) brands. Obviously Manchin doesn’t have an actual ideology besides skilled performance art and lies (as any serious observer/insider will confirm to you - we’ve covered this topic extensively), but given that politics is basically just a game and every win another ego boost for people like him, it’s no surprise that he’s desperate to run again in 2024. If you’ve been as successful in manipulating public perception of your persona as Manchin has been in the past (and still is), you live in a bubble which is nearly impossible to escape and believe there are no limits to how far your act can get you. The man is basically a narcissist who is so self-enamored that he thinks his playbook is going to work every single time, which is why it would be all the more satisfying to finally see him go down to defeat. Now yes, it probably won’t work again in 2024, but there’s nothing wrong with erring on the side of caution, esp. 2 1/2 years before the actual election and Manchin doing extremely well in early polling (not just Morning Consult [which I agree is generally trash], but also the Triton Research survey from January, where he was leading Mooney 49-28). Manchin won in 2018 for a myriad of reasons, but one of them was the fact that he defined himself (and his opponent) way before Republicans did, and that seems to be happening again, esp. with his (purely projected) role as a kingmaker in a 50/50 Senate and attendant (extremely beneficial) media coverage. In my view, the GOP should have already run ads predicting his (inevitable) betrayal of trust with his vote for KBJ, but they didn’t do that (instead they continue to hold him up as a 'good' Democrat). Now he’s - again - going to go full MAGA after Republicans take the Senate and he’s no longer the deciding vote, which will make it far more difficult to run against him than while he’s a Democratic vote in a 50/50 Senate.

The point isn’t necessarily that Mooney will lose to Manchin, but that it will actually require some effort on the part of the GOP to beat him soundly, which is why I’m glad that Steve Daines will be picked as NRSC chairman for that cycle. If Mooney is smart, he’ll just let Daines whisper strategy/messaging into his ear. His campaign against Bullock could serve as a road map for virtually any red state Senate/House race.

[MT Treasurer]

WV Gov. Jim Justice (R) is "seriously considering" a bid against Manchin:

Justice was asked about a possible U.S. Senate run during Tuesday’s virtual briefing with reporters from the Capitol.

“From the standpoint of attention on my mind, I’m absolutely thinking really hard about it and very seriously considering running for Senate,” Justice said. “I have not made a final decision yet, but I promise you, regardless of whatever I do, I’ll be your governor for the next two years. I’m not just going to sit around and hang out. I don’t believe in that.”

Justice was asked about a possible Senate run in September by The Intelligencer when he was in Wheeling campaigning against Amendment 2, a constitutional amendment on the November ballot that would have allowed the West Virginia Legislature to eliminate six categories of tangible personal property taxes. Justice told reporter Joselyn King at the time that he was a maybe.

https://www.theintelligencer.net/news/top-headlines/2022/11/gov-justice-seriously-considering-u-s-senate-run-in-2024/

[MT Treasurer]

This race wouldn’t be particularly close with Justice, but the idea that Republicans need Justice in order for this not to be close or particularly competitive is obviously ludicrous. Daines has already indicated that Manchin (along with Brown and Tester) is going to be nuked throughout 2023 with negative ads defining him before he can reinvent himself just in time for the election. The key to winning this race is driving down Manchin's favorables among Rs/Is, and if they manage to do that, any Republican will be favored in what will be a R+40 state.

Honestly not sure which red state Democrat is most overrated at this point.

[MT Treasurer]

Comedy gold

[A]nalysts currently consider the race to either be a tossup or leaning towards the Republican Party. Should Manchin not run, analysts believe the seat will be an easy Republican pickup.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia

[MT Treasurer]

"Joe Manchin does better in presidential years than in midterm years" is a bad argument given that the number of presidential years in which Joe Manchin has run for Senate is exactly... one, and that was against an unserious opponent in a race Republicans didn’t even contest. The composition of a presidential-year electorate will definitely be more disadvantageous to Manchin than that of a midterm electorate.

[MT Treasurer]

Justice is probably the best Republican that Democrats could hope for here in a state where it’s an auto-flip no matter who the nominees are.

This is mostly just liberal cope. Justice (if he runs) is going to be a reliable vote for the national GOP's agenda, replacing a Senator who always blocked the national GOP's agenda/enabled Democratic priorities when his vote was needed and pushing the GOP one seat closer to a majority.

Whether Justice is less "outspoken" than other Republican candidates would be is completely irrelevant. It’s his vote that counts.

[MT Treasurer]

Justice is probably the best Republican that Democrats could hope for here in a state where it’s an auto-flip no matter who the nominees are.

This is mostly just liberal cope. Justice (if he runs) is going to be a reliable vote for the national GOP's agenda, replacing a Senator who always blocked the national GOP's agenda/enabled Democratic priorities when his vote was needed and pushing the GOP one seat closer to a majority.

Whether Justice is less "outspoken" than other Republican candidates would be is completely irrelevant. It’s his vote that counts.

No, Justice has remained relatively pro gay rights, for instance. If a future Republican trifecta tries to take those away (likely) better him than Mooney or one of the other crackheads.

How Justice would vote on a bill chipping away at gay marriage rights is about as relevant as entertaining how he’d vote on a bill that would end all wars. 

Justice is a reliable vote against Schumer, Manchin is (and has always been) a reliable vote for Schumer, and that’s really all there’s to it. For Democrats, there is no upside to Justice being the Republican nominee here.

[MT Treasurer]

Joe Manchin is a narcissist (that’s the biggest/only difference between him and Susan Collins), but he’s still a narcissist with a brain. The guy gets up every morning to the fact that he’s made people across the ideological spectrum buy into his shtick.

Imagine how much humiliation his ego would have suffered with a reelection loss. He probably thought he had a slight chance of pulling it off even against Justice, but he didn’t want to take the risk, preferring to leave office as the unbeatable, impossible-to-see-through Joe Manchin. Poor Joey, you can tell he really wanted to go for another one.

[MT Treasurer]

Timing of this announcement is interesting given the Dems' better-than-expected showing yesterday; he does have a way of peeing on his party's parade doesn't he?

Not really given that Beshear would have lost decisively with presidential turnout.

DDHQ estimates that 79% of Biden voters in 2020 turned out to vote, while only 53% of Trump voters voted in the 2023 Kentucky Governor election. Beshear’s ability to win over Trump voters has captured a lot of press, but many of them just sat this race out. This turnout gulf helped propel Beshear to victory, something he could not have achieved with persuasion alone. Without this substantial turnout advantage, Beshear would have lost handily.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/how-democrat-andy-beshear-won-re-election-in-deep-red-kentucky/