CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

On another tangent, oh God
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1374935649787121664

Digging into twitter more, I found this site which claims that Newsom is having an affair with a staffer.

I would consider this unverified until a better source comes along, but this could be it.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

I’m honestly kind of underwhelmed? Like I thought this was going to be “Gavin groped a staffer” or “Gavin made up the metrics he used to reopen the state early”

Based on how overblown folks are making it in the last 24 hours (Whatever "it" even is right now), it was never gonna be as juicy as the suspense made it seem.

Also, haven't seen anything juicy outside of that one Cerritos site. And with the announcement of eligibility requirements being lifted in 3 weeks, I'm sure it'll be buried today (Though I'm sure the timing will bring about conspiracies).

Though that also makes me wonder where this rumor mill started in the last 24 hours. Random Twitter? "Anonymous sources"? Just seems like typical forum overreaction (Not even getting into the airport & Wikipedia edits discussion).

From what I’m hearing, it started in the Capitol.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Just realized there's Wikipedia election article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_California_gubernatorial_recall_election

I think it’s pretty new. I don’t recall there being one last week when I was trying to look it up.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Caitlyn Jenner may run for governor of California, according to new report

A report from Axios states that Jenner has been privately consulting with political advisors about being a candidate, making her incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom's biggest opponent yet, if the rumors are true.

lol

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Caitlyn Jenner may run for governor of California, according to new report

A report from Axios states that Jenner has been privately consulting with political advisors about being a candidate, making her incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom's biggest opponent yet, if the rumors are true.

lol

She’d probably be the least embarrassed/fascistic Republican the party can put forward

The problem with her is that being a transgender woman is a great way to alienate Republicans and being a Republican is a great way to alienate Democrats.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Seems like the BIG REVELATION was the affair thing. Any Democrat who's smart, especially Villa, is going to hold their fire until closer to the election when we can see if Gavin is touchable or not.

The only outlet I saw bring up the story was that Cerritos one. And is there a deadline for when replacement candidates can qualify for the recall? I guess it depends when the recall qualifies, but doesn't it have to be voted on in like 120 days?

Basically what I gather is that somewhere in the grand Sacramento game of telephone, someone misinterpreted “Los Cerritos Times” or whatever as something slightly different, which wasn’t an actual outlet but also wasn’t debunkable as a hack outlet. And this led to the rumor mill spinning out of control.

No idea when people have to qualify for the recall and I’m too tired to look it up

Yeah, I have no idea either. Not holding my breath at this point in regards to the potential scandal.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Feels like this thread is on life support until the recall verification (+ "Here we go" & "It's on" posts).

And even after that, I feel this is gonna be a very uneventful recall unless COVID recovery goes down the toilet in the next 2 months.

Yeah, things are on track for a decent recovery imo. Covid rates are low and vaccination rates are going nowhere but up.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

I will say, I'll laugh if Caitlyn Jenner ends up getting more votes than Ose, Cox, Grenell or Falconer

She’d probably beat Ose

Endorsed. California did so well under the Terminator, I can only imagine we'd do even better under a Transformer.



(Have a sense of humor YE, for god's sake)

Lol

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Guess who has a better chance of becoming mayor of Eureka than Jenner does at becoming governor?

Kevin de Leon?

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1386802857047851009?s=19

Given that CA has, what, 15M+ registered voters, it feels as though 1.5M seems like a very low threshold for a recall.

The recall and initiative guidelines were voted in place in 1911 and definitely should be updated I think Hiram Johnson had no clue how big the state would end up getting. I think it should probably be something like 25% of registered voters instead of 12 % of ballots cast in the last election especially with us having our elections in lower turnout midterms. I am a fan of having the ballot initiative process we have passed many laws it would take much longer to get through the state leg but it does have its downsides. and now its easy for corporations to buys laws (Prop 22 and 23)

That's an excellent reason to be *NOT* a big fan of ballot initiatives.

Pretty much all direct democracy "reforms" have been basically hijacked by political extremists and interests in order to push through policies that voters have barely thought about. Brexit is the biggest, most clear example of this but California's history of bad policies being pushed through the ballot should be warning enough.

Yeah, the biggest issues with the current recall/initiative system is the low signature requirement as well as how constitutional amendments only require 50%+1. Fortunately, Prop 22 (the Uber one) wasn’t an amendment, but it’s 7/8ths majority requirement for changes is extraordinarily odious.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

https://twitter.com/Elex_Michaelson/status/1389343867325992960
CA GOP.... What happened to you?

Well they gave me an idea for a new username. PizzaGaetz was getting rather stale.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

https://twitter.com/Elex_Michaelson/status/1389343867325992960
CA GOP.... What happened to you?

Well they gave me an idea for a new username. PizzaGaetz was getting rather stale.

FubartSolman and clever displaynames. Name a more iconic duo.

California Republicans and crazy campaign gimmicks? Granted, it did work for Ahnold.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1392882220470206465

Despite my intention to vote no in the recall, I’ll still be voting in the contingency election to hypothetically replace Newsom. Might vote for her if there’s not a legitimate liberal candidate.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Assemblyman Kevin Kiley (R-some Placer County suburb) is in

Rocklin, I think. Not that any of the Placer County suburbs are distinguishable in any way, shape, or form.
- a proud resident of Sacramento County and not so proud resident of Kiley’s district

He’s one of the most pro-Covid politicians I know of in California.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Still a clown.
https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1410916638896107524

If Jenner were somehow the Republican gubernatorial nominee in the regularly scheduled election next year, she would lose by the same 60-40% margin that Republicans typically lose by in California nowadays.

Think about the sort of people who are still Republican in California nowadays-Evangelicals in SoCal exurbia, Central Valley farmers, and diehard anti-Communist Vietnamese immigrants. Hard to see any of them being particularly fond of a transwoman candidate for governor.

The State of Jefferson folks aren’t gonna be fertile ground for her either.

Also, Garcetti got picked for Ambassador to India, so if confirmed, he won’t be a threat.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

So as I understand it, the recall ends if Newsom resigns - making the Lt Gov Eleni Kounalakis the new Governor.

Is there any legal reason why Newsom can't just resign, have Kounalakis appoint him as the new Lt. Gov, have her resign, and then re-appoint her as Lt Gov?

The optics on that would be horrible to say the least. I could see Newsom resigning a day or two before the recall if it looks like he’s definitely going to lose though. I don’t see any of this musical chairs type stuff happening.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

It’s kind of a bad look to admit the mail in ballots will “save” newsome

Openly confessing what the gop has been saying: mail in ballots are a ploy to help democrats

It’s an abuse. In my view.

Elected officials using taxpayer money to personally solve their turnout problems is an appalling betrayal of public trust.

Governments shouldn’t make it hard to vote, but they also shouldn’t be in the business of maximizing turnout either.

If a Mexican in imperial county doesn’t care about the recall, who cares? If a 21 year old college student doesn’t care, why should the govt try to get them to vote?

So, more people having access to vote is bad? Ok then.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Of course I voted against the Recall models predict a 291/304 map and a 51 or 52 S and 220 H either way, VA, NJ, Cali, PA, GA, WI, AZ and NV we are tied or leading in Govs and Senate

but of course? What else could be expected?

Death, it’s inevitable

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Got my sample ballot in the mail. I appreciate how one of my former state senators/current BoE member, one of my former congressmen, and my current assemblyman are all running (and I haven’t changed addresses in the time that any of them served me.

I’m extremely tempted to just write my own name in there. If it wasn’t for my employer, I should’ve ran a “Vote No on the Recall, Vote for me and I’ll resign and let Kounalakis take over” ticket.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Got my sample ballot in the mail. I appreciate how one of my former state senators/current BoE member, one of my former congressmen, and my current assemblyman are all running (and I haven’t changed addresses in the time that any of them served me.

I’m extremely tempted to just write my own name in there. If it wasn’t for my employer, I should’ve ran a “Vote No on the Recall, Vote for me and I’ll resign and let Kounalakis take over” ticket.

lmfao, amazing, Gaines, Ose, and Kiley. Three irrelevant people running.

Kiley has had some traction, but I’m not sure I’ve even seen polling with Gaines and Ose. Gaines especially seemed like a last minute “why not?” entry.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Newsom's approval is barely above water and people can't stand his policies. CA is one of the highest taxed states in the nation, and obviously as we know, nobody likes taxes. Hispanics approve of the recall too and many are disappointed with Newsom's lax measures on immigration. He fails to enforce the laws. As of today, I do think Newsom would be narrowly recalled.



Yes - 53%
No - 46%

This map looks like a repeat of the 2003 gubernatorial recall map, and it seems to be a very plausible one.

On no planet will SLO vote against recall while Imperial votes for it.

Same with Humboldt

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

A Federal lawsuit is arguing that California's recall provisions are unconstitutional.

Two California voters are challenging the legality of the state’s recall system less than a month before the Sept. 14 election, echoing concerns from constitutional scholars as Gov. Gavin Newsom fights for his political life.

A complaint filed in U.S. District Court for the Central District of California argues that the state's recall provision violates the equal protection clause of the U.S. Constitution by allowing sitting governors to be replaced by candidates who have received fewer votes. The plaintiffs, Rex Julian Beaber and A.W. Clark, want a court order either prohibiting the recall election or adding Newsom's name to the replacement candidate list. Elections officials have already sent millions of ballots ahead of a state deadline today.


Gubernatorial recalls in California involve a two-part ballot. Voters are asked whether to recall the sitting governor, then who should replace the governor. If a majority of voters oust Newsom, whichever candidate receives the most votes on the second question would replace him.

That allows a replacement candidate to be elected with a small plurality — and potentially with far fewer votes than the number of votes cast to keep the current governor. While polls show Newsom in a tight race to stay in office, the leading Republican contender to replace Newsom has consistently registered support from a quarter or less of the electorate.

As somebody who opposes recalls in general because impeachment exists (see: NY) & the Newsom recall in particular because it's stupid as f**k, this attempted application of federal constitutional principles is quite possibly one of the most ludicrous constitutional arguments which I've ever seen put forth in court.

The Californian recall process as provided for by Sections 13-19 of Article II of the California Constitution & given effect to by the California Elections Code results in 2 separate elections being conducted on the same ballot. The principle of individuals being afforded equal representation in voting applies to both of those elections: each person who votes on the recall question has one vote, each of which equally impacts the ultimate material outcome of said question (i.e., to recall or not to recall); likewise, each person who votes on the replacement question has one vote, each of which equally impacts the ultimate material outcome of said question (i.e., which replacement candidate obtains a plurality, wins that question, & thus becomes Governor in the event that a majority voted "Yes" on the recall question). Contrary to this suit's assertions, nowhere in determining the outcomes of those questions is a denial of equal protection provided for. If at the end of the day, there were more votes cast for "No" on the recall question than there were for the plurality winner of the replacement question, then tough cookies: that's not a denial of equal protection, given that A.) they're separate elections; & B.) the recalled official isn't permitted to compete on the 2nd question. If that latter aspect is somehow unconstitutional &/or a denial of the recalled official's supporters' equal protection, then I guess California's lifetime 2 term-limit for state officers is also unconstitutional in the same fashion, given that it - taking the aforementioned argument to its logical extension, anyway - denies the equal protection of supporters of term-limited officers by disenfranchising them.

Now, it's one thing to have a problem with the fact that only a plurality is required to win the second question in the event that the result of the first question needs to be given effect to, but unless there's now some previously unheard-of theorem out there stipulating that plurality elections in & of themselves are unconstitutional (which is just, y'know, lol), that's a question of electoral policy left to the political process rather than constitutional principles left to the legal process. If one has such a problem, then the only correct avenue for correcting that problem would be to call for the ratification of an amendment to the plurality provision in Section 15(c) of Article II of the California Constitution, because by no means is there any federal constitutional question of law that's at play in this here.

Tbh, to me as a Californian, the most unconstitutional thing that I can think of is that the recall doesn’t result in a top two. Not saying that I think that this case has merit, but I don’t think that the Equal Protection Clause is the way to go. But I’m not a lawyer. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Ose OUT after heart attack

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Lets say Newsom gets recalled, what could a Republican Governor do with a Democratic state legislature with veto-proof super majorities?

Cut ribbons & not much else.

Appoint a couple offices, which was actually the focus of the speech that Larry gave to the Orange County GOP on Monday night.

Could the legislature overrule a governor and impose a mask mandate?

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Still trying to decide who to vote for in the second question. Kinda leaning toward Angelyne tbh. Completely nuts, but with no base, so the legislature could just impeach her immediately.